The Vigilant // SITREP Index 63 Elevated · Stable
SITREP Index 63 (Elevated), 0 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Tuesday, September 15, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 55 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH Iran war has cost on average $246 million per day in its first five months, CBO finds — CNBC
HIGH Trump’s Iran war has cost US $38bn and caused munitions ‘shortfall’ — FT
HIGH Iran war cost hits $38 billion, forecast to rise $3 billion a month, CBO says — Reuters
HIGH Man admits to bombing California courthouse in retaliation for seized guns — Guardian
HIGH Iran war has led to US munitions shortfalls, Pentagon inspector confirms — BBC
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ United States | -7 | 78.8 (-6) |
| ▼ Russia | -5 | 91 (-3) |
| ▼ Ukraine | -5 | 73 (-4) |
| ▲ Iran | +5 | 71.4 (+2.5) |
| ▲ Yemen | +2 | 54 (+1) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 91 | ▼ -3 | 88 | 94 |
| United States | 78.8 | ▼ -6 | 70 | 88 |
| Ukraine | 73 | ▼ -4 | 85 | 61 |
| Iran | 71.4 | ▲ +2.5 | 68 | 75 |
| China | 60.1 | ▲ +3.5 | 50 | 70 |
| India | 59.9 | ▲ +2 | 86 | 34 |
| Yemen | 54 | ▲ +1 | 52 | 56 |
| United Kingdom | 51.6 | ▼ -1.5 | 48 | 55 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 3 ROUND HOUSE - INCREASE FORCE READINESS · activity 33% · 2 spikes · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Papa Johns Pizza | SPIKE 100% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | SPIKE 83% |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET 8% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET 5% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET 0% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0 | ↓ -110.7% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -11.2% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.5 | ↓ -7955.4% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.3 | ↓ -67.9% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.6 | ↑ +11% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | -0.1 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 5/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.5% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -0.6% / QQQ -1.9% 5d |
| Regime | DEFENSIVE | QQQ -3.5% vs XLP -1.1% 20d |
| BTC Trend | NEUTRAL | BTC $76,141 · Mayer 1.08 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +4.3% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 69/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 757.44 | ▼0.45% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 704.54 | ▼0.65% |
| Dow Jones | 521.3 | ▼0.61% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 394.15 | ▲0.33% |
| Crude Oil | 161.86 | ▲3.32% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.53 | ▲0.23% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 76093 | ▼3.65% |
| Ethereum | 2414 | ▼5% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.96% | +0.01% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼0.29% | Finance ▼0.32% | Energy ▲2.17% |
| Health ▼0.05% | Consumer ▼1.75% | Industrial ▼0.64% |
| Staples ▼0.82% | Utilities ▼1.2% | Materials ▲0.48% |
| Real Est ▼0.12% | Comms ▼0.9% | Semis ▲0.11% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night, and UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m day and 80‑40 m night.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian domestic numeric beacon; its continuity is relevant given Russia’s high instability index of 91. SKYKING/EAM (US) military HF provides insight into US operational tempo as the United States sits at a 78.8 index and faces reported munitions shortfalls from the Iran conflict. Radio Havana (CU) evening broadcasts merit attention because Cuba’s proximity to the United States aligns with heightened US‑Cuba strategic monitoring amid the same conflict. PLA HF Network (CN) is notable as China’s instability index has risen to 60.1 and recent reporting links Chinese economic concerns to the Iran war’s cost growth. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) utility traffic is useful for NATO coordination given the United Kingdom’s index of 51.6 and its role in allied assessments.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russia’s high index and ongoing internal pressures are reflected in its extensive numeric beacons. United States reporting cites a $38 billion cost and munitions shortfall from the Iran war (Financial Times, BBC). China’s rising index coincides with analysis of the Iran war’s expanding financial burden (Reuters). No supplied reports directly involve Cuba, Belgium, or Canada.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UVB‑76 UTC 20‑23; 8992 kHz SKYKING/EAM UTC 20‑23; 6000 kHz Radio Havana UTC 23‑02; 8300 kHz PLA HF Network UTC 23‑02; 6998 kHz NATO STANAG 4285 UTC 20‑02.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 104 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 3 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B2.8 | WIND 483 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 19d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures from Telstra Australia to a Subset of Twilio Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 4 · ongoing 11d · last update Sep 15 |
Internet Disruptions
| CYBERATTACK | Portugal network Traffic disruptions observed on MEO (AS3243) in Portugal · MEO-RESIDENCIAL, MEO-MOVEL Sep 14 16:30Z–17:15Z |
| CYBERATTACK | Portugal network Traffic disruptions observed on MEO (AS3243) in Portugal · MEO-RESIDENCIAL, MEO-MOVEL Sep 13 23:45Z–01:30Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — off the coast of Michoacan, Mexico |
| M5 | Earthquake — 69 km NW of Lae, Papua New Guinea |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -5.4°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS This Atlantic hurricane season is about to do something that hasn't happened in 175 years
GOVERNMENT World fears major war more than any other global risk, UN survey finds
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Carney visits Europe: Can Canada seek refuge with the EU amid US trade war?
CYBER & SECURITY Swiss court sentences 52-year-old Ukrainian ransomware dev to nearly 13 years in the cooler
AI & MACHINE LEARNING OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in talks to create a standards body as AI fears rise
TECHNOLOGY Open weights are not open source: Why AI's favorite label is under dispute
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The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.