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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Risk off, oil plunges
Conflict fears grip markets
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Despejado Madrid 5° · Despejado Barcelona 10° · Despejado Valencia 9° · Despejado Sevilla 11° · Nublado Bilbao 12°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,556 |
-0.4% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,762 |
-0.8% |
| Bitcoin |
$71,198 |
+0.9% |
| Brent |
$100.06 |
-4.2% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,910
+0.1% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.48 |
-1.5% |
| BBVA |
€18.29 |
-0.8% |
| Inditex |
€49.82 |
-0.6% |
| Telefónica |
€3.68 |
+3.4% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.30 |
+1.2% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD strong, risk appetite low.
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Jun 30, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
Putin exit unlikely by June 30?
Why it matters
Geopolitics heat up
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Likely
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic to drop?
Why it matters
Oil price impact
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin $200k by Dec 31 ruled out
Why it matters
Crypto volatility
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 1, 2026
Ethereum reach $3,800 in March
Ethereum $3,800 in March unlikely
Why it matters
Sports betting
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Very unlikely
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch
USD.AI FDV above $300M unlikely
Why it matters
New projects
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outAlphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31· vol 999k | | Ruled outNorway win Eurovision 2026· vol 994k | | Ruled outLatvia win Eurovision 2026· vol 988k |
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Picked for you · Brent $100/bbl
Brent crude is above $100. Energy costs can ripple through portfolios — diversification matters.
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Signal of the day
Market says low probability of Putin exit, but wires hint at increased pressure on Russia. Contrasting views on Iran-US conflict.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices drop. Global markets react to conflict fears. Watching Iran-US relations closely.
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❺ On the wire
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BBC News
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Stay vigilant
Will conflict escalate?
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