The Vigilant // SITREP Index 58 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 58 (Elevated), -4 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 46 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL What led to the 1994 Tutsi Genocide in Rwanda — AlJazeera
HIGH At UN, Trump again threatens Iran, but suggests end of war is near — CSMonitor
HIGH Sri Lanka court convicts 15 men over deadly Easter Sunday bombings — BBC
HIGH Hurricane Polo, rapidly intensifying from strong El Niño patterns, rages off coast of Mexico — Guardian
HIGH WTO chief warns Trump tariff war risks 7% global GDP hit — Semafor
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ China | -11 | 48.1 (-10) |
| ▼ United States | -10 | 71.8 (-9.5) |
| ▼ Russia | -9 | 74.5 (-6) |
| ▼ Iran | -7 | 82.4 (-1.5) |
| ▼ United Kingdom | -7 | 44.6 (-9.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Iran | 82.4 | ▼ -1.5 | 68 | 97 |
| Russia | 74.5 | ▼ -6 | 88 | 61 |
| United States | 71.8 | ▼ -9.5 | 70 | 74 |
| Ukraine | 59.1 | ▼ -3 | 84 | 34 |
| India | 55.4 | ▼ -3.5 | 86 | 25 |
| China | 48.1 | ▼ -10 | 50 | 46 |
| Turkey | 47 | ▲ +2.5 | 60 | 34 |
| Yemen | 47 | ▼ -6.5 | 52 | 42 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.6 | → 0% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.2 | ↓ -8% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.4 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.4 | ↑ +15.5% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.3 | ↓ -14.1% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0.3 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.2% |
| Flow | PASSIVE GAP | BTC +12.8% / QQQ +6.1% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +5.8% vs XLP -5.4% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $86,197 · Mayer 1.22 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +4.1% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Extreme Greed | 78/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 773.38 | ▼0.02% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 747.46 | ▲0.81% |
| Dow Jones | 517.98 | ▼0.35% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 400.07 | ▲0.42% |
| Crude Oil | 144.08 | ▼2.75% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.48 | ▼2.72% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 86221 | ▼0.51% |
| Ethereum | 2751 | ▼0.55% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.01% | +0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.72% | Finance ▼1.99% | Energy ▼1.09% |
| Health ▲0.52% | Consumer ▲0.09% | Industrial ▲0.17% |
| Staples ▲0.99% | Utilities ▼0.32% | Materials ▲1.65% |
| Real Est ▼0.21% | Comms ▼1.06% | Semis ▲1.92% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night, and UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m day‑time propagation.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station; its continuous output is relevant given Russia’s instability index of 74.5 and recent commentary on Russian sanctions (Latvian PM, Euronews). SKYKING/EAM (US) military broadcasts merit attention as US instability sits at 71.8 and the Trump‑Iran threat report (CSMonitor) underscores heightened US‑Iran tension. PLA HF Network (CN) is notable despite China’s lower index (48.1) because the WTO tariff‑war warning (Semafor) may affect Chinese trade communications. Radio Havana Cuba (CU) evening broadcasts are of interest as Cuba’s regional role intersects with broader US‑Latin America dynamics; no specific report ties directly. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) utility traffic remains routine; no current report links to Belgium.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a high instability score and the Latvian PM’s remarks on sanctions. US stations correspond to the Trump‑Iran threat at the UN. Chinese PLA HF links indirectly to the WTO tariff‑war warning. No supplied report directly references Cuban or Belgian transmissions.
MONITORING PLAN Prioritize 4625 kHz (UVB‑76) UTC 20‑02, 8992 kHz (SKYKING) UTC 20‑02, 8300 kHz (PLA HF) UTC 20‑02, 6000 kHz (Radio Havana) UTC 21‑01, 6998 kHz (NATO STANAG 4285) UTC 20‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 104 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 3 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B5.7 | WIND 300 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 26d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 11d · last update Sep 22 |
Internet Disruptions
| TECHNICAL | Unknown network O2 Czech Republic confirmed a widespread outage affecting Internet connectivity and its customer application. · O2-CZECH-REPUBLIC Sep 21 06:30Z–08:15Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 97 km S of Sarangani, Philippines |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 88 km NNW of Uken, Japan |
| M5 | Earthquake — Volcano Islands, Japan region |
| M5 | Earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | California cold | -6.8°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Flooded streets and rescues as Typhoon Dujuan hits Japan
GOVERNMENT Siemens Industrial Edge Management
DEFENSE & CONFLICT New book by Princess Diana’s brother prompts war of words with King Charles III
CYBER & SECURITY NightmareEclipse's latest zero-day leaves Microsoft Defender stuck in the past
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Anthropic and OpenAI roll out cheaper models in first release since call for slowdown
TECHNOLOGY Andreessen Horowitz is launching an ‘academy’ with no homework and partnerships with Palantir…
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
Outside the Wire
Coverage surfaced by topic, not outlet — what the fixed source roster can’t see.
Reports in Gaza: Airstrikes in Gaza City and the Al - Mawasi Area — israelnationalnews.com
At least three killed in Pakistani airstrike on Afghanistan — jpost.com
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.