The Vigilant // SITREP Index 37 Low · De-escalating
SITREP Index 37 (Low), -2 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Friday, September 25, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Fire/Emergency Medical Services Department Operational Consideration and Guide for Active Shooter and Mass Casualty Incidents — FEMA
HIGH U.S. Troops Are Now Fighting the Drug War on the Ground in Ecuador — WSJ
HIGH Saudi Arabia crude oil exports hit highest level since Iran war began despite pipeline outage — CNBC
HIGH Alarm at UN over sanctions threatened by US on international criminal court — Guardian
HIGH Iraqi airports halt Iranian flights after new US aviation sanctions — AlJazeera
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ United States | -10 | 50 (0) |
| ▼ China | -7 | 34 (-3.5) |
| ▲ Iran | +6 | 41 (+6) |
| ▼ France | -5 | 28.5 (-5.5) |
| ▼ Israel | -4 | 31 (-6.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Ukraine | 65.8 | — 0 | 84 | 48 |
| United States | 50 | — 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Yemen | 44.9 | ▼ -4 | 52 | 38 |
| Iran | 41 | ▲ +6 | 0 | 82 |
| China | 34 | ▼ -3.5 | 0 | 68 |
| Israel | 31 | ▼ -6.5 | 0 | 62 |
| France | 28.5 | ▼ -5.5 | 0 | 57 |
| Russia | 28 | ▼ -2 | 0 | 56 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 0 locations
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 7/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.2% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +3.4% / QQQ +3.2% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +3.2% vs XLP -3.5% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $83,874 · Mayer 1.18 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +4.8% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 71/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 771.35 | ▲0.54% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 744.5 | ▲0.46% |
| Dow Jones | 517.49 | ▲0.94% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 393.41 | ▲0.44% |
| Crude Oil | 148.33 | ▼3.11% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.61 | ▼1.72% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 83868 | ▼0.5% |
| Ethereum | 2685 | ▼0.04% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.18% | +0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.8% | Finance ▲0.57% | Energy ▼0.89% |
| Health ▲0.49% | Consumer ▲0.22% | Industrial ▲0.95% |
| Staples ▲0.44% | Utilities ▲0.38% | Materials ▲0.24% |
| Real Est ▼0.22% | Comms ▼0.9% | Semis ▲1.01% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 21‑00 on 30‑20 m and night 80‑40 m; 21‑23 on 17‑15 m day band.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station, relevant given Russia’s moderate instability (index 28). Russian Navy HF (RU) provides military traffic from a nation with ongoing strategic concerns. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) offers utility traffic from a NATO member whose low index (28) contrasts with heightened Western focus on sanctions and ICC issues. Radio Free Asia (US) broadcasts from a country with mid‑range instability (US 50) and is pertinent amid U.S. involvement in Ecuador drug operations. Voice of Korea (KP) is a DPRK broadcast; North Korea’s regional posture ties to Iranian sanctions on Iraqi airports and broader Middle‑East tension.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with Ukraine’s elevated instability (65.8) and ongoing conflict. U.S. frequencies correspond to reports on U.S. troops in Ecuador and hurricane impacts on U.S. territories. Iranian‑linked sanctions on Iraqi airports are reflected in the cessation of Iranian flights, affecting regional air traffic but not directly tied to any listed station. No reporting directly mentions China, France, Israel, or Saudi Arabia, so their stations have no immediate correlation.
MONITORING PLAN 4445 kHz RU Navy 21‑00; 6998 kHz BE STANAG 4285 21‑00; 10000 kHz WWV/WWVH/BPM 21‑00 for time checks; 11735 kHz KP Voice of Korea 22‑00; 5505 kHz IE Shannon VOLMET 21‑23 for aviation updates.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 105 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 9 | K-INDEX 2 | X-RAY B4.5 | WIND 480 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 29d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 14d · last update Sep 25 |
| ⚠ NEW | Zoom — Service Degradation Affecting Customer Using Polycom Devices Going Offline minor · since Sep 25 · ongoing 3h · last update Sep 25 |
Internet Disruptions
| UNKNOWN | Unknown network A significant drop in Internet traffic from Digicel Haiti (AS27653) was observed in Haiti. The disruption may be related to BGP routing changes observed around the same time. · Digicel Haiti Sep 23 21:30Z–14:15Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — Vanuatu region |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 62 km SW of San Antonio, Chile |
| M5 | Earthquake — 124 km N of Metinaro, Timor Leste |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ONE-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (10.248 million in |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone POLO-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.703 million . |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +8.8°F | -0.3mm |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -7.7°F | +3mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Hurricane Polo barrels towards Baja California region of Mexico
GOVERNMENT Nepal PM urges climate justice after ‘Himalayan tsunami’ devastates country
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Families fleeing Yemen’s war face displacement, hunger and water shortages
CYBER & SECURITY Special agents' blood and urine test results stolen in FBI hack
AI & MACHINE LEARNING OpenAI hack on Australian government reveals anxiety at heart of global artificial intelligen…
TECHNOLOGY AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
Outside the Wire
Coverage surfaced by topic, not outlet — what the fixed source roster can’t see.
Ryuk ransomware raider sentenced to two years prison — itnews.com.au
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.