Inteldiction

Apple jumps 26 points in the race to stay #1

November 4, 2026

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Edition 1 Two races for the top of the market-cap chart are running at once, and the board can't decide which matters more....

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Google: best AI model at 53%, biggest company at 1.3%

November 2, 2026

Monday, November 2, 2026 · Edition 1 Google is the puzzle of the day. The board gives it a coin-flip shot at the best AI model by year-end but only a 1.3%...

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Apple and NVIDIA both claim the crown at 52%

October 30, 2026

Friday, October 30, 2026 · Edition 1 Two of today's markets hand the same crown to different kings: Apple leads the "largest company" race at 51.7% for...

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NATO clash odds fall to 15.5%, ceasefire stuck at 0.9%

October 28, 2026

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Edition 1 Two markets this board can't reconcile on the same chokepoint: NATO-Russia clash odds fell 14 points in a month to...

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Crude says calm, Hormuz desk says 21.5%

October 26, 2026

Monday, October 26, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Iran prices refuse to agree. Oil markets have priced out a crude spike almost entirely, while the diplomatic track...

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Fed pauses in October, hikes 72.5% in December

October 23, 2026

Friday, October 23, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board tells one story in two halves: a near-lock to hold next week, then a hike before year-end. That pause-...

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Anthropic at $2T, but its model just fell to 17.5%

October 21, 2026

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Anthropic markets tell incompatible stories. One prices the company at $2T by year-end; the other just gutted its...

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Google AI jumps to 71%, collapse bet holds at 8%

October 19, 2026

Monday, October 19, 2026 · Edition 1 Two things are true on the AI board at once, and they don't fit together. Google's claim to the best model just put up...

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Google's AI odds jump to 70% as Anthropic slips

October 16, 2026

Friday, October 16, 2026 · Edition 1 The AI leaderboard just reordered itself. Google's odds of holding the top model went from roughly 10% to 70% in a...

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The Fed hold splits: 80.5% October, 21.5% December

October 14, 2026

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · Edition 1 The macro board is running a two-step. The October Fed hold is heavily favored at 80.5%, but December flips: only a...

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Bitcoin's board bets on $90K and $70K at once

October 12, 2026

Monday, October 12, 2026 · Edition 1 The Bitcoin board is arguing with itself. The same event window holds a 65% chance of a sprint to $90K and a one-in-...

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Moscow strike at 31%, Israel-Iran calm at 73.5%

October 7, 2026

Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · Edition 1 Two active conflict zones sit on today's board, and the market prices them in opposite directions: a Moscow strike...

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Bab el-Mandeb draws 14x volume, price won't move

October 5, 2026

Monday, October 5, 2026 · Edition 1 The board is pricing calm everywhere except where the money is quietly stacking up. Geopolitical risk markets are...

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Anthropic's October odds crater to 39%, December holds

October 2, 2026

Friday, October 2, 2026 · Edition 1 The AI leaderboard is the loudest fight on the board today, and it is having an argument with itself: Anthropic's October...

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The Fed board disagrees with itself: October vs December

September 30, 2026

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board contradicts itself. October now prices a hold as the base case (55.5%), while December has swung hard...

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The Fed board argues: October pause out, December hike in

September 28, 2026

Monday, September 28, 2026 · Edition 1 The Fed board is arguing with itself. Two markets on the same central bank, two meetings apart, and they cannot both...

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Ethereum's $2,250 dip odds collapse 44 points

September 25, 2026

Friday, September 25, 2026 · Edition 1 Ethereum is telling two stories at once. The market has abandoned a $2,250 dip (down 44 points in a month, the second-...

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Dopropillia resolves at 100%, ceasefire holds at 37%

September 23, 2026

Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · Edition 1 The board can't reconcile its own war. Russia's capture of Dopropillia sits resolved at 100%, the second-biggest...

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Anthropic IPO odds crash 78 points to 3.5%

September 21, 2026

Monday, September 21, 2026 · Edition 1 The board's two loudest signals point in opposite directions. AI-listing optimism has evaporated (Anthropic's IPO odds...

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Bitcoin $80K touch at 70%, the $80K close at 3%

September 18, 2026

Friday, September 18, 2026 · Edition 1 Two Bitcoin markets on today's board can't both be relaxed. One says a $80K touch in September is more likely than...

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