The Vigilant // SITREP Index 62 Elevated · Stable
SITREP Index 62 (Elevated), 0 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Friday, September 18, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Russia’s First Duma Election Since the Full-Scale Invasion: What’s the Significance? — KyivPost
HIGH Lebanese artist turns Israeli missile debris into art — AlJazeera
HIGH US removes sanctions on Eritrean Defense Forces, Treasury website shows — Reuters
HIGH Russians vote as Ukraine war drags on for fifth year — CourthouseNews
HIGH 'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran — BBCBusiness
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ United States | +11 | 84.8 (0) |
| ▲ Ukraine | +7 | 72.8 (+6.5) |
| ▼ Iran | -7 | 66.4 (-3.5) |
| ▼ China | -4 | 58.6 (-5) |
| ▼ Pakistan | -4 | 44.8 (+35.3) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 94 | — 0 | 88 | 100 |
| United States | 84.8 | — 0 | 70 | 100 |
| Ukraine | 72.8 | ▲ +6.5 | 85 | 61 |
| Iran | 66.4 | ▼ -3.5 | 68 | 65 |
| India | 61.4 | ▼ -3.5 | 86 | 37 |
| China | 58.6 | ▼ -5 | 50 | 67 |
| France | 47.3 | ▲ +2 | 54 | 41 |
| Yemen | 47 | ▼ -0.5 | 52 | 42 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 4 DOUBLE TAKE - INCREASED INTELLIGENCE WATCH · activity 19% · 1 spike · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| We, The Pizza | SPIKE 100% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET 8% |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET 7% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET 0% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.3 | ↑ +266% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -5.4% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.3 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.4 | ↓ -32.7% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.5 | ↓ -5.5% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0.1 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.1% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +5.6% / QQQ +0.9% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +1.5% vs XLP -2.9% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $81,109 · Mayer 1.15 |
| Hash Rate | DECLINING | -4.8% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 56/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 761.69 | ▼0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 721.45 | ▲0.63% |
| Dow Jones | 515.89 | ▼0.47% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 401.22 | ▲0.72% |
| Crude Oil | 153.82 | ▼0.96% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.09 | ▲0.65% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 81109 | ▲6.01% |
| Ethereum | 2633 | ▲7.59% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.01% | +0.01% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.82% | Finance ▲0% | Energy ▼0.23% |
| Health ▼0.25% | Consumer ▼0.32% | Industrial ▲0.44% |
| Staples ▼0.83% | Utilities ▼1.42% | Materials ▼1.42% |
| Real Est ▼0.95% | Comms ▼1.37% | Semis ▲2.21% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m daytime good, night fair; 17‑15 m daytime fair, night poor; 12‑10 m both poor. Best monitoring windows UTC now through 02:00: 80‑40 m night good, 30‑20 m night fair, 17‑15 m night poor; from 02:00‑04:00 sunrise improves 80‑40 m to fair and 30‑20 m to good.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a barometer of Russian state messaging amid a 94 instability index and the first Duma election reporting. SKYKING/EAM (US) provides insight into US military communications while the United States sits at 84.8 instability and faces sanctions policy shifts. RWM (RU) time‑signal continues to reflect Russian domestic broadcast activity during heightened political events. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) is relevant as Belgium’s ally status intersects with a rising French instability index (47 +2). Radio Havana (CU) offers Cuban perspectives; no direct index impact but useful for regional context.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russia’s 94 index and Duma election coverage (KyivPost) make its HF traffic a priority indicator. US activity aligns with sanctions removal on Eritrean forces (Reuters) and broader geopolitical posture. France’s modest rise appears in commentary on Iran‑related tensions (France24) but no specific French HF station is listed, so no direct correlation. Other indexed nations (Ukraine, Iran, India, China, Yemen) have no cited reports affecting the monitored roster.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 20‑02 UTC; 8992 kHz SKYKING 20‑02 UTC; 9996 kHz RWM 20‑02 UTC; 6998 kHz NATO STANAG 4285 02‑04 UTC; 11175 kHz HFGCS 02‑04 UTC.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 97 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 4 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B2.5 | WIND 404 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Fair |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 22d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures from a Subset of Network subscribers in Australia to Twilio Australia Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 7d · last update Sep 18 |
Internet Disruptions
| POWER | Cuba nationwide · Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba S.A Sep 18 00:00Z · ongoing |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 28 km NE of Villa Presidente Frei, Chile |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 189 km SSW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia |
| M5 | Earthquake — Izu Islands, Japan region |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | California cold | -7.4°F | 0mm |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -7.2°F | +3.2mm |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +5.9°F | -0.7mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -5.8°F | -0.1mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Weather tracker: Thunderstorms hit Spain as Japan braces for typhoon
GOVERNMENT CISA Adds Two Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to Catalog
DEFENSE & CONFLICT US troop deaths in Iran war exceed Pentagon count by at least four, Washington Post reports
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Researchers used Claude to hack OpenAI employees' ChatGPT accounts
TECHNOLOGY FAA tees up $875M AI tool to help manage air traffic congestion
BUSINESS & MARKETS The Final Decision on Graham’s Sanctions Bill Rests With Trump | Stefan Korshak
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