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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Oil prices surge amid US-Israel war
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Despejado Madrid 5° · Nublado Barcelona 10° · Despejado Valencia 9° · Poco nuboso Sevilla 12° · Parcial Bilbao 9°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,349 |
-0.8% |
| Brent |
$102.90 |
+3.0% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD strong, risk appetite low.
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Iran regime falls by April 30?
Why it matters
Regime change impact
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin to $200k by Dec 31?
Why it matters
Crypto market volatility
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Ruled out
Resolves Nov 7, 2028
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Chris Murphy wins 2028 Dem nod?
Why it matters
US election odds
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Ruled out
Resolves Jul 1, 2026
the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals
Phoenix Suns win 2026 NBA Finals?
Why it matters
NBA championship
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Ruled out
Resolves Jul 1, 2026
the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals
Miami Heat win 2026 NBA Finals?
Why it matters
NBA championship
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k | | Ruled outthe Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup· vol 998k | | Ruled outArmenia win Eurovision 2026· vol 994k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
S&P 500 is up 1.15% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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Signal of the day
Market disagrees with wires on Patrick Cantlay's Masters chances. Tiger Woods' return adds uncertainty.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Oil prices rise amid US-Israel war on Iran. Brent up 3%. What's next for oil prices?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Trade safe
Will oil prices continue to rise?
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