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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Iran talks spark hope, markets cautious
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Despejado Madrid 7° · Parcial Barcelona 12° · Poco nuboso Valencia 11° · Despejado Sevilla 13° · Nublado Bilbao 11°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$71,162 |
+0.4% |
| Brent |
$97.24 |
+1.4% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD firm, risk appetite mixed
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin to $200k by Dec 31?
Why it matters
Iran's future at stake
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Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela become 51st state
Venezuela to become 51st state?
Why it matters
US statehood on horizon?
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Iran regime to fall by April 30?
Why it matters
Regime change looming?
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Ruled out
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March
80 ships to transit Hormuz in March?
Why it matters
Shipping lane tensions
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Watch · Al Jazeera English
Iran only lets ‘friendly’ ships through Strait of Hormuz, others targeted: Journalist
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Ruled out
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Chris Murphy to win 2028 Dem nomination?
Why it matters
2028 election stakes
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Watch · MSNBC
‘Disaster of epic proportions’: Sen. Chris Murphy on impact of Trump’s war with Iran
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9942k | | Ruled outthe Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9866k | | Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
S&P 500 is up 1.15% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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Signal of the day
Market vs wires tension on Iran regime change. EU calls for negotiations, but will it work?
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❹ World in 30 seconds
EU calls for Iran talks. US-Iran tensions simmer. What's next for Hormuz shipping?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Stay vigilant
Will Iran talks ease tensions?
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