Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 07 - 11 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 09 - 15 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 33 total (3, 4, 4, 5, 7, 6, 4)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 34 total (7, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.97 (-1.9%, 0.6σ)

↳ Henry Hub fell 1.9% as natural gas continues to consolidate near the 50-day EMA with support being tested, though headlines do not specify a new fundamental driver for the intraday decline.

Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.338 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.088 (H 2.719 / J 2.631)

Storage 3415 Bcf (+64 w/w, +27 vs 5-yr, -136 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)

Power

ERCOT North DA $44.82 (prev $30.99) - heat rate 15.1 (prev 10.2) - spark $22.57 (prev $8.30)

PJM West DA $153.48 (prev $114.59) - heat rate 51.7 (prev 37.9) - spark $131.23 (prev $91.89)

CAISO SP15 DA $41.22 (prev $33.54) - heat rate 13.9 (prev 11.1) - spark $18.96 (prev $10.85)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €73.94/MWh (~$24.39/MMBtu) +2.2%

JKM $25.78/MMBtu +0.2%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.82/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.42

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $92.87 (+2.7%, 1.0σ)

Brent $102.31 (-1.2%, 0.5σ)

Energy equities

WMB $69.22 (+1.8%, 1.6σ)

↳ WMB rose 1.8% following a Barclays upgrade to Strong-Buy and commentary on pipeline growth and Haynesville contracted power offsetting broader energy market volatility.

KMI $30.53 (+1.3%, 1.2σ)

↳ KMI gained 1.3% on announcements of pipeline expansion plans including the Southeast Connector and 150-mile Sumner County projects that support shareholder value.

DVN $47.16 (+2.4%, 1.1σ)

↳ DVN advanced 2.4% after JPMorgan raised its price target to $65 from $60 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock.

LNG $272.40 (+1.3%, 0.8σ)

↳ LNG rose 1.3% despite headlines of a derivative hit and Cheniere operational challenges, suggesting the 1.3% move may reflect broader sentiment not fully explained by available headlines.

NVDA $230.86 (+1.1%, 0.6σ)

↳ NVDA gained 1.1% as the stock hit a record high with analysts calling valuations cheap, though the move is unrelated to energy markets and included as non-energy context only.

Quiet: EQT +3.2% · TLN +3.3% · AR +1.9% · RRC +1.5% · CEG +1.9% · NRG +1.3% · VST +1.0%

Friday recall

Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.

1. Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
2. What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
3. Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
4. What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?