I'm extremely worried that superintelligent AI will kill everyone
I’d guess maybe a 50% chance that we’re all dead within 5–20 years because somebody will build superintelligent AI, and then the superintelligent AI will...
I was wrong: concentrated factor portfolios don't have alpha
http://mdickens.me/2026/04/20/I_was_wrong_concentrated_factor_portfolios_don't_have_alpha/ Previously, I wrote about how investors can simulate leverage via...
I was wrong: concentrated factor portfolios don't have alpha
Previously, I wrote about how investors can simulate leverage via concentrated stock selection. That’s still true as far as I can tell. However, I also wrote...
Can AI make advancements in moral philosophy by writing proofs?
http://mdickens.me/2026/04/13/can_AI_write_moral_philosophy_proofs/ If civilization advances its technological capabilities without advancing its wisdom, we...
Can AI make advancements in moral philosophy by writing proofs?
If civilization advances its technological capabilities without advancing its wisdom, we may miss out on most of the potential of the long-term future....
Pausing AI Is the Best Answer to Post-Alignment Problems
http://mdickens.me/2026/04/11/pause_for_post-alignment_problems/ Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face post-alignment problems, which are...
Pausing AI Is the Best Answer to Post-Alignment Problems
Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face post-alignment problems, which are all the other existential problems1 that AI may bring. People...
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy
http://mdickens.me/2026/04/06/by_strong_default_ASI_will_end_liberal_democracy/ The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on...
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy
The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on government power, and enfranchised citizens—relies on a balance of power where individual...
The Future Will Be Weirder Than That
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/29/future_will_be_weirder_than_that/ Many people in the animal welfare community treat AI as a powerful but normal technology, in...
Which is better for sentient beings: an "ethical" AI or a corrigible AI?
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/28/which_is_better_for_animals_value_lock-in_or_corrigibility/ Cross-posted to the EA Forum. An aligned ASI can be “ethical”1 (it...
The Future Will Be Weirder Than That
Many people in the animal welfare community treat AI as a powerful but normal technology, in the same category as the steam engine or the internet. They talk...
An argument for why aligned ASI wouldn't be bad for animals
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/27/resource_constraints_argument_why_aligned_AI_wouldn't_be_bad_for_animals/ In the far future, why would people use up precious...
Which is better for sentient beings: an "ethical" AI or a corrigible AI?
Cross-posted to the EA Forum. An aligned ASI can be “ethical”1 (it does what we think is right), or it can be corrigible (it does what its principals want)....
List of ideas for improving animal welfare in light of transformative AI
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/26/quick_ideas_animal_welfare_in_light_of_ASI/ If transformative AI arrives soon, what interventions might improve animal welfare...
The resource-constraints argument for why aligned ASI wouldn't be bad for animals
Cross-posted to the EA Forum. In the far future, why would people use up precious resources recreating wild-animal suffering, when they could do so many...
I used to think aligned ASI would be good for all sentient beings; now I don't know what to think
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/25/I_used_to_think_aligned_ASI_would_be_good_for_sentient_beings/ Epistemic status: Speculating with no central thesis. This post...
List of ideas for improving animal welfare in light of transformative AI
Cross-posted to the EA Forum. If transformative AI arrives soon, what interventions might improve animal welfare in the post-TAI world? I came up with a...
I used to think aligned ASI would be good for all sentient beings; now I don't know what to think
Cross-posted to the EA Forum. Epistemic status: Speculating with no central thesis. This post is less of an argument and more of a meditation. A decade ago,...
Cost-effectiveness model for AI alignment-to-animals vs. alignment-in-general
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/24/alignment-to-animals_BOTEC/ Last September, I wrote: There’s a (say) 80% chance that an aligned(-to-humans) AI will be good for...