AI will make biological extinction risks worse before it makes them better
http://mdickens.me/2026/06/29/AI_will_make_biorisk_worse_before_making_it_better/ An argument goes: If we don’t build aligned artificial superintelligence,...
AI will make biological extinction risks worse before it makes them better
An argument goes: If we don’t build aligned artificial superintelligence, we risk driving ourselves extinct for some other reason. We should rush to build...
Compare Your Company Stock to a Leveraged Index Fund
Say you work at a private company that gives you stock options or RSUs. How should you value your stock? If you have a choice between getting more stock or...
A frontier AI company should shut down
http://mdickens.me/2026/06/15/a_frontier_AI_company_should_shut_down/ Prior discussion: niplav’s shortform (2025); Planning for Extreme AI Risks (2025) by...
A frontier AI company should shut down
Prior discussion: niplav’s shortform (2025); Planning for Extreme AI Risks (2025) by Joshua Clymer A frontier AI company (any one, I don’t care which) should...
Science-driven stories are good for the same reason that character-driven stories are good
http://mdickens.me/2026/06/13/science-driven_stories/ (Spoilers in this post are hidden with spoiler tags.) What made Project Hail Mary so good? Among other...
Science-driven stories are good for the same reason that character-driven stories are good
(Spoilers in this post are hidden with spoiler tags.) What made Project Hail Mary so good? Among other reasons, it’s because the science drove the story,...
How valuable are weak AI safety regulations?
http://mdickens.me/2026/06/08/how_valuable_are_weak_AI_safety_regulations/ Image credit: Jebulon To prevent superintelligent AI from killing everyone, I...
How valuable are weak AI safety regulations?
Image credit: Jebulon To prevent superintelligent AI from killing everyone, I would like there to be a strong international agreement banning the development...
We Need Breadth-First AI Safety Plans
http://mdickens.me/2026/06/01/breadth-first_AI_safety_plans/ Depth-first plans lay out a path from here to aligned superintelligent AI. We need those kinds...
We Need Breadth-First AI Safety Plans
Depth-first plans lay out a path from here to aligned superintelligent AI. We need those kinds of plans. But depth-first plans depend on many assumptions:...
Sentient Welfare Across Three Futures
http://mdickens.me/2026/05/25/three_futures_sentient_welfare/ Three categories of futures, depending on how AI goes: ASI timelines are long. ASI timelines...
Sentient Welfare Across Three Futures
Three categories of futures, depending on how AI goes: ASI timelines are long. ASI timelines are short, and we’re on track to solving AI alignment. ASI...
I sleep less when I exercise more
http://mdickens.me/2026/05/18/I_sleep_less_when_I_exercise_more/ They say exercise improves sleep quality. Is that true for me? To test this hypothesis, I...
I sleep less when I exercise more
They say exercise improves sleep quality. Is that true for me? To test this hypothesis, I took my daily calorie expenditures from the Apple Health app and...
Donation Timing Under Uncertainty About AI Timelines
http://mdickens.me/2026/05/11/donation_timing_given_AI_timelines/ A few years back, I got a big pile of money from working at a tech startup. I put a lot of...
Donation Timing Under Uncertainty About AI Timelines
A few years back, I got a big pile of money from working at a tech startup. I put a lot of that money into a donor-advised fund. Since now I make hardly any...
Thoughts on investing for transformative AI
http://mdickens.me/2026/05/04/investing_for_transformative_ai/ TLDR: I basically don’t. more Contents Contents Ethical concerns Thoughts on how to avoid...
Thoughts on investing for transformative AI
TLDR: I basically don’t. Contents Contents Ethical concerns Thoughts on how to avoid becoming corrupted Future worlds What happens in the lead-up to ASI?...
I'm extremely worried that superintelligent AI will kill everyone
http://mdickens.me/2026/04/27/worried_about_ASI/ I’d guess maybe a 50% chance that we’re all dead within 5–20 years because somebody will build...