EQT +8.5% (6.2σ) | HH $2.92 | 10 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Jul 29 - Aug 02, 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 87 total (10, 10, 12, 14, 14, 14, 13)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
“Pop-weighted CDD running 87 for the next 7 days, HDDs flatlined at zero.”
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.92 (+2.1%, 0.9σ)
↳ Henry Hub gained 2.1% as the market tests resistance near $3.00 amid mixed signals from mild weather offsetting pipeline constraint premiums in the Northwest and production economics.
Front/second (Q26/U26): +0.027 - backwardation
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.166 (H 3.018 / J 2.852)
Storage 3056 Bcf (+32 w/w, +171 vs 5-yr, -19 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-04): 122.3 Bcf/d, +4.1% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
“Hub printed 2.92, up 21 basis on the day, with Q26-U26 in backwardation at 2.7 and the widow-maker H27-J27 screaming wide at 16.6 cents.”
Power
ERCOT North DA $63.70 (prev $37.99) - heat rate 21.8 (prev 13.3) - spark $41.76 (prev $16.50)
PJM West DA $48.19 (prev $56.62) - heat rate 16.5 (prev 19.8) - spark $26.26 (prev $35.14)
CAISO SP15 DA $47.37 (prev $47.16) - heat rate 16.2 (prev 16.5) - spark $25.44 (prev $25.67)
“ERCOT North ripped to 63.70 with heat rates exploding to 21.8, spark spread 41.76 — PJM West backed off to 48.19 with rates cooling to 16.5 — CAISO holding steady at 47.37.”
Global gas & carbon
TTF €62.54/MWh (~$20.86/MMBtu) +4.8%
JKM $22.00/MMBtu +3.1%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $19.08/MMBtu; TTF−HH $17.93
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
“TTF bid 62.54 euros, that's 20.86 bucks on the meter, up 4.8 — JKM at 22.00 — carry from here to Asia 19 bucks, TTF into HH is long 17.93.”
Crude
WTI $86.83 (+2.3%, 0.7σ)
Brent $94.07 (+3.4%, 1.0σ)
Energy equities
EQT $54.01 (+8.5%, 6.2σ)
EQT reported stronger-than-expected Q2 production, including a record-setting well that prompted management to raise full-year guidance. The company also committed $85 million to accelerate the MVP Southgate project, with construction completion targeted for year-end. Strong production translates directly to higher cash generation and reserves replacement, justifying upward earnings revisions. The MVP Southgate acceleration removes a key infrastructure constraint that had previously limited production growth, allowing EQT to monetize additional volumes from the Marcellus. Watch MVP Southgate's construction timeline closely. Any delays or cost overruns could curtail the production growth EQT just promised, pressuring the stock. Additionally, monitor whether peers receive higher guidance or announce competing infrastructure projects that could affect Appalachian takeaway capacity pricing.
- EQT Stock Rises 8% As Strong Q2 Production Drives Higher Sales Guidance - TIKR.com
- EQT says record-setting well helped drive higher production outlook - WV News
- EQT commits $85M to accerate MVP Southgate, construction completion expected by end of year - WV News
AR $35.27 (+4.2%, 2.4σ)
↳ Antero Resources rallied 4.2% on valuation recognition and institutional accumulation following Q3 earnings results and FERC pipeline strategy developments.
RRC $38.75 (+2.6%, 1.4σ)
↳ Range Resources rose 2.6% despite Q2 earnings miss, supported by record drilling and fracking activity in the Utica and continued undervaluation thesis.
LNG $267.40 (+1.8%, 1.1σ)
↳ Cheniere Energy gained 1.8% on institutional buying activity, though headlines lack specific operational or market drivers beyond portfolio positioning.
NVDA $212.06 (+2.3%, 1.0σ)
↳ NVIDIA advanced 2.3% despite bearish commentary on Chinese competition, as AMD's new AI accelerator and networking announcements failed to offset broader semiconductor strength.
Quiet: NRG +6.4% · CEG +4.8% · VST +2.7% · WMB +1.5% · DVN +1.8% · TLN +3.1% · GOOGL -1.5% · KMI +0.3%
“EQT screaming 8.5% higher at 54.01 — AR up 4.2 to 35.27 — RRC grinding 2.6% to 38.75 — LNG barely bid at 267.40 — NVDA tacked on 2.3.”