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July 9, 2026

Ringside · Post-Bell · Jul 9

Ringside
Post-BellThursday, July 9, 2026
Top Three
  1. Semiconductors drove the S&P 500 to a record 7,543.64, up 0.9%, while crude slipped.
  2. Micron jumped 7.5% on a $3 billion US plant plan and AMD rose 7.2%, while Alphabet fell 2.5%.
  3. Brent settled near $77, off about 1.4%, as a second night of US strikes on Iran spared Gulf shipping; the 10-year eased to 4.54%.

Indexes

Wall Street set a week of war headlines aside and put the record back on the board. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% to close at 7,543.64, edging past Monday's high into new territory, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.35% to 26,206.89 and the Dow added 148 points to 52,487.41. The engine was semiconductors: the group that had led the market lower during last week's chip scare came roaring back. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.5% and the broader iShares Semiconductor fund rose more than 5%. Micron committed up to $3 billion to expand its US supply chain and gained 7.5%, and AMD rose 7.2% after a Morgan Stanley note flagged larger advanced-packaging orders through 2027. The rally carried a cost on the other side of the ledger, as money left the software and platform giants to chase the hardware names; Alphabet's 2.5% slide made it the single heaviest drag on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Beneath it all, crude gave back part of the premium the strikes had added, with Brent settling near $77, and the 10-year yield slipped to 4.54%.

IndexClose% ChgDay RangeNote
S&P 5007,543.64+0.88%7,486–7,546First record since Monday
Nasdaq Composite26,206.89+1.35%25,905–26,210Chips do the lifting
Dow Jones52,487.41+0.28%52,350–52,590Lags the tape
Russell 20002,974.03+0.60%2,957–2,980Still shy of 3,000

Sector Heat Map

Leadership was narrow: technology carried the board on the chip bid, and only two groups finished meaningfully lower.

Sector (ETF)% ChgNote
Technology (XLK)+0.8%Semis reclaim the lead
Financials (XLF)+0.8%Cyclical bid as yields ease
Industrials (XLI)+0.6%
Consumer Disc. (XLY)+0.5%
Health Care (XLV)+0.4%
Real Estate (XLRE)+0.3%Softer 10-year helps
Materials (XLB)+0.2%
Consumer Staples (XLP)0.0%
Utilities (XLU)-0.2%
Energy (XLE)-1.3%Crude gives back the spike
Communication Svcs (XLC)-1.4%Alphabet the heavy weight

The split ran along a single axis: hardware over software, with cooler oil pulling energy down and the rotation out of the megacap platforms sinking communication services.

In the News

Trade fight turns to Spain. President Trump said he had ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all US trade with Spain, calling the NATO member a "terrible partner." Spain's IBEX 35 sank 2.3% to a three-week low, the worst showing among Europe's major indexes, per Reuters.
Iran threat sharpens. At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the United States would "very probably" strike Iran "hard again" and floated reimposing a naval blockade, even as traders looked through a second night of strikes that left tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz intact.
Hike odds climb. Futures traders lifted the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to about 70% from 58% a day earlier, reading Wednesday's divided minutes and a firm labor market as cover for the hawks, per CNBC.
Europe shrugs, mostly. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up 0.8% as investors looked past the Middle East flare-up, though the Spain selloff and softer energy shares capped the advance and left the gains uneven across the region.
Consumer feels the squeeze. PepsiCo said North American food and drink demand softened as shoppers tightened budgets under renewed inflation, a caution that tracks with the pressure on staples names even as the company held its full-year outlook.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Yields eased even though jobless claims came in firm, because softer crude took some of the inflation premium back out of the market and pulled the 10-year down from the 4.60% line it had pressed on Wednesday. The dollar held its recent gains, and gold slipped for a second session as the haven bid built during the war scare unwound.

Rates & VolLevelNote
2-Year Treasury4.17%Holds near a fresh 2026 high
10-Year Treasury4.54%Backs off the 4.60% press
30-Year Treasury5.06%$22B auction cleared at 1 pm
2s10s Spread+37 bpA touch steeper
VIX16.1Holds near 16 on weekend war risk
Dollar Index (DXY)101.1Keeps its gains
CommoditiesLevelNote
WTI Crude$72.50Snaps a two-day rally
Brent Crude$76.97Off about 1.4%
Gold$4,082Slips a second session
Nat Gas$3.18Rangebound near $3.20

Technicals

A record close resets the technical map. The S&P 500 at 7,543.64 clears the July 6 high of 7,537 and leaves the index in uncharted ground, with the rising 20- and 50-day averages beneath it and first support back near 7,480. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,206.89 pushed back to the top of its June breakout zone, carried by the chip bid. In the bond market, the 10-year at 4.54% has stepped back from the 4.60% level it tested Wednesday; a daily close above 4.60% would put the spring high near 4.69% back in play, while the 2-year at 4.17% sits at the upper edge of its 2026 range. Micron made the session's sharpest move, reclaiming the 20-day average and the $930 shelf it had been testing on the heaviest volume in the memory group. The hourly chart below tracks the gap higher and the grind that followed.

