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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Iran Regime Stability In Question
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Despejado Madrid 6° · Parcial Barcelona 12° · Poco nuboso Valencia 10° · Despejado Sevilla 12° · Parcial Bilbao 10°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,878 |
-0.0% |
| Brent |
$102.18 |
+2.2% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD strong, risk appetite muted.
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin to $200k by Dec 31: unlikely
Why it matters
Iran's future at stake
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Iran regime to fall by April 30: no
Why it matters
US election speculation
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Watch · CNN
Iranian regime issues chilling threats to its citizens
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Ruled out
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Chris Murphy to win 2028 Dem nomination: ruled out
Why it matters
Strait of Hormuz traffic
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Watch · MSNBC
‘Disaster of epic proportions’: Sen. Chris Murphy on impact of Trump’s war with Iran
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Ruled out
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March
80 ships to transit Strait of Hormuz: unlikely
Why it matters
Crypto valuation
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Watch · Al Jazeera English
Iran only lets ‘friendly’ ships through Strait of Hormuz, others targeted: Journalist
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Unlikely
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch
USD.AI FDV to hit $300M: possible
Why it matters
Iranian politics
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9866k | | Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k | | Ruled outthe Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup· vol 998k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
S&P 500 is up 1.15% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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Signal of the day
Market says Iran regime stable, but US-Iran negotiations suggest otherwise.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Brent crude rises, Iran regime stability in question. US-Iran negotiations spark uncertainty. What's next for Middle East tensions?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Will Iran regime survive?
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