HH $2.96 +4.5% (2.7σ) | 3 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Sep 28 - Oct 02, 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Sep 30 - Oct 06, 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 25 total (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 32 total (5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.96 (+4.5%, 2.7σ)
Henry Hub front-month surged 4.5% to $2.96 on geopolitical supply tightening. Lithuania secured its first decade-long US LNG contract, signaling sustained European demand as the Ukraine conflict continues restricting Russian gas flows into global markets. This locks in buyer commitments that support longer-term price floors. The transmission to spot pricing works through forward curve steepening—when buyers commit to decade-long volumes, it signals confidence in sustained high prices, reducing near-term oversupply concerns. Simultaneously, Europe's structural supply deficit keeps LNG export demand elevated, tightening domestic US balances. Watch whether front-month holds above the 200-day moving average at $3.00. A sustained break above that level would suggest the market is pricing in persistent global supply constraints rather than treating this as a temporary spike.
- Lithuania secures a decade of US gas supplies for first time - Delfi
- Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Eyes 200-Day EMA After Gap Above $3 - FXEmpire
- These US Natural Gas Hubs Stand Out for Volatility — or Lack Thereof - Natural Gas Intelligence
Front/second (V26/X26): -0.152 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.113 (H 2.817 / J 2.704)
Storage 3298 Bcf (+44 w/w, +79 vs 5-yr, -125 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Power
ERCOT North DA $51.11 (prev $53.57) - heat rate 17.2 (prev 18.9) - spark $28.87 (prev $32.30)
PJM West DA $52.43 (prev $63.98) - heat rate 17.7 (prev 22.6) - spark $30.19 (prev $42.71)
CAISO SP15 DA $31.30 (prev $39.19) - heat rate 10.6 (prev 13.8) - spark $9.06 (prev $17.92)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €73.34/MWh (~$24.48/MMBtu) +0.1% (+0.1%, 0.0σ)
JKM $26.05/MMBtu +0.2%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $23.08/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.52
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $94.59 (-1.2%, 0.4σ)
Brent $99.25 (-1.1%, 0.4σ)