The Vigilant // SITREP Index 55 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 55 (Elevated), -4 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Saturday, September 19, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH Reconstructing the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 — PhysOrg
HIGH Russia Warns New U.S. Sanctions Law Would Harm Trump’s Peace Efforts — NYT
HIGH Iran says conditions to re-engage in talks, end war sent to US via Qatar — AlJazeera
HIGH Putin says Europe is 'preparing for war' — France24
HIGH Russia Enlists Yemeni Citizens for War in Ukraine, Ukraine Intel Says — KyivPost
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ China | -7 | 39.6 (-8) |
| ▼ Russia | -6 | 81 (-4.5) |
| ▼ United States | -6 | 76.8 (-7.5) |
| ▼ Ukraine | -6 | 62.3 (-6) |
| ▼ Iran | -6 | 54.4 (-9) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 81 | ▼ -4.5 | 88 | 74 |
| United States | 76.8 | ▼ -7.5 | 70 | 84 |
| Ukraine | 62.3 | ▼ -6 | 85 | 40 |
| India | 55.4 | — 0 | 86 | 25 |
| Iran | 54.4 | ▼ -9 | 68 | 41 |
| Pakistan | 50.8 | ▼ -2 | 78 | 24 |
| Yemen | 47 | ▲ +5 | 52 | 42 |
| Israel | 42.7 | ▼ -0.5 | 51 | 34 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.4 | ↑ +2067.2% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | → -4.7% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.3 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -17% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.4 | ↓ -10.1% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0.2 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 7/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -0.7% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +4.1% / QQQ +0.9% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +1.5% vs XLP -3.0% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $81,364 · Mayer 1.15 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +22.0% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 71/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 761.69 | ▼0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 721.45 | ▲0.63% |
| Dow Jones | 515.88 | ▼0.48% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 401.17 | ▲0.71% |
| Crude Oil | 153.82 | ▼0.96% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.09 | ▲0.65% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 81330 | ▲0.29% |
| Ethereum | 2634 | ▲0.09% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.94% | -0.07% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.82% | Finance ▼0.04% | Energy ▼0.26% |
| Health ▼0.25% | Consumer ▼0.32% | Industrial ▲0.44% |
| Staples ▼0.83% | Utilities ▼1.42% | Materials ▼1.42% |
| Real Est ▼0.95% | Comms ▼1.37% | Semis ▲2.21% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m daytime good, night fair; 17‑15 m daytime fair, night poor; 12‑10 m both poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night conditions; UTC 23‑02 on 80‑40 m night and 30‑20 m day.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a barometer of Russian internal messaging amid a high instability index and recent Russian statements on Europe. SKYKING/EAM (US) reflects U.S. military communications as sanctions relief to Eritrea is announced. RWM (RU) time‑signal provides a baseline for Russian HF activity while Russia enlists Yemeni citizens for the Ukraine war. Radio Havana (CU) offers Cuban perspectives on regional tensions, though no specific report ties to it today.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russia’s index of 81 and reports of sanctions law warnings, European war rhetoric, and Yemeni enlistment suggest heightened HF output from Russian stations. The United States, index 76.8, shows reduced tension after lifting Eritrean sanctions, relevant to U.S. military broadcasts. Iran’s index drop and talk‑re‑engagement report have no direct station in the list. Ukraine’s lower index aligns with no Ukrainian HF sources cited. Other nations (India, Pakistan, Yemen, Israel) have no associated stations or reporting today.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 UTC 20‑02; 8992 kHz SKYKING/EAM UTC 20‑02; 9996 kHz RWM UTC 20‑02; 6000 kHz Radio Havana UTC 20‑02; 11175 kHz HFGCS UTC 20‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 96 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 6 | K-INDEX 2 | X-RAY B4.4 | WIND 414 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Fair |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 23d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 8d · last update Sep 19 |
✓ Resolved since yesterday: npm
Internet Disruptions
| POWER | Cuba nationwide · Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba S.A Sep 18 00:00Z · ongoing |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.5 | Earthquake — Kermadec Islands region |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 210 km WNW of Abepura, Indonesia |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 67 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia |
| M5 | Earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | California cold | -8.6°F | 0mm |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -7.6°F | +1.2mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Dutch riot police break up violent far-right protest in The Hague
GOVERNMENT Department of Justice Charges 16 Individuals for Illegal Voting and Related Election Crimes
DEFENSE & CONFLICT A Small Country’s Huge Windfall from the War in Iran
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Google says Gemini AI model breached real systems in security test
TECHNOLOGY Agentic security is the billion-dollar challenge for some clever startup to solve
BUSINESS & MARKETS US lifts sanctions on Eritrea ‘to advance US regional interests’ in Red Sea
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