Indexes

Wall Street walks into one of the most crowded mornings of the year: a June inflation report at 8:30, five of the largest banks reporting inside the same hour, and Kevin Warsh's first testimony as Fed chair after lunch. Index futures are modestly lower ahead of it — the S&P 500 off 0.2% against Monday's close, the Dow 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 lagging a touch more as the memory-chip selling that began in Korea runs into a third day. The caution reads as less about direction than about how much arrives at once.

Asia set the defensive tone, and Seoul wore most of it. The Kospi fell another 3% as SK Hynix and Samsung extended Monday's record rout, while Tokyo and Hong Kong drifted off less than a percent.

Europe is the calmer screen, the Stoxx 600 hovering near 641 and a shade lower, with energy shares climbing alongside crude to cushion the softer industrial and travel names, per Reuters.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

Rates are carrying the message this morning. Yields backed up across the curve as traders read the crude jump the way they did on Monday, as a reason the Fed may keep rates high or raise them, lifting the 10-year to a two-month high while the front end held near levels last seen in early 2025. The dollar firmed on the same logic, and gold slid again, its haven appeal blunted by the climb in real yields.

Technicals

At 7,515 after Monday's dip, the S&P 500 holds above its 50-day average near 7,400 and sits on the 7,500 line that now marks first support, with 7,575 the record to reclaim. Tech is the weak point: the Nasdaq 100 at 29,264 is back under its 20-day and leaning on 29,000 as the memory names pull. The ten-year yield, at 4.62%, presses the top of the range that has held it since spring, and a sustained move above 4.65% would put the year's highs back in play. The sharpest move this morning is in energy, where Chevron and the majors gapped higher with crude; Chevron's hourly chart captures the breakout.

Chevron (CVX), hourly. The oil majors gap higher as crude extends its run on the Hormuz threat.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Chevron (CVX) — broke out above $182 to a new high for the move as crude ran; the spring peak near $186 is the next resistance.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — gapped through $143, back atop its spring range and leading the majors; $148 marks the June high overhead.

Breakdowns

Micron (MU) — sliding toward $850 in the pre-market, having lost the $950 shelf it held last week as the selloff deepened; the early-July low is the next support.

Nvidia (NVDA) — slipping under $200 again, off its late-June record of $216 as the AI leaders track memory lower; $195 is the level that held through June.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), daily. Oil producers break higher as crude rallies on the Hormuz standoff.

Micron (MU), daily. Memory shares extend their slide after SK Hynix's record drop in Seoul.

Top Movers

Gainers

JPMorgan (JPM) opened the bank slate with a beat, reporting earnings of $7.70 a share against roughly $5.85 expected on revenue of $58.0 billion, both well clear of forecasts as trading and dealmaking picked up. The market's attention is less on the print than on the guidance behind it, since management trimmed its net-interest-income outlook only a quarter ago and investors want to hear it has stabilized. For what it is worth on an earnings day, the stock has closed lower after each of its last four reports.

Wells Fargo (WFC) beat as well, at $2.00 a share versus $1.72 on stronger fee income, and Bank of America edged past estimates at $1.21. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are due within the hour, Goldman carrying the widest options-implied swing of the group at about 6%.

Energy stocks are the market's one green corner, with Exxon, Chevron and Occidental all higher as crude jumps.

Losers

Micron (MU) fell about 6% before the bell, the worst of the US memory names, extending a selloff that began with SK Hynix's record drop in Seoul. Storage makers SanDisk and Western Digital fell harder still, each down 6% to 7%, as the whole group handed back its early-July gains.

SK Hynix (SKHY) extended its unwind, the US shares down about 9% as the round trip from Friday's blockbuster debut ran into a second session. Nvidia and Broadcom slipped 1% to 2% in sympathy, a reminder that the AI trade still rides on a short list of names.

JPMorgan (JPM), daily. The largest US bank tops estimates as the second-quarter reporting season opens.

Macro Calendar

Tuesday turns on one number. The June Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET is the last major inflation reading before the Fed's late-July meeting, and it lands in a bond market already leaning toward a hike.

The headline is expected to soften toward 3.9% year-over-year from 4.2%, driven mostly by a double-digit drop in June gasoline prices, a decline that predates this month's oil spike. Core, seen at 0.2% on the month and 2.9% annually, is the figure the Fed actually weighs; a firmer core would harden the case the bond market is already making.

Earnings Today

The banks are the earnings story today: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America have reported, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup follow before the open, and Morgan Stanley and BlackRock arrive Wednesday. Away from the financials, the pre-open and after-hours slates are both thin.

Drivers

1. The inflation report at 8:30 is the morning's hinge. A soft headline is widely expected, thanks to June's slide in gasoline, so the real information sits in the core reading and in the shelter and services details underneath it. The complication is timing: June's data predate the oil spike now working through the market, which means even a cool number may not settle a bond market that has spent the week pricing the risk of a rate hike rather than a cut. Consensus puts core at 0.2% on the month and 2.9% over the year.

2. The banks will be judged on guidance more than on the quarter just booked. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo already cleared estimates, but what moves the group is what management says about net interest income, loan losses and where the consumer stands as 2026 wears on. Goldman Sachs, which carries the widest implied move, reports within the hour.

3. Oil is the variable that touches everything else. WTI near $80 and Brent above $86 feed straight into the price pressures the Fed is watching, and whether the surge holds depends on the Strait of Hormuz staying open as Washington and Tehran trade claims over who controls it. Kevin Warsh takes his seat before the House at 10 a.m. ET for his first testimony as chair, the CPI reading by then two hours old.

SPY (S&P 500 ETF), daily. The broad market comes off Monday's dip into a data- and earnings-heavy Tuesday.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), daily. Large-cap tech stays heavy as the memory-chip selloff runs into a third day.