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July 6, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — July 06, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
⚠ Transition risk: 13% — Rising Growth / Low Inflation leading 2d
This Week in Macro
Inflation in the Eurozone's biggest economies cooled more than expected, signaling potential relief for consumers and easing pressure on the European Central Bank. This could reinforce the current macro regime by suggesting that rising inflation isn't as persistent as feared (The Wall Street Journal).
Oil prices rose amid renewed fears of supply disruptions following U.S.-Iran strikes, but the market largely shrugged off the escalation. This mixed response highlights the ongoing volatility in oil markets and the challenges of rising inflation in the current regime (CNBC).
Oil rises as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes reignite Middle East supply fears →
Japan's $74 billion effort to prop up the yen indicates the country's struggle against the Fed's tightening policy. As central banks globally navigate rising inflation, this could signal increased volatility in currency markets, complicating the current macro regime (CNBC).
Japan spent $74 billion propping up the yen. Investors say the real battle is with the Fed →
China's factory activity grew faster than expected, driven by demand for tech exports. This growth could provide a boost to global supply chains and support the current regime of rising growth (CNBC).
China factory activity grows faster than expected in June on tech export demand →
Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low amid fears of further rate hikes, reflecting how tightening monetary policy can impact risk assets. This aligns with the current macro regime's challenges as investors recalibrate their expectations (Bloomberg).
In the U.S., Treasury yields edged higher as investors await Fed Chair Warsh's comments, suggesting a cautious approach to upcoming monetary policy shifts. This reflects the delicate balance central banks must maintain in the current rising growth/rising inflation environment (CNBC).
U.S. Treasury yields edge higher as investors await Fed Chair Warsh’s talks in Europe →
The World Cup boom in the U.S. faltered as hospitality jobs fell in June, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market. This could challenge the resilience of the current macro regime, especially if consumer spending takes a hit (BBC News).
World Cup boom falters as US hospitality jobs fall in June →

Bottom line: The macro landscape remains complex, with signs of cooling inflation and growth in some areas, but geopolitical tensions and labor market weaknesses could complicate the path forward.

Ted's Take

This week’s news tells a nuanced story that keeps me on my toes. While cooling inflation in the Eurozone hints at a less persistent inflation problem, the geopolitical tensions and the faltering U.S. labor market create a complex backdrop that complicates our current regime of rising growth and rising inflation. I’m particularly eyeing the currency markets and oil price volatility as potential harbingers of a shift; if we see sustained weakness in labor statistics or a deeper dive in risk assets like Bitcoin, it could force a reevaluation of positioning. For now, I’m sticking to my strategy — smaller drawdowns are my ticket to compounding success, and patience is key as we navigate this uncertain landscape.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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