The Vigilant // SITREP Index 62 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 62 (Elevated), -1 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Monica Bellucci in a Chilling French Home-Invasion Thriller — France24
HIGH Saudis seek allies’ help as missile defences run low in fight with Houthis — SCMP
HIGH Ukraine Plans War-Risk Insurance Fund, Considers 1% VAT Increase to Cover Business Losses — KyivPost
HIGH Belarus Frees 25 Political Prisoners in Exchange for U.S. Sanctions Relief — NYT
HIGH A Hague court convicts Kosovo’s former President Thaci of war crimes and sentences him to 25 years — AP
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ Israel | +4 | 53.7 (+3.5) |
| ▼ Turkey | -4 | 36 (-6.5) |
| ▼ Iran | -3 | 73.9 (-3) |
| ▼ Russia | -2 | 77 (-5.5) |
| ▼ China | -2 | 48.1 (-4) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| United States | 84.8 | — 0 | 70 | 100 |
| Russia | 77 | ▼ -5.5 | 88 | 66 |
| Iran | 73.9 | ▼ -3 | 68 | 80 |
| Yemen | 63 | ▲ +0.5 | 52 | 74 |
| India | 57.9 | — 0 | 86 | 30 |
| Ukraine | 57.4 | ▼ -2 | 85 | 30 |
| Israel | 53.7 | ▲ +3.5 | 51 | 56 |
| United Kingdom | 51.1 | ▼ -1.5 | 48 | 54 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0 | ↓ -91.9% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -8.5% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.4 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -60% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.6 | ↑ +5.4% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | -0.1 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 5/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.0% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -1.4% / QQQ -1.6% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ -1.8% vs XLP -2.6% 20d |
| BTC Trend | NEUTRAL | BTC $76,097 · Mayer 1.08 |
| Hash Rate | STABLE | -0.4% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Neutral | 51/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 754.05 | ▼0.44% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 704.72 | ▲0.03% |
| Dow Jones | 515.22 | ▼1.15% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 391.74 | ▼0.61% |
| Crude Oil | 156.17 | ▼3.52% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.67 | ▲0.8% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 76015 | ▼0.19% |
| Ethereum | 2407 | ▼0.34% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.97% | +0.01% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.1% | Finance ▼1.62% | Energy ▼2.88% |
| Health ▲0.07% | Consumer ▼0.63% | Industrial ▼0.12% |
| Staples ▼0.48% | Utilities ▲0% | Materials ▼0.73% |
| Real Est ▼0.6% | Comms ▼0.9% | Semis ▲0.64% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night, and UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m day and 80‑40 m night.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station, relevant given Russia’s high instability index. SKYKING/EAM (US) monitors U.S. military traffic amid a stable but elevated U.S. index and recent DHS alien‑terrorist removal report. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) provides allied utility traffic; Belgium’s index is moderate and the report on Belarus prisoner exchange hints at broader NATO‑Russia dynamics. RWM (RU) time‑signal continues to reflect Russian communications infrastructure under current pressure.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION United States stations are noted while the U.S. index stays high and DHS announced a landmark alien‑terrorist removal. Russian stations align with Russia’s still‑elevated index despite a recent decline and the Belarus prisoner‑exchange story linking Moscow’s sphere. No reporting directly involves China, Canada, Ireland, Japan, or Cuba, so their stations have no immediate geopolitical tie today.
MONITORING PLAN 4445 kHz RU Navy staff UTC 20‑02; 6998 kHz BE NATO UTC 20‑02; 10000 kHz US time‑signal (WWV/WWVH) UTC 20‑02; 9996 kHz RU RWM UTC 20‑02; 8992 kHz US SKYKING UTC 20‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 107 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 4 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B2.6 | WIND 510 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 20d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | DigitalOcean — Support Portal Service Disruption minor · since Sep 16 · ongoing 10h · last update Sep 16 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures from Telstra Australia to a Subset of Twilio Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 4 · ongoing 12d · last update Sep 16 |
✓ Resolved since yesterday: Stripe
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 77 km SSW of San Jose Village, Northern Mariana Islands |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 172 km ESE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands |
| M5 | Earthquake — 5 km NE of Mitsukaidō, Japan |
| M5 | Earthquake — 281 km SSE of Dunhuang, China |
| M5 | Earthquake — 60 km SSW of Ocós, Guatemala |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS We may soon be able to read long-lost ancient scrolls damaged by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius
GOVERNMENT DHS Announces Removal of Alien Terrorist in First Use of United States Alien Terrorist Remova…
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Consumers hit by one-two punch of oil and rates from Iran war. The estimated bill is $1,700 p…
CYBER & SECURITY Spain gets its first taste of AI-aided cyber attack
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Pacing the frontier is more about business models than AI models
TECHNOLOGY A brief history of AI executives calling for regulation
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