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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Risk assets stumble
Brent, S&P 500 slide on shutdown fears
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Despejado Madrid 7° · Parcial Barcelona 11° · Parcial Valencia 10° · Poco nuboso Sevilla 15° · Nublado Bilbao 10°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,477 |
-1.7% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,408 |
-2.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$68,708 |
-3.6% |
| Brent |
$100.54 |
-1.3% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,963
-1.2% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.47 |
-2.4% |
| BBVA |
€18.30 |
-2.1% |
| Inditex |
€50.48 |
+0.2% |
| Telefónica |
€3.66 |
-1.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.21 |
-1.0% |
Macro read
Rates steady, USD firm, risk appetite wanes — cash markets cautious.
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❷ The markets say
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ContestedMoved -5pp
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026
S&P 500 down 1.7%, Nasdaq falls 2.4%.
Why it matters
Shutdown impact on national security
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 4, 2026
Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Brent slips 1.3%, below $101.
Why it matters
NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
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Ruled out
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series
IBEX 35 loses 1.2%, led by Santander's 2.4% drop.
Why it matters
Red Sox' roster overhaul
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Picked for you · S&P 500 -1.74%
S&P 500 is down 1.74%. Volatile tapes reward a plan, not panic.
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Signal of the day
Market sentiment trumps fundamentals — a beauty contest, indeed. Wires highlight geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Brent and S&P 500 slide on shutdown fears — a tense geopolitical backdrop. Costa Rica to accept deportees under Trump plan, while EU urges US to pressure Russia. What's next for risk assets?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Caution prevails
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31?
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