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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent up, risk assets wobbly
Iran regime falls by April 30?
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Despejado Madrid 5° · Nublado Barcelona 10° · Despejado Valencia 9° · Poco nuboso Sevilla 12° · Parcial Bilbao 9°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,581 |
+1.1% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,947 |
+1.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,435 |
-0.7% |
| Brent |
$102.63 |
+2.7% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,888
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.62 |
+4.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.44 |
+2.9% |
| Inditex |
€50.10 |
-0.9% |
| Telefónica |
€3.55 |
-0.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.08 |
-0.5% |
Macro read
Risk appetite up, but for how long? USD steady.
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❷ The markets say
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Ruled out
Resolves Apr 30, 2026
the Iranian regime fall by April 30
Iran regime falls by April 30: 10% chance
Why it matters
Geopolitics heats up
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Almost certain
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Elon Musk be richest person on December 31
Musk richest by Dec 31: 89% likely
Why it matters
Musk's wealth at stake
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Ruled out
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin at $200k by Dec 31: ruled out
Why it matters
Bitcoin's big bet
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Likely
Resolves Mar 24, 2026
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24
Bitcoin up today: 60% chance
Why it matters
USD.AI's debut
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Unlikely
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch
USD.AI FDV $300M+ by launch: unlikely
Why it matters
2028 election watch
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What didn’t move much
| Ruled outthe Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9865k | | Ruled outthe Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals· vol 9828k | | Ruled outthe Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup· vol 998k |
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Picked for you · S&P 500 +1.15%
S&P 500 is up 1.15% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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Signal of the day
Market data contradicts some wire headlines. Fact-check verdict: warn.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
US-Israel attacks Iran. Markets watch regime's resilience. What's next for Bitcoin?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Al Jazeera
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Trade wisely
Will Iran's regime fall?
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