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September 22, 2026

META +11.4% (6.0σ) | HH $2.84 | 10 others

ENERGY BRIEF · Tue Sep 22, 2026 · session Sep 21
THE NUMBER
$2.84
Henry Hub front month
-2.6%, 1.6σ

Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Sep 27 - Oct 01, 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Sep 29 - Oct 05, 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 26 total (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 35 total (6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.84 (-2.6%, 1.6σ)

Front/second (V26/X26): -0.157 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.102 (H 2.782 / J 2.680)

Storage 3298 Bcf (+44 w/w, +79 vs 5-yr, -125 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

ERCOT North DA $53.57 (prev $45.36) - heat rate 18.9 (prev 15.6) - spark $32.30 (prev $23.52)

PJM West DA $63.98 (prev $78.22) - heat rate 22.6 (prev 26.9) - spark $42.71 (prev $56.38)

CAISO SP15 DA $39.19 (prev $38.68) - heat rate 13.8 (prev 13.3) - spark $17.92 (prev $16.84)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €73.25/MWh (~$24.55/MMBtu) -7.9% (-7.9%, 2.5σ)

JKM $25.99/MMBtu -5.5%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $23.15/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.72

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $95.78 (-4.5%, 1.6σ)

Brent $100.34 (-3.4%, 1.3σ)

Energy equities

TIER 2

Meta capex signal (capex)

Meta's substantial capital expenditure plans are driving supplier focus, with reports highlighting 16 key suppliers benefiting from the company's massive capex allocation.

  • Meta Muse Goes Viral: Who's Taking Home Meta's Massive CapEx? A Deep Dive into 16 Key Suppliers - Moomoo
  • Capex to Consume Nearly All Hyperscaler Operating Cash Flow in 2026 - Broadband Breakfast
TIER 2

LNG $274.98 (+2.5%, 1.4σ)

Cheniere Energy swung to a quarterly loss as derivative contracts on LNG positions moved sharply against the company amid Iran tensions, according to EnergyNow. Despite underlying gas strength, the company's hedging losses offset operational gains. The derivative losses created a mechanical disconnect: while physical LNG markets tightened and spot prices supported fundamentals, financial hedges on those positions moved unfavorably, dragging reported earnings down. This transmission from geopolitical risk into accounting losses reflects how LNG exporters' financial results can diverge from commodity price moves. The derivative position creates leverage to price direction—gains when prices fall (long hedges), losses when prices spike. Watch whether Cheniere adjusts hedge ratios or discloses changes to its derivative book in the next earnings call, as this signals management's appetite for Iran-conflict exposure.

  • Cheniere Energy seen as stable infrastructure p... - Pluang
  • Cheniere Energy: Gas Surged, The Stock Fell, And The Thesis Held (NYSE:LNG) - Seeking Alpha
  • Cheniere Energy Partners prioritizes stable cas... - Pluang

Microsoft capex signal (capex)

↳ Hyperscaler capex demands are expected to consume nearly all operating cash flow in 2026, positioning Microsoft as a significant participant in this infrastructure investment cycle.

Amazon capex signal (capex)

↳ Amazon faces the same industry-wide capex pressure as hyperscalers, with capital expenditures projected to consume nearly all operating cash flow in 2026.

NVDA $227.38 (+2.3%, 0.8σ)

↳ Nvidia gained 2.3% as reports of strengthened AI data center partnerships and Apple's shift toward lower-cost AI alternatives offset broader data center deployment hesitation concerns.

Quiet: AR -2.6% · CEG +2.9% · DVN -2.1% · TLN +2.6% · RRC -1.6% · WMB -0.6% · KMI -0.4% · EQT +0.3% · NRG -0.4% · VST +0.2%

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← Newer HH $2.96 +4.5% (2.7σ) | 3 others Older → MSFT -0.8% (0.6σ) | HH $2.91 | 18 others
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