The Vigilant // SITREP Index 62 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 62 (Elevated), -1 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Monday, September 28, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH Trump doubles down on claims US will win war with Iran ‘one way or another’ as talks are in doubt – US politics live — Guardian
HIGH Russian Drone Strikes Ukraine’s Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center — NYT
HIGH Myanmar army air strike kills dozens in Rakhine state — AlJazeera
HIGH Trump says US will win Iran war 'very soon' — Reuters
HIGH US to grant sanctions waiver for flights between Iran and Iraq’s Najaf, source says — SCMP
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ Iran | -2 | 74.4 (-2.5) |
| ▼ United Kingdom | -2 | 63.1 (-2.5) |
| ▲ United States | +1 | 83.8 (+0.5) |
| ▼ Russia | -1 | 83.5 (-0.5) |
| ▲ Ukraine | +1 | 74.2 (+2) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| United States | 83.8 | ▲ +0.5 | 70 | 98 |
| Russia | 83.5 | ▼ -0.5 | 88 | 79 |
| Iran | 74.4 | ▼ -2.5 | 68 | 81 |
| Ukraine | 74.2 | ▲ +2 | 83 | 65 |
| India | 68.4 | — 0 | 86 | 51 |
| United Kingdom | 63.1 | ▼ -2.5 | 48 | 78 |
| China | 54.6 | ▲ +1.5 | 50 | 59 |
| Israel | 43.7 | ▼ -2 | 51 | 36 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 0 locations
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 7/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.1% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -1.3% / QQQ -0.7% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +2.8% vs XLP -3.6% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $83,253 · Mayer 1.17 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +15.0% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 74/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 765.61 | ▼0.74% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 736.53 | ▼1.07% |
| Dow Jones | 514.02 | ▼0.67% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 377.91 | ▼3.94% |
| Crude Oil | 150.01 | ▲1.13% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.79 | ▲1.08% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 83384 | ▼1.59% |
| Ethereum | 2673 | ▼0.69% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.18% | +0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼0.89% | Finance ▼1.17% | Energy ▲0.1% |
| Health ▲0.33% | Consumer ▼1.41% | Industrial ▼0.97% |
| Staples ▲0.27% | Utilities ▼0.66% | Materials ▼0.66% |
| Real Est ▼0.51% | Comms ▼1.58% | Semis ▼1.08% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime band is fair, best monitoring from 20:00‑23:00 UTC; 80‑40 m night is good, optimal 23:00‑02:00 UTC. 30‑20 m day is good, 20:00‑23:00 UTC; night fair, 23:00‑02:00 UTC. 17‑15 m day fair, 20:00‑22:00 UTC; night poor, avoid. 12‑10 m both day and night poor, not recommended.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station; monitoring may reflect Russian strategic messaging amid heightened instability (Russia index 83.5). Russian Navy HF (RU) provides military traffic, relevant given recent Russian drone strikes in Ukraine reported by NYT. PLA HF Network (CN) is of note as China’s index rises to 54.6 and Beijing faces sanctions discussions linked to Iran. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) offers utility traffic useful for NATO coordination as the United Kingdom’s instability eases (index 63.1). Radio Free Asia (US) continues US broadcast activity while US instability climbs (index 83.8) and political rhetoric intensifies.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with reports of Russian drone strikes in Ukraine (NYT) and near Poland (KyivPost). US time‑signal stations (WWV, WWVH, BPM) operate amid US political statements on Iran (Guardian, Reuters). Chinese time‑signal BPM coincides with China’s modest index rise and regional sanctions context. No reporting directly involves Cuban, Korean, or Mexican stations; they remain unchanged.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz (UVB‑76) 20:00‑02:00 UTC; 4445 kHz (Russian Navy HF) 20:00‑02:00 UTC; 8300 kHz (PLA HF) 20:00‑23:00 UTC; 6998 kHz (NATO STANAG 4285) 23:00‑02:00 UTC; 10000 kHz (WWV/WWVH/BPM) continuous.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 97 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 3 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B6.8 | WIND 323 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Fair |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 32d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 17d · last update Sep 28 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Zoom — Service Degradation Affecting Customer Using Polycom Devices Going Offline minor · since Sep 25 · ongoing 3d · last update Sep 28 |
Internet Disruptions
| GOV-DIRECTED | Iraq regional Exam shutdown (special round started Sep 26 and runs through Oct 10) · Earthlink-DMCC-IQ, HulumTele Sep 28 03:30Z–03:45Z |
| UNKNOWN | Unknown network A disruption caused a complete outage of Internet traffic from Fanap Telecom (AS206065) in Iran. · FDI Sep 27 22:00Z–00:45Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — north of Svalbard |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — 231 km WSW of Port McNeill, Canada [TSUNAMI] |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 60 km NE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 190 km WSW of Port McNeill, Canada [TSUNAMI] |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 67 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 78 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region |
| M5 | Earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ONE-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (10.248 million in |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| EXTREME | Ukraine cold | -10.1°F | +2.3mm |
| MODERATE | Mediterranean cold | -7.6°F | +2.9mm |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +7°F | -0.3mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -6.8°F | -0.1mm |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +6.3°F | -0.7mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Mexico could see life-threatening floods due to Hurricane Polo
GOVERNMENT Justice Department Announces Charges and Guilty Pleas Involving 12 Individuals for Election C…
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Russian Drone Strikes Near Yahodyn Border Crossing With Poland Again
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Florida seeks a ban on ChatGPT acting like a person
TECHNOLOGY Open source datacenters and open source thinking will undo self-inflicted DC damage
BUSINESS & MARKETS US sanctions on Iran's aviation industry make travel less predictable as countries cancel fli…
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
Outside the Wire
Coverage surfaced by topic, not outlet — what the fixed source roster can’t see.
Refrigeration Failures at Military Commissaries Draw Scrutiny Over Infrastructure Security – NaturalNews. com — naturalnews.com
The Source |Today In Hip Hop History: Method Man and Redman Released Their Joint Debut LP Blackout! 27 Years Ago — thesource.com
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.