The Fed board contradicts itself: 86% no cuts, 57% hike
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Edition 1 Two of today's markets sit inside a foot of each other and still can't agree. The Fed board prices an 86% chance of no...
The Fed's dovish case is now "no cuts," hike at 60%
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · Edition 1 The macro board is holding two ideas that don't sit easily together: an 85.4% chance the Fed cuts nothing in 2026, and a...
Hormuz normalization now a 22.5% bet
Friday, June 12, 2026 — Edition 1 Three of today's four markets sit on the Iran fault line, and they all point the same direction: traders are betting the...
Hormuz disruption is structural, but crude says $150 won't come
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 — Edition 1 A theme runs through today's markets: traders are pricing the Strait of Hormuz disruption as structural, not temporary —...
Hormuz disruption priced as permanent at 11.5%
Monday, June 8, 2026 — Edition 1 Hormuz is the thread today. Three markets price the Strait's disruption as structural, not temporary — and an oil market...
Hormuz reprices to 12.5%, Saylor stays furniture
Sunday, June 7, 2026 — Edition 1 The thread today is Iran. Two of the three markets we are watching price the Strait of Hormuz disruption as durable, not...
Hormuz at 4.5%, Fed at zero, BTC out of time
Pricing the timeline on every nice thing you wanted to happen this summer.