MSFT -0.8% (0.6σ) | HH $2.91 | 18 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Sep 26 - 30 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Sep 28 - Oct 04, 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 28 total (3, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 36 total (7, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.91 (+0.4%, 0.2σ)
↳ Henry Hub front month gained 0.4% as shoulder season demand pressures compete with typical seasonal decline, though Florida pipeline constraints and strong power demand provide some upside support.
Front/second (V26/X26): -0.131 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.102 (H 2.812 / J 2.710)
Storage 3298 Bcf (+44 w/w, +79 vs 5-yr, -125 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Power
ERCOT North DA $42.41 (prev $43.55) - heat rate 14.6 (prev 15.0) - spark $20.57 (prev $21.79)
PJM West DA $133.04 (prev $155.23) - heat rate 45.7 (prev 53.5) - spark $111.20 (prev $133.48)
CAISO SP15 DA $34.02 (prev $36.18) - heat rate 11.7 (prev 12.5) - spark $12.18 (prev $14.42)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €79.52/MWh (~$26.72/MMBtu) +4.1% (+4.1%, 1.4σ)
JKM $27.51/MMBtu +2.8%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $24.60/MMBtu; TTF−HH $23.81
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $100.30 (-1.6%, 0.6σ)
Brent $103.87 (-0.9%, 0.4σ)
Energy equities
Microsoft capex signal (capex)
Microsoft capex signal reflects headline stating hyperscalers' capital expenditure will consume nearly all operating cash flow in 2026.
- Capex to Consume Nearly All Hyperscaler Operating Cash Flow in 2026 - Broadband Breakfast
EQT $50.00 (-0.7%, 0.5σ)
EQT signed a long-term LNG supply agreement with Ignitis, Lithuania's energy company, locking in future export volumes. This deal validates EQT's strategy to monetize Appalachian gas through LNG infrastructure rather than domestic-only markets. The transmission mechanism cuts two ways. The contract provides revenue certainty and justifies capital investment in liquefaction capacity, supporting EQT's valuation. However, the second headline signals structural headwinds: US gas production vastly exceeds domestic consumption, with limited pipeline takeaway capacity to coastal export terminals. This supply glut keeps Henry Hub prices depressed relative to export markets, squeezing realizable margins even with overseas contracts locked in. Watch whether additional long-term LNG offtake agreements materialize. Without them, EQT's gas remains stranded in oversupplied regional markets. Each new contract signals stronger path to monetizing the production surplus; their absence suggests persistent discount economics versus condensate and oil-linked alternatives.
- EQT Corp stock gains long-term LNG supply partner as Ignitis deal advances - AD HOC NEWS
- While Asia and Europe Scramble for Natural Gas, the US Glut Has Nowhere to Go - EnergyNow.com
Meta capex signal (capex)
↳ Meta capex signal reflects headline stating hyperscalers' capital expenditure will consume nearly all operating cash flow in 2026.
CEG $254.71 (-3.1%, 1.2σ)
↳ CEG fell 3.1% despite analyst reports of 37% upside potential, suggesting the move reflects broader market rotation away from nuclear stocks toward other themes despite their fundamental value.
KMI $31.84 (+1.7%, 1.2σ)
↳ KMI gained 1.7% on strong Q2 2026 earnings and dividend payout ratio recovery, with improved dividend sustainability attracting investor interest.
Quiet: AR -2.1% · NRG -2.4% · VST -2.0% · RRC -1.7% · AMZN +1.0% · NVDA +1.3% · LNG -0.6% · WMB +0.3% · TLN -0.3% · DVN -0.2%