ENERGY BRIEF · Thu Jul 23, 2026 · session Jul 22

THE NUMBER

$2.92

Henry Hub front month

+2.1%, 0.9σ - storage day: report ~10:30 ET

Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Jul 29 - Aug 02, 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 87 total (10, 10, 12, 14, 14, 14, 13)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.92 (+2.1%, 0.9σ)

↳ Henry Hub front-month rose 2.1% as pipeline constraints in the Northwest redirected Canadian supply flows, offsetting mild weather headwinds.

Front/second (Q26/U26): +0.027 - backwardation

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.166 (H 3.018 / J 2.852)

Storage 3056 Bcf (+32 w/w, +171 vs 5-yr, -19 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-04): 122.3 Bcf/d, +4.1% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

TIER 2

ERCOT North DA $63.70 (prev $37.99) - heat rate 21.8 (prev 13.3) - spark $41.76 (prev $16.50)

PJM West DA $48.19 (prev $56.62) - heat rate 16.5 (prev 19.8) - spark $26.26 (prev $35.14)

CAISO SP15 DA $47.37 (prev $47.16) - heat rate 16.2 (prev 16.5) - spark $25.44 (prev $25.67)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €62.54/MWh (~$20.86/MMBtu) +4.8%

JKM $22.00/MMBtu +3.1%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $19.08/MMBtu; TTF−HH $17.94

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $86.83 (+2.3%, 0.7σ)

Brent $94.07 (+3.4%, 1.0σ)

Energy equities

TIER 2

EQT $54.01 (+8.5%, 6.2σ)

EQT's 8.5% jump reflects Q2 production that exceeded expectations, prompting management to raise full-year guidance. A record-setting well contributed to the stronger output trajectory. The company also committed $85 million to accelerate MVP Southgate completion, targeting year-end delivery of this pipeline infrastructure project. Higher production guidance flows directly to revenue and cash flow expectations, improving near-term earnings visibility for investors. The MVP Southgate acceleration removes a key execution risk—pipeline delays have historically constrained Appalachian gas producer realizations, so removing bottlenecks supports the margin story. Watch whether EQT's guidance increase gets validated in subsequent quarters as wells ramp. Production guidance beats are only valuable if operations actually deliver, particularly given the project-completion dependency embedded in their 2024 assumptions.

• EQT Stock Rises 8% As Strong Q2 Production Drives Higher Sales Guidance - TIKR.com

• EQT says record-setting well helped drive higher production outlook - WV News

• EQT commits $85M to accerate MVP Southgate, construction completion expected by end of year - WV News

AR $35.27 (+4.2%, 2.4σ)

↳ Antero Resources gained 4.2% following Q2 earnings results and analyst coverage suggesting undervaluation, with new institutional positioning.

RRC $38.75 (+2.6%, 1.4σ)

↳ Range Resources climbed 2.6% after Q2 results highlighted record drilling and fracking activity, despite mixed earnings expectations and gas market headwinds.

LNG $267.40 (+1.8%, 1.1σ)

↳ Cheniere Energy advanced 1.8% on modest institutional buying activity, though headline context does not explain the specific driver.

NVDA $212.06 (+2.3%, 1.0σ)

↳ NVIDIA gained 2.3% despite published bear case commentary; headlines indicate competitive pressure from AMD's new AI accelerator announcements rather than supporting NVIDIA strength.

Quiet: NRG +6.4% · CEG +4.8% · VST +2.7% · WMB +1.5% · DVN +1.8% · TLN +3.1% · GOOGL -1.5% · KMI +0.3%