The Vigilant // SITREP Index 52 Guarded · De-escalating
SITREP Index 52 (Guarded), -2 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Sunday, September 13, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL Opinion | The ICJ’s Pernicious Plan to Redefine Genocide — WSJ
HIGH Ukraine's Zelenskiy imposes sanctions on former press secretary — Reuters
HIGH Bessent is doubling down with weekly bank sanctions — YahooFinance
HIGH Ukraine, Poland condemn Russia after drone strikes train near border — France24
HIGH New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war’s spread worsens oil disruption — Investing
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▲ Russia | +5 | 79.5 (+4) |
| ▲ Ukraine | +4 | 71.6 (+5) |
| ▼ France | -4 | 38.8 (-2) |
| ▼ Saudi Arabia | -4 | 13 (-8) |
| ▼ United States | -3 | 52.3 (-4.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 79.5 | ▲ +4 | 88 | 71 |
| Ukraine | 71.6 | ▲ +5 | 85 | 58 |
| India | 57.4 | ▼ -2.5 | 86 | 29 |
| Iran | 56.4 | ▼ -2.5 | 68 | 45 |
| United States | 52.3 | ▼ -4.5 | 70 | 35 |
| China | 48.6 | ▲ +3.5 | 50 | 47 |
| Yemen | 47.6 | ▲ +3 | 52 | 43 |
| France | 38.8 | ▼ -2 | 54 | 24 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0 | ↓ -109.7% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↓ -15.2% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.5 | ↓ -302.7% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.4 | ↓ -69.3% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.7 | ↑ +23.1% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | -0.1 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | SQUEEZE | JPY 30d ROC -2.6% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -1.5% / QQQ -0.4% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ -2.4% vs XLP -3.0% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $77,271 · Mayer 1.1 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +6.5% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 61/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 764.29 | ▲0.85% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 714.88 | ▲0.87% |
| Dow Jones | 525.79 | ▲0.97% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 398.77 | ▲0.61% |
| Crude Oil | 154.9 | ▼2.2% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17.3 | ▼4.74% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 77257 | ▲0.18% |
| Ethereum | 2505 | ▼0.54% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.95% | +0.12% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲1.32% | Finance ▲0.67% | Energy ▲0.32% |
| Health ▼0.18% | Consumer ▲0.89% | Industrial ▲1.07% |
| Staples ▲0.35% | Utilities ▼0.31% | Materials ▲0.37% |
| Real Est ▲0.86% | Comms ▲0.99% | Semis ▲1.47% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m both day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m day and night poor. Best windows UTC 20‑23 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night, and UTC 23‑02 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m day.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) – Russian domestic numbers remain relevant as Russia’s instability index rises sharply; Russian Navy HF (RU) – military traffic may reflect heightened activity linked to recent drone strike reports on the Russia‑Ukraine border; PLA HF Network (CN) – China’s index is climbing and ties to broader regional tension; NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) – Belgium’s lower instability makes it a baseline utility channel; Voice of Korea (KP) – DPRK broadcast may echo regional oil‑security concerns noted in Middle‑East reporting.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a high instability score (79.5) and recent reports of Ukrainian‑Polish condemnation of Russian drone strikes. Chinese PLA HF matches China’s modest rise (48.6) and broader oil‑security narratives, though no direct report cites China. US time‑signals and VOLMET remain neutral; no reporting directly involves them. Belgian STANAG utility likewise has no specific report linkage.
MONITORING PLAN Priorities – 4445 kHz (RU Navy) UTC 20‑02; 8300 kHz (CN PLA) UTC 20‑02; 6998 kHz (BE NATO) UTC 21‑02; 4625 kHz (RU Buzzer) UTC 20‑23 for intermittent voice.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 109 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 4 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY C1.2 | WIND 433 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 17d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Anthropic — Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows major · since Sep 10 · ongoing 3d · last update Sep 11 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers. minor · since Sep 4 · ongoing 9d · last update Sep 13 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 43 km ESE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 101 km S of Yudomari, Japan |
| M5 | Earthquake — southeast of the Loyalty Islands |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Tracing the Path of Nepal’s Flood
GOVERNMENT Guterres: Old global order must change as power shifts to emerging economies
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Up 3,600%, this freight fund has posted the biggest gains of all on Iran war oil shock
CYBER & SECURITY Crossbench MPs launch push to stop Australian military exports being used in human rights bre…
AI & MACHINE LEARNING OpenAI’s rogue AI tried to hack another company in May
TECHNOLOGY Trump and Mike Johnson think the AI industry is overreacting
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
Outside the Wire
Coverage surfaced by topic, not outlet — what the fixed source roster can’t see.
Australia vows to bolster resilience of telco networks after outage at Singtel - owned Optus — businesstimes.com.sg
Several Countries, Regional Organizations Condemn Attacks on Saudi Arabia East - West Oil Pipeline — aawsat.com
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.