HH $3.00 -6.1% (2.2σ) | 8 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 04 - 08 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 06 - 12 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 18 total (2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 39 total (4, 6, 7, 7, 6, 5, 4)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $3.00 (-6.1%, 2.2σ)
Henry Hub front-month contracts dropped 6.1% to $3.00 as mild weather forecasts and ample supply conditions weighed on near-term demand expectations. The decline represents a 2.2 standard deviation move, indicating statistical significance. ICE's expansion of LNG derivative offerings—launching new JKM options, LNG balmo freight futures, and U.K. electricity options—reflects growing institutional interest in hedging strategies across global gas markets, though this product expansion itself doesn't directly pressure U.S. hub prices. The transmission mechanism flows through supply-demand fundamentals: softer heating demand from seasonal temperatures reduces immediate consumption needs, while robust production levels keep inventory builds robust. Watch whether tomorrow's EIA storage report shows injection rates that validate current bearish sentiment or surprise higher, potentially triggering a retest of nearby support levels. The $3.00 level itself warrants monitoring as a technical floor given the move's magnitude.
- ICE Launches New JKM LNG (Platts) Options, LNG Balmo Freight Futures and U.K. Electricity Options in an Expansion of Global Natural Gas and Power Markets - Business Wire
- Natural gas price holds on to the bullish bias – Forecast today – 29-9-2026 - Economies.com
Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.346 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.110 (H 2.804 / J 2.694)
Storage 3351 Bcf (+53 w/w, +51 vs 5-yr, -148 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Power
PJM West DA $56.54 (prev $35.17) - heat rate 18.8 (prev 11.0) - spark $34.04 (prev $11.20)
ERCOT North DA $47.62 (prev $37.25) - heat rate 15.9 (prev 11.7) - spark $25.12 (prev $13.28)
CAISO SP15 DA $37.81 (prev $39.89) - heat rate 12.6 (prev 12.5) - spark $15.31 (prev $15.92)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €73.44/MWh (~$24.41/MMBtu) +1.9% (+1.9%, 0.5σ)
JKM $26.08/MMBtu +1.0%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $23.08/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.41
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $92.60 (+0.2%, 0.1σ)
Brent $105.28 (+0.9%, 0.3σ)
Energy equities
Meta capex signal (capex)
↳ Meta's substantial capex guidance is driving headlines in the tech sector, likely influencing data center and infrastructure-related energy demand expectations.
NVDA $228.86 (+1.7%, 0.8σ)
↳ NVIDIA gained on news of expanded AI infrastructure deployments at Global Switch Paris and Compal partnerships, plus confidence signaled by a record $150 billion buyback announcement.
LNG $269.65 (+0.4%, 0.2σ)
↳ LNG rose modestly as Petrobras signed a 22-year supply agreement with Cheniere, establishing long-term U.S. export commitments to Brazil.
TLN $303.50 (-0.3%, 0.1σ)
↳ Talen Energy declined slightly with no clear catalyst in the headlines provided, though stock technicals and operational mix were discussed by analysts.
Quiet: NRG -3.4% · EQT -1.9% · RRC -1.9% · AR -1.9% · CEG -1.1% · KMI -0.4% · WMB -0.4% · DVN -0.7% · VST -0.3%