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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Iran regime stability in focus
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Despejado Madrid 7° · Parcial Barcelona 12° · Poco nuboso Valencia 11° · Despejado Sevilla 13° · Nublado Bilbao 11°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$71,259 |
+0.5% |
| Brent |
$97.62 |
+1.8% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD strong, risk appetite cautious
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March
Iran regime fall: low odds
Why it matters
Iran's future at stake
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Watch · Al Jazeera English
Iran only lets ‘friendly’ ships through Strait of Hormuz, others targeted: Journalist
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance uncertain
Why it matters
Mojtaba's visibility matters
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Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela become 51st state
Venezuela 51st state: ruled out
Why it matters
Venezuela's US ties
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30
Claude 5 release: unlikely by March 31
Why it matters
AI model release
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Ruled out
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Elon Musk tweet frenzy: unlikely
Why it matters
Elon's tweet impact
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Watch · MSNBC
‘Disaster of epic proportions’: Sen. Chris Murphy on impact of Trump’s war with Iran
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9942k | | Ruled outthe Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9866k | | Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
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Signal of the day
Market vs wires: Iran regime stability diverges
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❹ World in 30 seconds
EU calls for Iran talks. Wires highlight Israel's concerns. What's next for Iran?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Market eyes on Iran
Will Iran talks succeed?
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