The Vigilant // SITREP Index 56 Elevated · Escalating
SITREP Index 56 (Elevated), +1 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Sunday, September 20, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH More than a dozen arrested in connection with assassination of Haitian president — Guardian
HIGH Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’ — AlJazeera
HIGH Pakistani forces kill 5 militants and free 23 hostages in operation in the southwest — AP
HIGH North Korea fires two suspected ballistic missiles off east coast within three hours — Investing
HIGH Russian exiles cast votes to voice dissent to Putin and Ukraine war — Reuters
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ France | +5 | 40.8 (+4) |
| ▲ Iran | +4 | 55.9 (+3.5) |
| ▲ China | +4 | 47.1 (+5) |
| ▲ Germany | +4 | 37.8 (+6.5) |
| ▼ Russia | -2 | 83.5 (-4) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 83.5 | ▼ -4 | 88 | 79 |
| Ukraine | 70.7 | ▲ +1 | 84 | 57 |
| United States | 63.3 | ▼ -1 | 70 | 57 |
| Iran | 55.9 | ▲ +3.5 | 68 | 44 |
| India | 51.9 | — 0 | 86 | 18 |
| Yemen | 51 | ▲ +1 | 52 | 50 |
| Israel | 50.2 | ▲ +2.5 | 51 | 49 |
| China | 47.1 | ▲ +5 | 50 | 44 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.5 | → 0% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -5.4% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.3 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -5.9% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.3 | ↓ -13.3% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0.3 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 5/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -0.7% |
| Flow | PASSIVE GAP | BTC +7.3% / QQQ +0.9% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +1.5% vs XLP -3.0% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $81,130 · Mayer 1.15 |
| Hash Rate | STABLE | +1.6% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 71/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 761.69 | ▼0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 721.45 | ▲0.63% |
| Dow Jones | 515.88 | ▼0.48% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 401.17 | ▲0.71% |
| Crude Oil | 153.82 | ▼0.96% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.09 | ▲0.65% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 81150 | ▼0.13% |
| Ethereum | 2636 | ▲0.01% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.94% | -0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.82% | Finance ▼0.04% | Energy ▼0.26% |
| Health ▼0.25% | Consumer ▼0.32% | Industrial ▲0.44% |
| Staples ▼0.83% | Utilities ▼1.42% | Materials ▼1.42% |
| Real Est ▼0.95% | Comms ▼1.37% | Semis ▲2.21% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime (UTC 20‑23) fair, night (23‑02) good; 30‑20 m daytime good, night fair; 17‑15 m daytime fair, night poor; 12‑10 m both poor. Best monitoring windows: 80‑40 m night, 30‑20 m day, 17‑15 m day.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) – Russian domestic numbers remain relevant given Russia’s high instability index (83.5) and recent exile voting protest (Reuters). SKYKING/EAM (US) – US military HF useful as United States index eases (63.3) amid regional tension highlighted by Qatar PM’s comments on US‑Israel war impact (AlJazeera). PLA HF Network (CN) – China’s rising instability (47.1 +5) and its involvement in regional missile activity warrants watch. Radio Havana (CU) – Cuba’s broadcast may echo broader Latin American unrest after Haitian president assassination arrests (Guardian). Voice of Korea (KP) – North Korea’s missile launches (Investing) make its HF output a priority.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a high instability score and the reported anti‑Putin exile vote. US stations correspond to a modestly lower index but are linked to Qatar’s remarks on US‑Israel conflict. Chinese stations reflect a rising index and regional missile concerns. Cuban output may pick up secondary coverage of Haitian political fallout. No direct reporting ties to Canadian, Irish, Japanese, or Belgian stations.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz (20‑23 UTC), 8992 kHz (20‑23 UTC), 8300 kHz (20‑23 UTC), 6000 kHz (21‑02 UTC), 11735 kHz (21‑02 UTC).
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 97 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 2 | K-INDEX 0 | X-RAY B3.5 | WIND 366 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Fair |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 24d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures from Telstra Australia to a Subset of Twilio Australia Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 9d · last update Sep 20 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M6.4 | Earthquake — 49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — 68 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 108 km ESE of Yigo Village, Guam |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 14 km WNW of Naze, Japan |
| M5 | Earthquake — 103 km W of Hihifo, Tonga |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | California cold | -8.1°F | 0mm |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -6.5°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Venezuela quakes rescue dog ‘Tsunami’ honoured with statue
GOVERNMENT Presidential Message on Yom Kippur
DEFENSE & CONFLICT UK minister warns of impact of Trump’s Iran war on next month’s budget
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Virtual cells built from 4D AI models and 'digital twins' could speed up drug discovery
TECHNOLOGY No one is surprised that Nvidia’s Jensen Huang thinks AI fears are overblown.
BUSINESS & MARKETS Waltz delivers blunt warning to nations defying Iran sanctions, touts Greenland deal
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