Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jul 09
- The AI trade retakes the wheel: Nasdaq futures up 0.5% as chips extend Wednesday's bounce, with SK Hynix's roughly $29 billion Nasdaq debut, the biggest ADR listing on record, due Friday.
- Oil cools from the spike: WTI back near $74 and Brent near $78 as markets look past a second night of US strikes on Iran.
- Yields sit at mid-May highs, the 10-year at 4.59%, with weekly jobless claims (consensus about 219,000) at 8:30 a.m. ET the next test.
Indexes
Risk appetite came back overnight, and the reason was less about the Middle East than about what has led this market all year. Oil slipped back from Wednesday's spike, US forces struck Iran a second night without disrupting Gulf shipping, and with that overhang easing, money rotated straight back into the semiconductor and AI-hardware names that had carried the tape before the war scare. The focal point is Friday, when memory maker SK Hynix begins trading on Nasdaq in the largest American depositary receipt debut ever attempted. Futures point modestly higher, with the Nasdaq 100 leading.
| Future | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ES) | 7,550.25 | +0.29% | Back above the July 6 record of 7,537 |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) | 29,626.25 | +0.54% | Chips lead the rebound |
| Dow (YM) | 52,703.00 | +0.15% | Recoups part of Wednesday's 586-point drop |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) | 2,981.90 | +0.35% | Edging back toward 3,000 |
Overseas trading was calmer than the headlines suggested. In Asia, chip-heavy Seoul and Tokyo firmed, with SK Hynix again among the Kospi's leaders into its US listing, while Hong Kong held steady. Europe opened a touch higher, the DAX and CAC 40 each up about half a percent and London's FTSE 100 flat, as the energy shares that led Wednesday gave a little back alongside crude.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Yields stayed near two-month highs even as equities steadied, because the oil premium keeps the inflation question alive and last week's Fed minutes handed the hawks fresh cover. The dollar held its recent gains, and gold turned back up as it found footing after three days of slipping.
| Rates & Vol | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.19% | Fresh 2026 high |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.59% | Highest since mid-May |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.01% | Holds above 5% |
| 2s10s spread | +40 bp | Long end still leads |
| VIX | 16.90 | Off Wednesday's 18 spike |
| FX & Commodities | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.0 | Holds above 101 |
| WTI Crude | $73.85 | Cooling after the spike |
| Brent Crude | $78.33 | Still carries a war premium |
| Gold | $4,113 | Rebounds off Wednesday's $4,030 low |
| Nat Gas | $3.21 | Steady before the EIA storage report |
Technicals
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,477.62, and this morning's futures point back above the July 6 record of 7,537; reclaiming that high on the cash session would leave the index in uncharted territory, with first support around 7,455. The Nasdaq Composite at 25,857 sits back inside the June breakout zone that framed the spring advance, carried by the chip bid. On rates, the 10-year at 4.59% is pressing the top of its two-month range, and a cash close above 4.60% would put the spring high near 4.69% back in view, while the 2-year at 4.19% has quietly notched a fresh 2026 high. The sharpest technical move this morning is Arista Networks, which pushed into record ground on its new AI-switch launch; its intraday chart is below.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Arista Networks (ANET) — cleared into record territory near $181 after launching its 1.6-terabit AI switches and drawing target hikes toward $200 from KeyBanc, Morgan Stanley and BofA; the round $200 is the next marker overhead.
Broadcom (AVGO) — held the breakout above its June range near $389 that followed Wednesday's $30 billion Apple supply agreement, keeping the path toward the spring high intact so long as it stays above $380.
Breakdowns
Micron (MU) — back below its 20-day average and pressing toward $930 support as memory-pricing caution lingers and SK Hynix's listing sharpens the competitive read; losing $930 opens the door to the June low.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) — after clearing $152 on Wednesday's oil spike, it is testing the $150 breakout line again as crude cools, the level that decides whether the move holds or fades back into the range.
Top Movers
Gainers
Arista Networks (ANET) climbed roughly 7% on Wednesday and traded firm again pre-market, the standout of the AI-networking group, after it unveiled 1.6-terabit switches for rack-scale AI and drew a run of price-target increases toward $200. The market is treating Arista as the most direct way to own surging AI networking demand without owning Nvidia directly, with a front-end refresh cycle and partnerships spanning Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, AMD and Broadcom behind the call. Watch whether the deferred-revenue and supply concerns that dogged earlier quarters keep fading, as KeyBanc argued this week.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose about 3.5% Wednesday and extended the gain into the pre-market, reversing the early-week chip slide after Bloomberg reported Beijing will let its largest AI firms buy the company's H200 processors. The report reopened a China channel the market had written off, and it set the tone for the whole complex heading into SK Hynix's debut.
Losers
Micron (MU) slipped about 3.4% pre-market, lagging the broader chip bounce as caution over memory pricing persisted into the SK Hynix listing week. The pressure remains sentiment and valuation rather than any change to its sold-out order book.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) eased as crude gave back part of Wednesday's jump, handing back some of the oil-spike premium that had made energy the one green group a day earlier.
Macro Calendar
| Event | Time ET | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims | 8:30 am | Consensus about 219,000 |
| Continuing claims | 8:30 am | Read on rehiring |
| EIA natural gas storage | 10:30 am | Second-tier |
| 30-Year bond auction | 1:00 pm | Demand test at a 5% yield |
Jobless claims are the release that matters, and they land into a rate-sensitive market. After Friday's soft payrolls report revived talk of a cut, a claims number that also comes in soft would strengthen that case; a firm one leaves yields with room to press higher. The 30-year auction at 1 p.m. offers an afternoon read on how much appetite there is for long-dated paper at 5%.
Earnings Today
Second-quarter season opens before the bell with PepsiCo (PEP), where the consensus is about $2.21 in earnings on $23.96 billion in revenue, up from $2.12 a year ago. The number that matters is North American snack volume, the clearest read on whether shoppers are still accepting price increases or trading down; analysts have trimmed estimates into the report, so the setup leans cautious. The after-close slate is bare, with Delta Air Lines the next marquee name, due Friday.
Drivers
1. The AI trade reclaiming leadership faces its next proof point on Friday, when SK Hynix lists on Nasdaq. A strong open would validate this week's bounce in chips and the premium the market pays for anything tied to high-bandwidth memory; a soft one would revive the glut worry that Samsung's cautious commentary stirred last week. The offering is expected to price late Thursday, with the shares trading under the ticker SKHY from Friday's open.
2. Whether oil keeps cooling or reprices higher turns on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI has slipped to about $74 and Brent to $78 as a second night of US strikes passed without a shipping disruption, but any interruption to transit through the strait would put the premium straight back. Tanker traffic through the strait is the signal to watch, the line between a headline and a lasting supply problem.
3. Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET are the week's cleanest read on the labor market, and they arrive with the 10-year at 4.59%, its highest since mid-May. A soft claims number would re-engage the rate-cut case that Friday's payrolls revived, while a firm one leaves the 10-year room toward its spring high near 4.69%. The $22 billion 30-year auction at 1 p.m. is the day's second read on demand for duration at a 5% yield.