The Vigilant // SITREP Index 66 Elevated · Escalating
SITREP Index 66 (Elevated), +2 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Thursday, September 24, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Israeli PM Netanyahu calls Gaza genocide allegations ‘biggest lie of the century’ — France24
CRITICAL Netanyahu calls Israel’s war in Gaza ‘opposite of genocide’ in UN speech — Guardian
CRITICAL Netanyahu, at UN, calls accusations of genocide in Gaza ‘the biggest lie of the century’ — SCMP
CRITICAL Denmark says Russian invasion of NATO country 'highly unlikely' but cannot be ruled out — Euronews
HIGH Senate narrowly votes down resolution calling for end to Iran war — CNBC
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ Israel | +8 | 63.2 (+8.5) |
| ▲ France | +4 | 49.8 (+5) |
| ▼ India | -2 | 69.9 (-2.5) |
| ▲ Iran | +2 | 68.9 (+1) |
| ▲ Pakistan | +2 | 48.8 (+4) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 90 | ▲ +1 | 88 | 92 |
| United States | 84.8 | — 0 | 70 | 100 |
| China | 73.1 | ▼ -2 | 50 | 96 |
| India | 69.9 | ▼ -2.5 | 86 | 54 |
| Iran | 68.9 | ▲ +1 | 68 | 70 |
| Ukraine | 65.9 | ▲ +1.5 | 84 | 48 |
| Israel | 63.2 | ▲ +8.5 | 51 | 75 |
| France | 49.8 | ▲ +5 | 54 | 46 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 1 COCKED PISTOL - MAXIMUM READINESS · activity 69% · 4 spikes · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| District Pizza Palace | SPIKE 100% |
| Pizzato Pizza | SPIKE 100% |
| We, The Pizza | SPIKE 92% |
| Extreme Pizza | SPIKE 74% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | ELEVATED 50% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.6 | ↑ +282% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.2 | ↓ -8.3% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.5 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -11.5% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.2 | ↓ -13.7% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0.4 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -0.3% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +3.9% / QQQ +3.4% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +4.2% vs XLP -5.6% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $84,367 · Mayer 1.19 |
| Hash Rate | DECLINING | -5.0% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 71/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 767.27 | ▼0.07% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 741.09 | ▼0.02% |
| Dow Jones | 512.68 | ▼0.32% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 391.69 | ▼0.3% |
| Crude Oil | 153.09 | ▲2.86% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.9 | ▲0.66% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 84387 | ▼0.09% |
| Ethereum | 2695 | ▲0.72% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.96% | 0% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼0.34% | Finance ▼0.02% | Energy ▲0.37% |
| Health ▲0.63% | Consumer ▼0.3% | Industrial ▼0.75% |
| Staples ▼0.89% | Utilities ▼0.98% | Materials ▼1.19% |
| Real Est ▼0.45% | Comms ▲1.27% | Semis ▼0.15% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime usable, 80‑40 m night good, 30‑20 m day and night good, 17‑15 m day good, 17‑15 m night fair, 12‑10 m day fair, 12‑10 m night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑02 for 80‑40 m and 30‑20 m, UTC 20‑00 for 17‑15 m day band.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) – Russian domestic numbers may reflect internal messaging amid a 90 instability index and heightened rhetoric on Iran’s role in Moscow’s war (FoxNews). SKYKING/EAM (US) – US military HF traffic remains relevant as the United States sits at 84.8 instability and faces Senate debate on Iran (CNBC). PLA HF Network (CN) – Chinese military broadcasts are notable given China’s 73.1 index and its diplomatic posture on the Ukraine conflict. Radio Havana Cuba (CU) – Cuban evening broadcasts may echo regional reactions to Israel’s UN statements on Gaza (Guardian). NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) – Belgian utility frequency is pertinent as NATO members watch Russian threat assessments (Euronews).
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a 90 index and reports of Iran supporting Moscow (FoxNews). US stations correspond to an 84.8 index and US Senate action on Iran (CNBC). Chinese military HF matches a 73.1 index; no specific report ties directly. Israeli statements on Gaza genocide appear in multiple outlets but have no direct HF source today. Other stations (VOLMET, time‑signal, etc.) have no linked reporting.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz (UVB‑76) UTC 20‑02; 8992 kHz (SKYKING) UTC 20‑02; 8300 kHz (PLA HF) UTC 20‑02; 6998 kHz (NATO STANAG 4285) UTC 20‑02; 10000 kHz (WWV/WWVH/BPM/RWM) continuous as baseline.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 121 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 15 | K-INDEX 3 | X-RAY B4.5 | WIND 415 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Good | Fair |
| 12m–10m | Fair | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 28d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 13d · last update Sep 24 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Zoom — Service Degradation Affecting Live Transcription Services. minor · since Sep 24 · ongoing 4h · last update Sep 24 |
Internet Disruptions
| UNKNOWN | Unknown network A significant drop in Internet traffic from Digicel Haiti (AS27653) was observed in Haiti. The disruption may be related to BGP routing changes observed around the same time. · Digicel Haiti Sep 23 21:30Z–14:15Z |
| CABLE CUT | Guyana network A cut fibre-optic cable caused a significant drop in Internet traffic from One Communications (AS19863) in Guyana. · Guyana Telephone & Telegraph Co. Sep 23 18:45Z–06:00Z |
| NETWORK PROBLEM | Unknown network J:COM confirmed a widespread outage affecting Internet connectivity across much of Japan. · JTCL-JP-AS Sep 23 00:00Z–11:00Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 15 km SSW of Hilvan, Turkey |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 139 km SW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 32 km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ONE-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (10.248 million in |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone POLO-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 23941 . |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +7.7°F | -0.3mm |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -6.5°F | +3mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Hurricane Polo triggers huge waves in coastal Mexican city
GOVERNMENT Siemens Mendix Runtime (Update A)
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Foreign leader on Putin’s doorstep sounds alarm over Iran fueling Moscow’s war machine
CYBER & SECURITY US mortgage rates breach 7% as affordability pressures mount
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hack
TECHNOLOGY Jensen Huang talks about AI and climate change like a supervillain
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