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Moscow strike at 31%, Israel-Iran calm at 73.5%
October 7, 2026
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · Edition 1 Two active conflict zones sit on today's board, and the market prices them in opposite directions: a Moscow strike...
Bab el-Mandeb draws 14x volume, price won't move
October 5, 2026
Monday, October 5, 2026 · Edition 1 The board is pricing calm everywhere except where the money is quietly stacking up. Geopolitical risk markets are...
Anthropic's October odds crater to 39%, December holds
October 2, 2026
Friday, October 2, 2026 · Edition 1 The AI leaderboard is the loudest fight on the board today, and it is having an argument with itself: Anthropic's October...
The Fed board disagrees with itself: October vs December
September 30, 2026
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board contradicts itself. October now prices a hold as the base case (55.5%), while December has swung hard...
The Fed board argues: October pause out, December hike in
September 28, 2026
Monday, September 28, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board is arguing with itself. Two markets on the same central bank, two meetings apart, and they cannot both...
Ethereum's $2,250 dip odds collapse 44 points
September 25, 2026
Friday, September 25, 2026 · Edition 1 Ethereum is telling two stories at once. The market has abandoned a $2,250 dip (down 44 points in a month, the second-...
Dopropillia resolves at 100%, ceasefire holds at 37%
September 23, 2026
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · Edition 1 The board can't reconcile its own war. Russia's capture of Dopropillia sits resolved at 100%, the second-biggest...
Anthropic IPO odds crash 78 points to 3.5%
September 21, 2026
Monday, September 21, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's two loudest signals point in opposite directions. AI-listing optimism has evaporated (Anthropic's IPO odds...
Bitcoin $80K touch at 70%, the $80K close at 3%
September 18, 2026
Friday, September 18, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Bitcoin markets on today's board can't both be relaxed. One says a $80K touch in September is more likely than...
A 95% Fed hike next to 14.5% recession odds
September 16, 2026
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · Edition 1 The board wants a hawkish Fed and a soft landing at the same time. A 95.1% chance of a 2026 rate hike sits next to...
Fed hike odds jump to 80.5%, cuts off the table
September 14, 2026
Monday, September 14, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed is having a moment on this board, and it is not the one economists spent the summer forecasting. The single...
The Fed is hiking, crypto didn't get the memo
September 11, 2026
Friday, September 11, 2026 · Edition 1 The board is quietly repricing the Fed from "on hold" to "hiking," and crypto did not get the memo. A September hike...
Foldable iPhone at 28% to hit $2,000, and a Fed puzzle
September 9, 2026
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · Edition 1 Two markets can agree the base case is boring and still tell you different stories. Today the board prices Apple's...
Two ceasefires, 82 points apart on the board
September 7, 2026
Monday, September 7, 2026 · Edition 1 Two ceasefire markets, two verdicts. The board heavily favors the Israel-Iran truce holding at 87.5% while giving...
BOJ moves, the Fed waits: two rate clocks diverge
September 2, 2026
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · Edition 1 Two central banks, two directions. Traders now price a BOJ move in September at near-certainty while betting the Fed...
Two Iran markets disagree: 0.9% vs 31%
August 31, 2026
Monday, August 31, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Iran markets can't quite agree on how calm the Persian Gulf is. One says the crisis is over. The other still prices a...
Anthropic IPO at 94.5%, its $4T valuation at 10%
August 28, 2026
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Edition 1 Two AI markets, one message: the market heavily favors Anthropic going public this year, but not at the price the bulls...
Bitcoin crash odds fall as Fed cuts stay off the table
August 26, 2026
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Edition 1 Two markets on today's board can't both be right. Crypto is walking back its crash fears just as the rate market digs...
Anthropic IPO at 82%, its $4T valuation at 10%
August 25, 2026
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's loudest contradiction lives inside one company. The crowd has moved Anthropic's IPO to near-certain while...
Two Anthropic markets disagree, and so does crypto
August 21, 2026
Friday, August 21, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Anthropic markets are pulling in different directions, and the crypto board can't decide whether Bitcoin's run and...
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