Bottom line: As geopolitical tensions rise and the Fed grapples with interest rate decisions, markets are navigating a complex landscape that could challenge the current regime of Rising Growth / Rising Inflation. Stay alert; the waters are choppy!

This week's news underscores a critical juncture in our macro landscape, particularly with geopolitical tensions and mixed economic indicators suggesting that the current regime of Rising Growth / Rising Inflation might be losing its grip. The Fed's indecision on interest rates adds to the volatility we’re witnessing in both equity and bond markets. As we navigate these choppy waters, I'm keeping a close eye on oil prices and any shifts in consumer sentiment—if inflationary pressures continue to mount alongside geopolitical instability, we could see a more pronounced shift toward Stagflation. I'm not ready to make drastic moves just yet, but if we start seeing consistent signals of declining growth or rising inflation, I’ll be reevaluating my positioning to protect against potential downturns.