Indexes

Wednesday closed green across the board, the S&P 500 up 0.4% to 7,572.40, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.6% to 26,269.23, and Apple finishing at a record after Beijing cleared its AI features for the China market. Thursday opens split. Dow futures sit 0.2% firmer, carried almost single-handedly by a 7.6% jump in UnitedHealth after a large earnings beat, while Nasdaq 100 futures trade 0.5% lower as the chip group buckles again. The fault line is semiconductors: Taiwan Semiconductor posted record profit and lifted its outlook overnight and still fell, and Asia handled the same news far less calmly than Wall Street is set to.

Asia is where the same story turned violent, and Seoul took the worst of it. The Kospi fell 6.4% and tripped circuit breakers as the Bank of Korea's surprise rate hike collided with an 11.5% drop in SK Hynix and an 8.8% slide in Samsung. Tokyo fell in sympathy, mainland China eased about 0.2%, and Hong Kong was the one green screen in the region.

Europe is the calm corner by comparison, the major bourses within a few tenths of a percent of flat, the DAX off 0.6%, the FTSE 100 down 0.1% and the CAC 40 little moved, with ASML higher again after raising its full-year sales guidance for the second time this year, per Reuters.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

Bonds are the quiet story after two soft inflation reports. Yields have crept a couple of basis points higher this morning, less on inflation fear than on position-squaring before retail sales, leaving the 10-year near 4.57% and the curve gently steeper. A softer dollar and a becalmed gold price round out the picture: even a fifth day of strikes on Iran has not pulled bullion far from $4,000, as cooler inflation and steady real yields offset the haven bid.

Technicals

The broad averages sit comfortably above their trend lines even with technology wobbling. Wednesday's close at 7,572 keeps the S&P 500 about 60 points above its 50-day line near 7,509 and a shade over 100 above the 200-day, so first support on any pullback is well below where the index trades now. The Nasdaq Composite is the tighter picture: at 26,269 it rests barely 80 points above its own 50-day near 26,185, the line the chip selling is now testing from above. On rates, the 10-year at 4.57% sits mid-range, roughly 20 basis points under the spring highs near 4.75% and well off the year's lows, so neither boundary is in play today. Taiwan Semiconductor's hourly chart, below, captures the whiplash: a record quarter, then a 4% drop once the raised spending plan landed.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), hourly. Record quarterly profit gave way to a 4% drop once the raised capital-spending plan reached investors.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Apple (AAPL) — closed at a record $327.50 on Wednesday, up 4% after Beijing approved its AI features for China; with no overhead resistance left, the $350 zone flagged by the sell-side is the next marker.

UnitedHealth (UNH) — the 7.6% pre-market jump on its earnings beat lifts the stock back above its 50-day line for the first time since its spring slide, an early sign the year-long downtrend may be breaking.

Breakdowns

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — a beat-and-raise that fell 4%, pulling the ADR back toward its 50-day and dragging the wider chip group with it; the reaction, not the result, is the warning.

Micron (MU) — the largest U.S. memory name is indicated lower alongside the Korean rout, and a loss of its 50-day would rhyme with the 11.5% drop in SK Hynix overnight.

UnitedHealth (UNH), daily. A 7.6% earnings gap lifts the stock back toward levels it last held in the spring.

Apple (AAPL), daily. A record close after China cleared its AI features leaves the stock in open air above prior highs.

Top Movers

Gainers

UnitedHealth (UNH) jumped 7.6% before the bell after second-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.38 a share blew past the $4.90 analysts expected, on revenue of $112.03 billion, and management raised its full-year profit outlook. The beat matters because UnitedHealth has spent the past year as the Dow's problem child, dogged by elevated medical costs and a leadership change, so a clean quarter with higher guidance is the first solid evidence the worst has passed. It is the single biggest reason Dow futures are green while the rest of the board leans red.

J.B. Hunt (JBHT) rose about 7% after the freight hauler earned $1.73 a share against roughly $1.55 expected, with management noting that intermodal demand strengthened as the quarter wore on, a hopeful signal for the wider shipping and industrial economy.

Losers

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) fell about 4% despite a record quarter, with net profit up 77% to roughly $22 billion and sales guidance raised, because the company also lifted 2026 capital spending to $60 billion to $64 billion from $52 billion to $56 billion and committed a further $100 billion to plants in Arizona. Investors read the heavier spending as pressure on margins and free cash flow, and the reaction set the tone for chip stocks worldwide. The message to the rest of the AI-hardware group is unforgiving: if the best operator in the business can post record numbers and still fall on spending, the bar for everyone else has just risen.

GE Aerospace (GE) slipped 4% even after beating estimates and raising guidance, a sell-the-news drop from a stock priced for perfection at record highs.

Macro Calendar

Thursday brings the first real data since inflation cooled, and it leans toward the consumer.

Retail sales is the one that can move rates. After two cool inflation reports revived hopes for a September cut, a soft spending number would harden that case, while a hot one would complicate a Fed already watching oil climb. The claims figure matters more than usual as an early read on whether the summer's energy and tariff pressures are reaching hiring.

Earnings Today

The morning slate is heavy on blue chips: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace and J.B. Hunt have reported, with Taiwan Semiconductor's overnight numbers already moving the chip group. After the close, the headliner is Netflix, expected to earn about $0.79 a share on $12.58 billion in revenue, with attention on advertising sales tracking toward a $3 billion annual run-rate and paid memberships past 325 million. Netflix shares have fallen on earnings day four quarters running, and the stock comes into tonight down roughly 20% on the year.

Drivers

1. The chip group sets the tone at the open, and the real question is whether Wall Street follows Asia down or shrugs it off. Taiwan Semiconductor gave the bulls everything except a rising stock, record profit and higher guidance, and still fell 4% on a bigger spending plan, while Seoul's memory names dropped double digits and forced circuit breakers. If U.S. semiconductors steady, Wednesday's rally has room to extend; if they give way where the Nasdaq Composite's 50-day near 26,185 is being tested, the selling that started in Korea finally reaches New York.

2. Retail sales at 8:30 is the data point with the most reach. Consensus looks for a soft 0.3% after May's strong 0.9%, and with two cool inflation reports already banked, a weak spending figure would pull September rate-cut odds higher. The catch is that June's data were collected before crude's latest run, so the market may treat even a clean number as old news.

3. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz sit under everything else. Crude is holding near a one-month high with Brent just under $85, and the blockade has thinned traffic through the strait to a trickle, 13 ships in the last 24 hours, even as prices have stopped climbing. The Bank of Korea became the first central bank to act on that inflation risk this morning; the Federal Reserve, which next meets July 28-29, is watching the same barrel.

Broad market on a daily view (SPY). Equities hold just below Wednesday's record as gains outside technology cushion the chip selling.

Large-cap technology, daily (QQQ). The Nasdaq 100 fund eases at the open as semiconductors lead the pullback.