Inteldiction
Archives
Search...
Log in
Subscribe
Anthropic IPO odds crash 78 points to 3.5%
September 21, 2026
Monday, September 21, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's two loudest signals point in opposite directions. AI-listing optimism has evaporated (Anthropic's IPO odds...
Bitcoin $80K touch at 70%, the $80K close at 3%
September 18, 2026
Friday, September 18, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Bitcoin markets on today's board can't both be relaxed. One says a $80K touch in September is more likely than...
A 95% Fed hike next to 14.5% recession odds
September 16, 2026
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · Edition 1 The board wants a hawkish Fed and a soft landing at the same time. A 95.1% chance of a 2026 rate hike sits next to...
Fed hike odds jump to 80.5%, cuts off the table
September 14, 2026
Monday, September 14, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed is having a moment on this board, and it is not the one economists spent the summer forecasting. The single...
The Fed is hiking, crypto didn't get the memo
September 11, 2026
Friday, September 11, 2026 · Edition 1 The board is quietly repricing the Fed from "on hold" to "hiking," and crypto did not get the memo. A September hike...
Foldable iPhone at 28% to hit $2,000, and a Fed puzzle
September 9, 2026
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · Edition 1 Two markets can agree the base case is boring and still tell you different stories. Today the board prices Apple's...
Two ceasefires, 82 points apart on the board
September 7, 2026
Monday, September 7, 2026 · Edition 1 Two ceasefire markets, two verdicts. The board heavily favors the Israel-Iran truce holding at 87.5% while giving...
BOJ moves, the Fed waits: two rate clocks diverge
September 2, 2026
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Edition 1 Two central banks, two directions. Traders now price a BOJ move in September at near-certainty while betting the Fed...
Two Iran markets disagree: 0.9% vs 31%
August 31, 2026
Monday, August 31, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Iran markets can't quite agree on how calm the Persian Gulf is. One says the crisis is over. The other still prices a...
Anthropic IPO at 94.5%, its $4T valuation at 10%
August 28, 2026
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Edition 1 Two AI markets, one message: the market heavily favors Anthropic going public this year, but not at the price the bulls...
Bitcoin crash odds fall as Fed cuts stay off the table
August 26, 2026
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Edition 1 Two markets on today's board can't both be right. Crypto is walking back its crash fears just as the rate market digs...
Anthropic IPO at 82%, its $4T valuation at 10%
August 25, 2026
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's loudest contradiction lives inside one company. The crowd has moved Anthropic's IPO to near-certain while...
Two Anthropic markets disagree, and so does crypto
August 21, 2026
Friday, August 21, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Anthropic markets are pulling in different directions, and the crypto board can't decide whether Bitcoin's run and...
Bitcoin says $72.5K yes, just not today
August 20, 2026
Thursday, August 20, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Bitcoin markets are looking at the same coin and disagreeing about time. And on the quiet end of the board, two...
Russia peace at 97.6%, the front line at 3.6%
August 19, 2026
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · Edition 1 The board is telling two stories about the same war. A Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting is priced as all but certain,...
Iran ceasefire hits 94.5%, Hormuz shrugs
August 17, 2026
Monday, August 17, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's biggest mover this month is peace, not war: the Israel-Iran ceasefire jumped 54 points to 94.5%. But the...
The Fed can't price both an October cut and a hike
August 16, 2026
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · Edition 1 Three tension flags dominate today's board, and two of them point at Ukraine. Separately, the Fed board is holding a...
Fed hike at 45.5%, two cuts at 4.4%: the easing case fades
August 15, 2026
Saturday, August 15, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board is arguing with itself. A hike in 2026 sits at 45.5%, nearly a coin flip, while exactly two cuts is...
Big money, flat quotes: Hamas at 42.5%, Ossoff at 9.4%
August 14, 2026
Friday, August 14, 2026 · Edition 1 Four markets moved a lot of money today without moving their price a single cent. That pattern, size arriving into a flat...
Anthropic IPO leaps to 70%, $4T mark still at 11%
August 13, 2026
Thursday, August 13, 2026 · Edition 1 Anthropic is the story on two contracts, and they don't quite agree. The market now leans heavily toward a public...
Older archives