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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Iran tensions escalate, markets react
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Despejado Madrid 5° · Parcial Barcelona 11° · Poco nuboso Valencia 9° · Despejado Sevilla 12° · Poco nuboso Bilbao 9°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,518 |
-0.5% |
| Brent |
$102.91 |
+3.0% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Risk appetite wanes as Iran tensions rise, USD steady.
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Iran regime fall by April 30: 10% chance
Why it matters
Regime change
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin to $200k by Dec 31: unlikely
Why it matters
Crypto volatility
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Ruled out
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Chris Murphy wins 2028 Dem nom: 1% chance
Why it matters
US election
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Watch · MSNBC
‘Disaster of epic proportions’: Sen. Chris Murphy on impact of Trump’s war with Iran
Verified news channel · opens in YouTube
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Unlikely
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch
USD.AI FDV to hit $300M: 31% chance
Why it matters
AI valuation
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Ruled out
Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026
Claude 5 release by March 31: ruled out
Why it matters
AI model release
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k | | Ruled outthe Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup· vol 998k | | Ruled outArmenia win Eurovision 2026· vol 998k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
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Signal of the day
Market odds contradict wire reports on Iran regime's stability. Geopolitical risks are rising.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Iran tensions rise as US-Israel attacks continue. Markets react with cautious sentiment. What's next for Iran?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Stay alert
Will Iran tensions escalate further?
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