Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 05 - 09 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 07 - 13 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 25 total (1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 6, 7)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 41 total (6, 8, 8, 6, 5, 4, 4)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $3.01 (+0.4%, 0.1σ)

↳ Henry Hub's modest 0.4% gain lacks clear directional driver from the headlines, which discuss both rising industrial gas prices and Canadian LNG demand additions without indicating a specific catalyst for today's move.

Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.327 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.095 (H 2.720 / J 2.625)

Storage 3351 Bcf (+53 w/w, +51 vs 5-yr, -148 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

ERCOT North DA $31.14 (prev $47.62) - heat rate 10.3 (prev 15.9) - spark $8.55 (prev $25.12)

PJM West DA $68.31 (prev $56.54) - heat rate 22.7 (prev 18.8) - spark $45.72 (prev $34.04)

CAISO SP15 DA $34.81 (prev $37.81) - heat rate 11.6 (prev 12.6) - spark $12.23 (prev $15.31)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €69.81/MWh (~$23.20/MMBtu) -4.9%

JKM $25.43/MMBtu -2.5%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.42/MMBtu; TTF−HH $20.18

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $89.38 (-3.5%, 1.2σ)

Brent $102.59 (-2.6%, 1.0σ)

Energy equities

TLN $314.84 (+3.7%, 1.4σ)

↳ Talen Energy rose 3.7% following announcement of a new CEO appointment and a $3 billion capacity monetization plus accelerated share repurchase program.

VST $140.83 (+2.0%, 1.0σ)

↳ Vistra gained 2.0% amid discussion of AI demand supporting nuclear power plant valuations, though Scotiabank's downward price target revision to $207 from $298 tempers the move.

CEG $264.58 (+1.6%, 0.6σ)

↳ Constellation Energy's 1.6% gain occurred despite TD Cowen highlighting acute uncertainty from FERC delays on PJM's AI demand plan and broader concerns about stock overhang weighing on the sector.

KMI $30.45 (-0.6%, 0.5σ)

↳ Kinder Morgan declined 0.6% despite multiple headlines confirming $6–7 billion growth runway and accelerating Southeast pipeline expansion driven by data center gas demand.

LNG $267.29 (-0.9%, 0.5σ)

↳ Cheniere Energy fell 0.9% despite signing a 22-year LNG supply contract with Petrobras; the decline may reflect a fatal incident at a Cheniere facility under investigation.

Quiet: RRC -2.6% · EQT -2.0% · AR -2.2% · NVDA -0.7% · WMB -0.5% · DVN -0.3% · NRG +0.2%