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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent down, risk assets up
Trump delays Iran strikes, markets react
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Nublado Madrid 17° · Poco nuboso Barcelona 14° · Nublado Valencia 15° · Nublado Sevilla 24° · Poco nuboso Bilbao 16°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,588 |
+1.3% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,936 |
+1.3% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,239 |
+3.5% |
| Brent |
$100.64 |
-10.3% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€17,055
+2.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.70 |
+5.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.56 |
+3.5% |
| Inditex |
€50.70 |
+0.3% |
| Telefónica |
€3.58 |
+0.0% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.27 |
+0.5% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD weak, risk appetite high.
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❷ The markets say
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Unlikely
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April
Strait of Hormuz normal by April: 37%?
Why it matters
Oil price impact
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Ruled out
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
Trump out as President by March 31
Trump out by March 31: ruled out
Why it matters
Trump's next move
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Ruled out
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March
Oil at $65 by March: unlikely
Why it matters
Crypto volatility
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 1, 2026
Ethereum reach $2,400 in March
Ethereum at $2,400 in March: 26%
Why it matters
NBA playoffs
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Ruled out
Resolves Jul 1, 2026
the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals
Suns win NBA Finals: 1%
Why it matters
Heat's chances
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outAustria win Eurovision 2026· vol 996k | | Ruled outClaude 5 be released by March 31, 2026· vol 986k | | Ruled outthe Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup· vol 986k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.26%
S&P 500 is up 1.26% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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Signal of the day
Trump's moves contradict market expectations, sparking uncertainty.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Trump delays Iran strikes, Brent oil prices drop. US deploys ICE agents to airports amid staffing issues. What's next for US-Iran relations?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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BBC News
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Markets await
Will Trump's actions stabilize oil prices?
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