The Vigilant // SITREP Index 64 Elevated · Escalating
SITREP Index 64 (Elevated), +3 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Thursday, September 17, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Family member of lawyer who coined 'genocide' seeks to strip name from group accusing Israel of atrocity — FoxNews
HIGH Yemen War Intensifies as Houthi Militia Advances on Marib — NYT
HIGH Tusk: intelligence sees Russian plan for drone strikes on Poland, allies — Euronews
HIGH UN-backed experts cite possible US war crimes in Iran strikes — AP
HIGH The New Offensive Raising Oil Prices and Complicating Trump’s Iran War — WSJ
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ Iran | +12 | 80.9 (+13.5) |
| ▲ Russia | +5 | 85 (+7) |
| ▼ India | -5 | 67.9 (-5.5) |
| ▲ China | +5 | 64.6 (+8.5) |
| ▲ Poland | +4 | 36.5 (+5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 85 | ▲ +7 | 88 | 82 |
| Iran | 80.9 | ▲ +13.5 | 68 | 94 |
| United States | 74.3 | ▲ +2.5 | 70 | 79 |
| India | 67.9 | ▼ -5.5 | 86 | 50 |
| China | 64.6 | ▲ +8.5 | 50 | 79 |
| Israel | 59.7 | ▲ +0.5 | 51 | 68 |
| Ukraine | 58.8 | — 0 | 85 | 33 |
| Yemen | 57 | ▲ +4.5 | 52 | 62 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.1 | → -0.1% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -6.7% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.4 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -48.7% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.5 | → -0.2% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 0 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 4/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.0% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -0.9% / QQQ +1.2% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +0.1% vs XLP -3.5% 20d |
| BTC Trend | NEUTRAL | BTC $76,533 · Mayer 1.09 |
| Hash Rate | DECLINING | -12.6% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Neutral | 50/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 762.6 | ▲1.13% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 716.92 | ▲1.73% |
| Dow Jones | 518.35 | ▲0.61% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 398.36 | ▲1.69% |
| Crude Oil | 155.31 | ▼0.55% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.98 | ▼3.9% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 76581 | ▲0.57% |
| Ethereum | 2451 | ▲1.7% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5% | +0.03% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲2.25% | Finance ▼0.09% | Energy ▲0.7% |
| Health ▲0.62% | Consumer ▲1.1% | Industrial ▲0.18% |
| Staples ▲0.19% | Utilities ▲0.9% | Materials ▲0.69% |
| Real Est ▲0.3% | Comms ▼0.58% | Semis ▲2.76% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night; UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m day.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) – Russian domestic chatter may reflect heightened internal security amid a Russia index of 85 and reports of Russian drone plans against Poland. SKYKING/EAM (US) – US military HF could carry operational messages relevant to US index 74 and ongoing scrutiny of US actions in Iran. PLA HF Network (CN) – Chinese military traffic is pertinent given China’s index 64 and the report of Chinese malware targeting Latin American groups. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) – Belgian utility frequency useful for NATO coordination as European tensions rise after reports of Russian drone intent. Radio Havana Cuba (CU) – Cuban broadcasts may echo regional narratives linked to the Yemen conflict (index 57) and broader Middle‑East instability.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a high instability score and the Euronews report on Russian drone plans for Poland. US stations correspond to the United States’ moderate instability and multiple reports alleging US war‑crime claims in Iran. Chinese stations tie to China’s rising index and the Register story on Chinese malware. Iranian‑related reporting has no direct HF station in the list; likewise, Ukrainian, Israeli, Indian, and Yemeni indices lack specific monitored frequencies.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 UTC 20‑23; 8992 kHz SKYKING/EAM UTC 21‑00; 8300 kHz PLA HF UTC 22‑02; 6998 kHz NATO STANAG 4285 UTC 20‑02; 6000 kHz Radio Havana Cuba UTC 23‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 100 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 7 | K-INDEX 2 | X-RAY B2.4 | WIND 467 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 21d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ NEW | OpenAI — Partial System Outage major |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 4 · ongoing 13d · last update Sep 17 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M6.5 | Earthquake — 165 km W of Nikolski, Alaska [TSUNAMI] |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 191 km SE of Mata-Utu, Wallis and Futuna |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 155 km SSE of Hihifo, Tonga |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 132 km E of Bitung, Indonesia |
| M5 | Earthquake — South Atlantic Ocean |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Ukraine cold | -6.7°F | +2.9mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -6.3°F | -0.1mm |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +6.1°F | -0.7mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS China's Salt Typhoon backdoors Latin American orgs with new snooping malware
GOVERNMENT US likely committed war crimes against Iranian civilians: Independent experts
DEFENSE & CONFLICT The Iran war is driving clean energy development. It’s not enough to help the planet, yet
CYBER & SECURITY Cisco drops another exploited zero-day, this time a perfect 10
AI & MACHINE LEARNING OpenAI introduces new AI model for law firms
TECHNOLOGY Japan, US discussing chip factory construction as part of $550 billion investment talks, Nikk…
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