Ringside · Post-Bell · Jul 13
- Semiconductors dragged the Nasdaq 1.55%; SK Hynix's US shares shed 9% and Micron 6% after Friday's blockbuster debut.
- WTI jumped 3.5% to $73.89 as US-Iran strikes threatened the Strait of Hormuz; energy was the S&P's only green sector.
- Bonds sold off alongside stocks, with the two-year yield hitting a 16-month high near 4.24% on revived hike talk and gold down 2% to $4,020.
Indexes
A market perched at record highs met a weekend war scare, and the record gave way. All four major averages fell after President Trump ordered what he called a renewed blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude up more than 3% and reviving a fear that had gone quiet since spring: that costlier energy forces the Federal Reserve to hold rates high, or raise them. The losses sorted by exposure to that fear. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.55% as semiconductors took the brunt, the freshly listed US shares of SK Hynix falling about 9% and pulling every memory and AI-chip name down with them, while the Dow gave up only 0.26% because its energy components climbed with oil. The S&P 500 settled at 7,515.34, down 0.79% and 60 points under Friday's record, with the selling deepening into the afternoon as traders trimmed risk ahead of a Tuesday that stacks the June inflation report, five big-bank results, and the new Fed chair's first testimony into one morning. The sharpest signal came from outside the stock market: Treasuries sold off too, lifting the two-year yield to a 16-month high near 4.24%, the market's way of reading an oil shock as a reason to tighten.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Day Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,515.34 | -0.79% | 7,505–7,566 | Record gives way |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,873.18 | -1.55% | 25,858–26,165 | Chips lead the retreat |
| Dow Jones | 52,498.64 | -0.26% | 52,360–52,690 | Energy cushions the blow |
| Russell 2000 | 2,953.17 | -0.83% | 2,946–2,984 | Small caps slip again |
Sector Heat Map
| Sector (ETF) | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +1.27% | Only green sector; crude spike |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.36% | Steady into bank earnings |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.32% | Defensive bid |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.09% | |
| Comm Services (XLC) | +0.04% | |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.12% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.18% | |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.34% | |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.51% | Higher yields press REITs |
| Consumer Disc. (XLY) | -0.63% | Amazon, Tesla weigh |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.53% | Selloff epicenter |
Only energy escaped, riding the oil move; the day was less a rotation into a new leader than a retreat from the AI and growth names that have carried the year, with classic defensives holding roughly steady and technology absorbing the whole loss.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Treasuries read the oil move as an inflation signal and sold off across maturities, the front end most, which flattened the curve as traders pulled forward the odds of a Fed tightening. The dollar went nowhere despite the risk-off backdrop, and gold's failure to rally carried the same message the curve did.
| Rate & Vol | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.24% | 16-month high; hike odds rise |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.59% | Sells off with the front end |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.08% | |
| 2s10s Spread | +35 bp | Flatter as the front end leads |
| VIX | 16.6 | Rises but stays subdued |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 100.9 | No haven bid |
| Commodity | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $73.89 | +3.5% on the Hormuz threat |
| Brent Crude | $78.30 | Tracks WTI higher |
| Gold | $4,020 | Second straight decline |
| Nat Gas | $2.89 | Near a six-week low |
Technicals
At 7,515, the S&P 500 sits back under Friday's record but holds well above its rising 50-day average near 7,380; the 7,500 line it is now testing is the first support that matters, with 7,575 the record to reclaim. The Nasdaq Composite fell hardest, slipping under 26,000 to 25,873 as the chip trade unwound. In rates, the 10-year at 4.59% is pressing the top of the range that has held since spring, and a sustained push above 4.60% would bring the year's highs back into view; the two-year's jump to a 16-month high says the pressure is already building. Among single names, memory fared worst. Micron fell nearly 6%, and its hourly chart below shows a slide that barely paused from the open.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Chevron (CVX) — tagged $181.24 before closing at $180.18, pressing the top of a multi-week range; a close above $182 would confirm the move and bring the spring high back into view.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) — up 3.1%, the biggest gain among the megacaps, carrying the energy group back toward the highs it set during the spring oil run.
Breakdowns
Micron (MU) — down about 6%, the memory group's worst, surrendering most of the ground it gained in June as the SK Hynix listing unwound.
Nvidia (NVDA) — off 3.4%, slipping from record territory and pulling the Nasdaq with it, the sharpest pullback in the AI leaders since late June.
Top Movers
Gainers
Halliburton (HAL) rose 2.9% after winning integrated well-construction contracts from France's TotalEnergies for the GranMorgu deepwater project off Suriname. The award landed as the crude spike lifted the whole services group, a reminder that the oilfield names carry both a commodity tailwind and their own order books. Watch whether that contract momentum shows through when Halliburton reports later this month.
Occidental (OXY) added 1.6%, the most oil-levered of the large US producers and a favored proxy for a crude rally, though it trailed Exxon and Chevron on the day.
Losers
AppLovin (APP) fell about 11%, the worst session among the large software names, with no company news to explain it. The selling was partly the broad exit from expensive AI-adjacent stocks and partly a Bank of America note flagging a slower pace of e-commerce ad growth in June, roughly 750 new advertiser pixels added versus about 950 in May, which fed worries about the late-June rollout of its self-serve AXON ad engine. The business has not changed since it grew revenue 24% last quarter, which is the point: a one-day move this size on no news says more about how crowded the trade had become than about the company.
Broadcom (AVGO) dropped about 4%, swept up in the memory-led chip selloff even though its custom-silicon and networking business has little to do with SK Hynix's memory glut.
SK Hynix saw its newly listed US shares slide sharply, unwinding much of Friday's debut pop after the Seoul-listed stock posted its worst day on record; the selling in Korea set the tone for every chip name globally.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slid nearly 4% on the same chip-wide risk-off.
Key Macro Data Today
Monday offered almost nothing ahead of Tuesday's deluge. The only scheduled release was the June federal budget statement at 2 p.m. ET, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman spoke on bank capital; neither registered against the oil and chip headlines. The real data begins tomorrow.
Notable Earnings This Session
A thin day for results, with the marquee slate still a session away.
Pre-Open
A quiet slate before the bell, with Fastenal (FAST) the only widely followed name; the industrial distributor's results drew little attention with the banks a day away.
Post-Close
Also light after the close, where Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) topped a short list of small caps. The season's real opening is Tuesday, when JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all report before the bell.
Drivers
June's inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET is the number the week turns on. Consensus has the headline rate dipping 0.1% for the month, enough to nudge the annual pace to roughly 3.9% from May's 4.2%, with the core measure steady near 2.9%. After today the base case matters less than the surprise, because a firmer core would ratify the tightening the bond market started to price, and with crude climbing, the cooling-inflation case that underwrote this year's rally goes on trial.
Bank earnings arrive next: five of the largest US lenders report before the bell, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs opening the season together. Net interest income guidance and loan-loss reserves will set the tone for whether higher-for-longer rates read as a tailwind or a warning for the group.
Oil has the last word. Whether crude holds today's gain turns on the Strait of Hormuz staying navigable, and the early read is not reassuring: shipping tracker Kpler counted just six vessels transiting the strait on Sunday, a five-week low.