Micron intraday hourly chart
MU, Micron (hourly): the gap higher after the $3 billion plan, holding the reclaimed 20-day average.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Micron (MU) — reclaimed its 20-day average and the $930 shelf on the $3 billion domestic plan, up 7.5%; recent highs are the next marker overhead.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — cleared back above its June range on the Morgan Stanley packaging note, up 7.2%, with the prior high the level to reclaim next.

Breakdowns

Alphabet (GOOGL) — lost its 20-day average as the rotation out of megacap platforms bit, down 2.5%; the June low is the next support underneath.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — slipped back under the $150 breakout line as crude cooled, handing back the oil-spike gain and falling back into its prior range.

AMD daily chart
AMD (daily): a 7% jump back above the June range on the packaging note.
Alphabet daily chart
GOOGL, Alphabet (daily): a 2.5% slide below the 20-day as money left the platform megacaps.

Top Movers

Gainers

Micron (MU) jumped 7.5% after saying it will invest up to $3 billion to strengthen the US semiconductor supply chain, a plan that reframed the memory maker as a beneficiary of the onshoring push rather than a casualty of the pricing worry that had dogged it into this week. The move reversed an early dip and pulled the broader memory group higher, a signal worth watching as SK Hynix prepares its Nasdaq debut Friday.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 7.2% after Morgan Stanley projected larger advanced-packaging allocations for the company through 2027, adding an analyst catalyst to a broad chip rebound. The market is treating AMD as a direct way to own accelerator demand alongside Nvidia, and the packaging call speaks to supply the Street had feared would constrain the ramp.

Broadcom (AVGO) added 3.3%, extending the gain from Wednesday's $30 billion Apple supply agreement and holding above its June breakout.

Losers

Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 2.5%, the single heaviest drag on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as the day's rotation ran straight out of the software and platform megacaps and into semiconductor hardware. There was no company-specific news behind the slide; it was a positioning move, and it is the clearest sign that the chip bounce is being funded by selling elsewhere in tech.

Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 1.2%, lagging the chip rally as profit-taking followed a two-day bounce and money rotated toward Micron and AMD.

PepsiCo (PEP) eased about 1.7% after a slight earnings miss, reporting $2.20 a share against the $2.23 consensus on revenue of $24.18 billion, a shade under estimates. International demand stayed strong, but North American food and beverage volumes softened as shoppers traded down, and the reaffirmed full-year outlook was not enough to offset the volume signal.

Key Macro Data Today

Thursday's calendar was thin but pointed, and the labor read leaned firm.

ReleaseActualConsensusNote
Initial jobless claims (wk 7/4)215K218KBelow forecast; labor still tight

The claims reading, the lowest in three weeks, hands the Fed's hike camp another data point and is part of why September hike odds jumped during the session. The Treasury also sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 pm, a routine afternoon read on demand for long-dated paper with the yield near 5%.

Notable Earnings This Session

The second-quarter season cracked open with one marquee name and an otherwise quiet slate.

Pre-Open

PepsiCo (PEP) opened the reporting season with a slight miss and a reaffirmed outlook (see Top Movers). The signal for staples is the North American consumer: volumes softened as budgets tightened, a caution that will follow every packaged-food name into the quarter.

Post-Close

The after-close slate was bare. Delta Air Lines (DAL) opens the airline season before Friday's bell, with the Street looking for $1.48 a share on revenue of $18.78 billion; Delta has topped Wall Street's earnings consensus four quarters running.

Drivers

1. The SK Hynix listing is the week's real test. The Korean memory maker priced its Nasdaq shares late Thursday and starts trading Friday under the ticker SKHY, in what would rank as the largest American depositary receipt debut on record at $29 billion. How the stock holds up will tell subscribers whether this week's chip bounce has real buyers behind it or was a two-day cover of oversold positions, with memory pricing the question the market keeps circling back to.

2. Delta Air Lines reports before the open and sets the tone for travel demand into the back half of the year. Revenue is expected to grow near 13% while earnings fall almost 30% from a year ago, the scissors of higher labor and fuel costs against a full-price consumer, and management's read on corporate versus leisure bookings will matter more than the headline.

3. Oil is the variable that can undo the calm. WTI near $72.50 and Brent near $77 have taken back part of the geopolitical premium on the view that Gulf shipping keeps flowing, but Trump's blockade talk and the threat to strike Iran "hard again" leave the Strait of Hormuz one headline away from repricing. Tanker traffic through the strait is the signal, and it stayed normal on Thursday.

SPY daily chart
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF (daily): a record close caps the chip-led recovery.
QQQ daily chart
QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (daily): the semiconductor bounce turns the trend back up.

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