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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Good morning — risk assets decline
Global markets slide, Brent dips below $101
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Despejado Madrid 8° · Chubascos Barcelona 12° · Despejado Valencia 10° · Parcial Sevilla 16° · Nublado Bilbao 10°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,477 |
-1.7% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,408 |
-2.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$68,758 |
-3.6% |
| Brent |
$100.94 |
-0.9% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,963
-1.2% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.47 |
-2.4% |
| BBVA |
€18.30 |
-2.1% |
| Inditex |
€50.48 |
+0.2% |
| Telefónica |
€3.66 |
-1.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.21 |
-1.0% |
Macro read
Risk appetite wanes, USD steady, as cash markets price in uncertainty — liquidity tightens.
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❷ The markets say
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Likely
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026
S&P 500 down 1.7%
Why it matters
WHY IT MATTERS: shutdown affects national security
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 4, 2026
Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Nasdaq falls 2.4%, Bitcoin down 3.6%
Why it matters
NCAA tournament heats up
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Ruled out
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series
Brent crude dips 0.9% to $100.94
Why it matters
Red Sox struggle in preseason
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Picked for you · S&P 500 -1.74%
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Signal of the day
Market volatility contrasts with wires' focus on geopolitics — a delicate balance, as investors coöperate with uncertain outcomes, and the reëlection of key officials may influence the trajectory of these events.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Risk assets decline — Brent dips below $101, and the USD remains steady. Geopolitics — from the Strait of Hormuz to Iraq — weigh on investor sentiment. Next, watch the DHS shutdown's end date, as March 31 approaches — and its impact on national security, immigration, and transportation.
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Markets await clarity
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31?
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