Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 06 - 10 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 08 - 14 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 29 total (1, 2, 4, 4, 5, 7, 6)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 38 total (7, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $3.03 (+0.5%, 0.2σ)

↳ Henry Hub rose modestly as market participants awaited storage data release, with conflicting signals between price forecasts expecting weakness and ongoing Canadian tightness concerns.

Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.344 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.099 (H 2.763 / J 2.664)

Storage 3415 Bcf (+64 w/w, +27 vs 5-yr, -136 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

PJM West DA $114.59 (prev $68.31) - heat rate 37.9 (prev 22.7) - spark $91.89 (prev $45.72)

ERCOT North DA $30.99 (prev $31.14) - heat rate 10.2 (prev 10.3) - spark $8.30 (prev $8.55)

CAISO SP15 DA $33.54 (prev $34.81) - heat rate 11.1 (prev 11.6) - spark $10.85 (prev $12.23)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €72.36/MWh (~$23.84/MMBtu) +3.7%

JKM $25.74/MMBtu +1.2%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.71/MMBtu; TTF−HH $20.82

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $90.42 (+1.2%, 0.4σ)

Brent $103.53 (+0.9%, 0.3σ)

Energy equities

CEG $254.02 (-4.0%, 1.5σ)

↳ Constellation Energy declined 4% despite headlines about rising stock and a major 20-year power deal, suggesting the PJM contract delay cited in coverage may have disappointed relative to initial expectations.

VST $138.35 (-1.8%, 0.8σ)

↳ Vistra fell 1.8% despite analyst reiteration of outperform ratings and bullish 115% upside targets, with the decline potentially reflecting broader sector rotation or profit-taking after recent analyst commentary.

WMB $67.97 (-1.0%, 0.8σ)

↳ Williams Companies declined slightly following Barclays' reinstatement of overweight coverage with an $82 target, suggesting the market may have already priced in the positive rating shift.

LNG $269.03 (+0.7%, 0.4σ)

↳ Cheniere Energy edged higher on a day marked by routine corporate announcements including leadership changes and earnings timing, with no clear headline explaining the modest 0.7% gain.

NVDA $228.38 (+0.5%, 0.3σ)

↳ Nvidia rose 0.5% alongside reports of record $279B AI infrastructure commitments and Korean investor participation in major cloud funding rounds, reflecting sustained momentum in enterprise AI spending.

Quiet: KMI -1.0% · NRG -1.6% · DVN -1.2% · EQT -0.7% · TLN -0.7% · AR -0.5% · RRC +0.4%