The Vigilant // SITREP Index 32 Low · De-escalating
SITREP Index 32 (Low), -2 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Saturday, September 26, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL South African white genocide does not exist, new ambassador to US tells BBC — BBC
CRITICAL Breaking and entering: How parasites prepare host cells for invasion — PhysOrg
HIGH Lavrov: Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue ‘through to the end’ — AlJazeera
HIGH At least 16 people killed as Russia and Ukraine trade deadly air strikes — France24
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ United States | -8 | 39.5 (-7) |
| ▼ Iran | -8 | 28 (-7) |
| ▼ Yemen | -5 | 31.9 (-7) |
| ▼ Israel | -4 | 15 (-2) |
| ▼ Pakistan | -4 | 13 (-6.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Ukraine | 63.3 | ▲ +0.5 | 84 | 43 |
| United States | 39.5 | ▼ -7 | 0 | 79 |
| China | 33.5 | ▲ +1.5 | 0 | 67 |
| Russia | 32 | ▲ +1.5 | 0 | 64 |
| Yemen | 31.9 | ▼ -7 | 52 | 12 |
| Iran | 28 | ▼ -7 | 0 | 56 |
| Myanmar | 27.7 | — 0 | 55 | 0 |
| France | 22.5 | ▲ +2 | 0 | 45 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 0 locations
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 5/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.3% |
| Flow | PASSIVE GAP | BTC -3.0% / QQQ +3.2% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +3.2% vs XLP -3.5% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $84,004 · Mayer 1.18 |
| Hash Rate | DECLINING | -8.7% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 74/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 771.35 | ▲0.54% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 744.5 | ▲0.46% |
| Dow Jones | 517.49 | ▲0.94% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 393.41 | ▲0.44% |
| Crude Oil | 148.33 | ▼3.11% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.61 | ▼1.72% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 84001 | ▲0.01% |
| Ethereum | 2684 | ▼0.36% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.18% | +0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.8% | Finance ▲0.57% | Energy ▼0.89% |
| Health ▲0.49% | Consumer ▲0.22% | Industrial ▲0.95% |
| Staples ▲0.44% | Utilities ▲0.38% | Materials ▲0.24% |
| Real Est ▼0.22% | Comms ▼0.9% | Semis ▲1.01% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night, and UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m day‑transition.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station; relevance tied to Russia’s modest instability index and ongoing statements on the Ukraine war. SKYKING/EAM (US) military HF reflects US activity despite a recent drop in its instability index. Russian Navy HF (RU) may convey naval orders as Russia pledges continued war effort in Ukraine. PLA HF Network (CN) is notable given China’s rising instability score and its emphasis on hybrid warfare. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) utility traffic is of interest as European security concerns rise with reports of intensified Russian hybrid actions.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russia’s index (32) aligns with Lavrov’s declaration that the Ukraine conflict will persist (Al Jazeera) and reports of deadly air strikes (France 24). Ukraine’s higher index (63.3) reflects ongoing combat. The United States’ lower index (39.5) follows a recent decline and coincides with no specific report. China’s modest rise (33.5) matches analysis of hybrid war intensification (DW). Yemen’s drop (31.9) corresponds with Saudi coalition claims of intercepting Houthi attacks (Reuters). No supplied report directly involves Cuba, Korea, or other listed stations.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 UTC 20‑02; 4445 kHz Russian Navy HF UTC 20‑02; 8300 kHz PLA HF UTC 20‑02; 6998 kHz NATO STANAG 4285 UTC 20‑02; 8992 kHz SKYKING/EAM UTC 20‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 105 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 4 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B4.9 | WIND 458 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 30d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 15d · last update Sep 26 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Zoom — Service Degradation Affecting Customer Using Polycom Devices Going Offline minor · since Sep 25 · ongoing 26h · last update Sep 26 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M6.6 | Earthquake — 80 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.6 | Earthquake — 74 km ESE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.5 | Earthquake — 61 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — 69 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 58 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 148 km NW of Kilmia, Yemen |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 58 km NE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 74 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ONE-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (10.248 million in |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| EXTREME | Ukraine cold | -9°F | +3.7mm |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +7.9°F | -0.3mm |
| MODERATE | Mediterranean cold | -6.7°F | +2.8mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Nor'easter storm brings coastal flooding, as New York and New Jersey declare emergency
GOVERNMENT Alleged Narco-Terrorist Leader “Araña” Extradited from Colombia as Part of Homeland Security…
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Saudi coalition says it intercepts Houthi missiles, drones
CYBER & SECURITY Inside the FBI hack: Agents fearful and angry after 'dangerous' data breach
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Chinese AI models surge in global popularity — and Washington is worried
TECHNOLOGY Why US chip controls took a back seat at the Xi-Trump summit
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.