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PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
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Brent dips, markets wobble
DHS shutdown deadline looms large
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Despejado Madrid 7° · Parcial Barcelona 11° · Nublado Valencia 10° · Parcial Sevilla 15° · Nublado Bilbao 10°
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Global tape · US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,477 |
-1.7% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,408 |
-2.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$68,746 |
-3.6% |
| Brent |
$100.68 |
-1.2% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,963
-1.2% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.47 |
-2.4% |
| BBVA |
€18.30 |
-2.1% |
| Inditex |
€50.48 |
+0.2% |
| Telefónica |
€3.66 |
-1.7% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.21 |
-1.0% |
Macro read
Risk appetite falters, USD steady, as cash markets weigh geopolitics — and prediction markets price in uncertainty, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Nasdaq falling 2.4%.
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❷ The markets say
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Contested
Resolves Mar 31, 2026
the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026
S&P 500: $6,477, down 1.7%, as investors eye DHS shutdown
Why it matters
WHY IT MATTERS: Budget impasse affects national security
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Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 4, 2026
Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Nasdaq: $21,408, off 2.4%, on tech sector concerns
Why it matters
Tournament brackets at stake
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Ruled out
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series
Bitcoin: $68,746, down 3.6%, as crypto volatility persists
Why it matters
Baseball season kicks off
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Picked for you · S&P 500 -1.74%
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Signal of the day
Market uncertainty reflects the tension between US politics and global events — a delicate balance, as the EU's top diplomat navigates complex relationships, and the Olympic committee's decision sparks debate.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
The DHS shutdown deadline looms — as lawmakers negotiate, the S&P 500 dips 1.7%, and the Nasdaq falls 2.4%. The EU's top diplomat urges the US to pressure Russia to stop aiding Iran — a delicate balance. What's next for the global economy, as the US and EU navigate complex geopolitics — and the Olympic committee bans trans athletes, raising questions?
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❺ On the wire
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Market jitters
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31?
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