TTF=F +1.1% (0.3σ) | HH $3.04 | 8 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 11 - 15 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 13 - 19 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 28 total (4, 6, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 29 total (5, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 3)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $3.04 (+2.3%, 0.7σ)
↳ Henry Hub front month rose 2.3% as natural gas continues testing the $3.05 resistance level amid reports of sustained bullish momentum in price forecasts.
Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.306 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.084 (H 2.689 / J 2.605)
Storage 3415 Bcf (+64 w/w, +27 vs 5-yr, -136 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Power
ERCOT North DA $34.43 (prev $44.82) - heat rate 11.3 (prev 15.1) - spark $11.67 (prev $22.57)
PJM West DA $86.25 (prev $153.48) - heat rate 28.4 (prev 51.7) - spark $63.48 (prev $131.23)
CAISO SP15 DA $46.06 (prev $41.22) - heat rate 15.2 (prev 13.9) - spark $23.30 (prev $18.96)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €74.76/MWh (~$24.60/MMBtu) +1.1% (+1.1%, 0.3σ)
JKM $25.70/MMBtu -0.3%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.67/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.56
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $91.11 (-1.9%, 0.7σ)
Brent $102.25 (-0.1%, 0.0σ)
Energy equities
VST $140.02 (+0.2%, 0.1σ)
Vistra secured a $4.2 billion federal loan to expand nuclear capacity, with Meta reportedly already committed to buying that power through long-term contracts. The loan, backed by the Department of Energy, funds new nuclear units at existing sites and represents federal support for data center power demands. The transmission to price works through improved project economics and reduced capital risk. The federal backing lowers Vistra's financing costs and de-risks the nuclear expansion, making contracted power sales to hyperscalers like Meta more profitable. This visibility into cash flows and reduced balance sheet strain supports the stock multiple. Watch whether Meta and other hyperscalers actually execute their offtake agreements at disclosed contract prices. If power purchase agreement pricing proves insufficient to cover operational costs or capital requirements, it could force renegotiations and compress returns.
- Trump Looks Set to Give Vistra Stock a $4 Billion Boost - Barchart.com
- Why is Vistra (NYSE:VST) stock in focus as a federal loan backs nuclear? - Kalkine Media
- Stock Traders Buy High Volume of Call Options on Vistra (NYSE:VST) - MarketBeat
KMI $31.07 (+1.8%, 1.6σ)
↳ Kinder Morgan gained 1.8% as expanding natural gas demand supports the infrastructure operator, with reports of potential expansion of the TGP 219 South Pipeline.
NVDA $233.95 (+1.3%, 0.9σ)
↳ Nvidia rose 1.3% with multiple reports indicating the chip designer faces limited exposure to the US data center power crunch affecting the broader AI supply chain.
RRC $38.23 (+1.7%, 0.8σ)
↳ Range Resources gained 1.7% as analysts at Truist and BMO reiterated positive outlooks, with BMO expecting strong third-quarter performance from the natural gas producer.
LNG $269.95 (-0.9%, 0.5σ)
↳ Cheniere Energy declined 0.9% despite securing a 22-year LNG supply agreement with Petrobras, suggesting other market factors outweighed the contract announcement.
Quiet: WMB +1.9% · NRG -1.8% · DVN +1.0% · TLN -0.7% · CEG -0.6% · EQT +0.2% · AR +0.1%