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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Good morning — risk assets wobbly
DHS shutdown end uncertain, markets watch
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Despejado Madrid 7° · Parcial Barcelona 11° · Nublado Valencia 10° · Parcial Sevilla 15° · Nublado Bilbao 10°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,477 |
-1.7% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,408 |
-2.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$68,787 |
-3.5% |
| Brent |
$100.93 |
-0.9% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,963
-1.2% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.47 |
-2.4% |
| BBVA |
€18.30 |
-2.1% |
| Inditex |
€50.48 |
+0.2% |
| Telefónica |
€3.66 |
-1.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.21 |
-1.0% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD firm, risk appetite low
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❷ The markets say
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Contested
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026
S&P 500 down 1.7%
Why it matters
DHS shutdown impact
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 4, 2026
Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Nasdaq falls 2.4%
Why it matters
Arizona's NCAA hopes
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Ruled out
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series
Bitcoin loses 3.5%
Why it matters
Red Sox World Series chances
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Picked for you · S&P 500 -1.74%
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Signal of the day
The DHS shutdown's end date remains uncertain, with negotiations ongoing — a repricing reminiscent of Keynes' beauty contest, where the market's focus is on what others will do, rather than fundamentals alone.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Madrid's clear skies contrast with market gloom — as the DHS shutdown continues, risk assets stumble. The EU's top diplomat urges US pressure on Russia, while Manila's streets empty amid fuel price surges. Watch for the US Federal Reserve's next move — as the market coöperate with policymakers to reëlect growth.
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Markets await clarity
Will the DHS shutdown end soon?
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