Epistemic Spot Check: Expected Value of Donating to Alex Bores's Congressional Campaign
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/13/spot_check_alex_bores/ Political advocacy is an important lever for reducing existential risk. One way to make political change...
Upside Volatility Is Bad
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/09/upside_volatility_is_bad/ Investors often say that standard deviation is a bad way to measure investment risk because it...
Writing Your Representatives: A Worthwhile and Neglected Intervention
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/08/call_or_write_your_representatives/ Is it a good use of time to call or write your representatives to advocate for issues you...
Things I Learned from College
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/07/things_I_learned_from_college/ (that I still remember a decade later) Evolution on Earth Fact 1: When foxes are bred to be more...
How Can I Not Know Whether I'm Having a Good Experience?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/05/how_can_I_not_know_whether_I'm_having_a_good_experience/ I’m playing Elden Ring. I’m fighting a difficult boss1, and I’m...
Do Small Protests Work?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/04/do_small_protests_work/ TLDR: The available evidence is weak. It looks like small protests may be effective at garnering...
My Third Caffeine Self-Experiment
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/03/third_caffeine_self-experiment/ Last year I did a caffeine cycling self-experiment and I determined that I don’t get habituated...
Things I've Become More Confident About
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/02/things_ive_become_more_confident_about/ Last year, I wrote a list of things I’ve changed my mind on. But good truth-seeking...
Will Welfareans Get to Experience the Future?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/01/will_welfareans_get_to_experience_the_future/ Epistemic status: This entire essay rests on two controversial premises (linear...
The Next-Gen LLM Might Pose an Existential Threat
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/15/next_gen_LLM_might_pose_existential_threat/ I’m pretty sure that the next generation of LLMs will be safe. But the risk is...
Mechanisms Rule Hypotheses Out, But Not In
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/08/mechanisms_rule_hypotheses_out_not_in/ If there is no plausible mechanism by which a scientific hypothesis could be true, then...
How Much Does It Cost to Offset an LLM Subscription?
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/04/cost_to_offset_LLM_subscription/ Is moral offsetting a good idea? Is it ethical to spend money on something harmful, and then...
I Made an Emacs Extension That Displays Magic: the Gathering Card Tooltips
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/03/mtg_emacs/ This post is about the niche intersection of Emacs and Magic: the Gathering. I considered not writing this because I...
AI Safety Landscape & Strategic Gaps
https://mdickens.me/2025/09/19/ai_safety_landscape/ I wrote an article giving a high-level review of what work people are doing in AI safety. My report...
Healthy Cooking Tips from a Lazy Person
http://mdickens.me/2025/08/29/lazy_cooking_tips/ source The problem with most “lazy cooking” advice is that it’s not lazy enough. Today I bring you some...
Doctor Strange Didn't See Only One Victory Out of 14,000,605 Futures
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/25/doctor_strange/ Or, more accurately, the fact that he said the Avengers only won once can’t be taken as evidence about what he...
Is It So Much to Ask for a Nice Reliable Aggregated X-Risk Forecast?
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/12/aggregated_x-risk_forecasts/ On most questions about the future, I don’t hold a strong view. I read the aggregate prediction of...
Annual Subscription Discounts Usually Aren't Worth It
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/07/annual_subscription_discounts/ It’s common for monthly subscription services to offer a discount if you pay annually instead....
LLMs might already be conscious
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/05/LLMs_might_already_be_conscious/ Among people who have thought about LLM consciousness, a common belief is something like LLMs...
In Which I Defend Fruit's Honor
http://mdickens.me/2025/06/08/defending_fruit's_honor/ Confidence: Likely. I am here to clear fruit’s name against the accusations that have been made. Fruit...