The Vigilant // SITREP Index 60 Elevated · Stable
SITREP Index 60 (Elevated), 0 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Tuesday, September 29, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH Dozens Killed in Myanmar Military Bombing — NYT
HIGH US sanctions 10 over allegedly procuring weapons for Iran — Reuters
HIGH Iran’s currency hits a new record low as war erodes the country’s economic stability — AP
HIGH How the moon and sun may trigger slow earthquakes on Earth — PhysOrg
HIGH Yemen’s war disrupts roads and ports, deepening humanitarian crisis — AlJazeera
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ Iran | -2 | 62.9 (-2.5) |
| ▲ China | +2 | 53.6 (+5.5) |
| ▲ Israel | +2 | 51.2 (+2.5) |
| ▼ North Korea | -2 | 10.5 (-2.5) |
| ▼ Russia | -1 | 83.5 (-0.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 83.5 | ▼ -0.5 | 88 | 79 |
| United States | 73.8 | ▲ +1.5 | 70 | 78 |
| Ukraine | 68.6 | — 0 | 83 | 54 |
| Iran | 62.9 | ▼ -2.5 | 68 | 58 |
| India | 62.4 | ▲ +1.5 | 86 | 39 |
| United Kingdom | 57.1 | ▼ -2.5 | 48 | 66 |
| China | 53.6 | ▲ +5.5 | 50 | 57 |
| Israel | 51.2 | ▲ +2.5 | 51 | 51 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 0 locations
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 7/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.3% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -1.1% / QQQ -1.3% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +3.0% vs XLP -3.7% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $83,494 · Mayer 1.17 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +19.7% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 73/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 764.2 | ▼0.18% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 737.93 | ▲0.19% |
| Dow Jones | 512.88 | ▼0.22% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 382.9 | ▲1.32% |
| Crude Oil | 143.35 | ▼4.44% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.68 | ▼0.66% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | — | |
| Ethereum | — | |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.17% | -0.01% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼0.02% | Finance ▼0.33% | Energy ▼0.9% |
| Health ▼0.31% | Consumer ▲0.14% | Industrial ▲0.21% |
| Staples ▼0.52% | Utilities ▲1.2% | Materials ▼0.75% |
| Real Est ▼0.02% | Comms ▲0.26% | Semis ▲1.15% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m daytime good, night fair; 17‑15 m daytime fair, night poor; 12‑10 m both poor. Best windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m, then 23‑02 on 80‑40 m night.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a barometer of Russian state messaging amid a high instability index. SKYKING/EAM (US) reflects US military communications while the United States index rises and sanctions on Iran are announced. RWM (RU) time‑signal offers a reliable Russian baseline for monitoring any shifts linked to the Myanmar bombing coverage. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) is useful given the United Kingdom’s declining instability score and broader NATO posture.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations are observed against a high Russian index (83.5) and the Myanmar bombing report, which may influence Russian strategic messaging. US stations align with a rising US index (73.8) and recent US sanctions on entities tied to Iran, highlighting potential shifts in US‑Iran signaling. Chinese time‑signal BPM is noted but no current report directly involves China; its index remains moderate (53.6). No supplied report directly concerns the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, Japan, or Cuba, so their stations are not linked to specific events today.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 UTC 20‑23; 8992 kHz SKYKING/EAM UTC 20‑23; 9996 kHz RWM UTC 23‑02; 6998 kHz NATO STANAG 4285 UTC 23‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 95 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 3 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B3.5 | WIND 284 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Fair |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 33d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | OpenAI — Partial System Degradation minor |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 18d · last update Sep 28 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Zoom — Service Degradation Affecting Customer Using Polycom Devices Going Offline minor · since Sep 25 · ongoing 4d · last update Sep 29 |
Internet Disruptions
| GOV-DIRECTED | Iraq regional Exam shutdown (special round started Sep 26 and runs through Oct 10) · Earthlink-DMCC-IQ, HulumTele Sep 28 03:30Z–03:45Z |
| UNKNOWN | Unknown network A disruption caused a complete outage of Internet traffic from Fanap Telecom (AS206065) in Iran. · FDI Sep 27 22:00Z–00:45Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.6 | Earthquake — southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — 99 km SSE of Pangai, Tonga |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 76 km NE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5 | Earthquake — 58 km NW of Pante Makasar, Timor Leste |
| M5 | Earthquake — 77 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| RED | TC — Red notification for tropical cyclone POLO-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.222 million . |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -9°F | +2.3mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -8.6°F | -0.1mm |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +7.6°F | -0.3mm |
| MODERATE | Mediterranean cold | -7.2°F | +2.6mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Wind whips Mexico’s northern Pacific coast, and some streets flood as Hurricane Polo bears down
GOVERNMENT LIVE: Weighing nuclear risks amid rising tensions and war
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Opinion | Why Iran May Be America’s Last Mideast War
CYBER & SECURITY Apple patches CoreGraphics zero-day already exploited in targeted attacks
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Here's what actually happened in OpenAI's Australian gov't server hack
TECHNOLOGY Open source tool distills Jev so you can run it locally
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
Outside the Wire
Coverage surfaced by topic, not outlet — what the fixed source roster can’t see.
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief, release of frozen funds — vanguardngr.com
Why Israel fears settlement sanctions are just the beginning — irishtimes.com
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.