Ringside · Post-Bell · Jul 9
- Semiconductors drove the S&P 500 to a record 7,543.64, up 0.9%, while crude slipped.
- Micron jumped 7.5% on a $3 billion US plant plan and AMD rose 7.2%, while Alphabet fell 2.5%.
- Brent settled near $77, off about 1.4%, as a second night of US strikes on Iran spared Gulf shipping; the 10-year eased to 4.54%.
Indexes
Wall Street set a week of war headlines aside and put the record back on the board. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% to close at 7,543.64, edging past Monday's high into new territory, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.35% to 26,206.89 and the Dow added 148 points to 52,487.41. The engine was semiconductors: the group that had led the market lower during last week's chip scare came roaring back. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.5% and the broader iShares Semiconductor fund rose more than 5%. Micron committed up to $3 billion to expand its US supply chain and gained 7.5%, and AMD rose 7.2% after a Morgan Stanley note flagged larger advanced-packaging orders through 2027. The rally carried a cost on the other side of the ledger, as money left the software and platform giants to chase the hardware names; Alphabet's 2.5% slide made it the single heaviest drag on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Beneath it all, crude gave back part of the premium the strikes had added, with Brent settling near $77, and the 10-year yield slipped to 4.54%.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Day Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,543.64 | +0.88% | 7,486–7,546 | First record since Monday |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,206.89 | +1.35% | 25,905–26,210 | Chips do the lifting |
| Dow Jones | 52,487.41 | +0.28% | 52,350–52,590 | Lags the tape |
| Russell 2000 | 2,974.03 | +0.60% | 2,957–2,980 | Still shy of 3,000 |
Sector Heat Map
Leadership was narrow: technology carried the board on the chip bid, and only two groups finished meaningfully lower.
| Sector (ETF) | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +0.8% | Semis reclaim the lead |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.8% | Cyclical bid as yields ease |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.6% | |
| Consumer Disc. (XLY) | +0.5% | |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.4% | |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.3% | Softer 10-year helps |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.2% | |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 0.0% | |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.2% | |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.3% | Crude gives back the spike |
| Communication Svcs (XLC) | -1.4% | Alphabet the heavy weight |
The split ran along a single axis: hardware over software, with cooler oil pulling energy down and the rotation out of the megacap platforms sinking communication services.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Yields eased even though jobless claims came in firm, because softer crude took some of the inflation premium back out of the market and pulled the 10-year down from the 4.60% line it had pressed on Wednesday. The dollar held its recent gains, and gold slipped for a second session as the haven bid built during the war scare unwound.
| Rates & Vol | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.17% | Holds near a fresh 2026 high |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.54% | Backs off the 4.60% press |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.06% | $22B auction cleared at 1 pm |
| 2s10s Spread | +37 bp | A touch steeper |
| VIX | 16.1 | Holds near 16 on weekend war risk |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.1 | Keeps its gains |
| Commodities | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $72.50 | Snaps a two-day rally |
| Brent Crude | $76.97 | Off about 1.4% |
| Gold | $4,082 | Slips a second session |
| Nat Gas | $3.18 | Rangebound near $3.20 |
Technicals
A record close resets the technical map. The S&P 500 at 7,543.64 clears the July 6 high of 7,537 and leaves the index in uncharted ground, with the rising 20- and 50-day averages beneath it and first support back near 7,480. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,206.89 pushed back to the top of its June breakout zone, carried by the chip bid. In the bond market, the 10-year at 4.54% has stepped back from the 4.60% level it tested Wednesday; a daily close above 4.60% would put the spring high near 4.69% back in play, while the 2-year at 4.17% sits at the upper edge of its 2026 range. Micron made the session's sharpest move, reclaiming the 20-day average and the $930 shelf it had been testing on the heaviest volume in the memory group. The hourly chart below tracks the gap higher and the grind that followed.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Micron (MU) — reclaimed its 20-day average and the $930 shelf on the $3 billion domestic plan, up 7.5%; recent highs are the next marker overhead.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — cleared back above its June range on the Morgan Stanley packaging note, up 7.2%, with the prior high the level to reclaim next.
Breakdowns
Alphabet (GOOGL) — lost its 20-day average as the rotation out of megacap platforms bit, down 2.5%; the June low is the next support underneath.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) — slipped back under the $150 breakout line as crude cooled, handing back the oil-spike gain and falling back into its prior range.
Top Movers
Gainers
Micron (MU) jumped 7.5% after saying it will invest up to $3 billion to strengthen the US semiconductor supply chain, a plan that reframed the memory maker as a beneficiary of the onshoring push rather than a casualty of the pricing worry that had dogged it into this week. The move reversed an early dip and pulled the broader memory group higher, a signal worth watching as SK Hynix prepares its Nasdaq debut Friday.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 7.2% after Morgan Stanley projected larger advanced-packaging allocations for the company through 2027, adding an analyst catalyst to a broad chip rebound. The market is treating AMD as a direct way to own accelerator demand alongside Nvidia, and the packaging call speaks to supply the Street had feared would constrain the ramp.
Broadcom (AVGO) added 3.3%, extending the gain from Wednesday's $30 billion Apple supply agreement and holding above its June breakout.
Losers
Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 2.5%, the single heaviest drag on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as the day's rotation ran straight out of the software and platform megacaps and into semiconductor hardware. There was no company-specific news behind the slide; it was a positioning move, and it is the clearest sign that the chip bounce is being funded by selling elsewhere in tech.
Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 1.2%, lagging the chip rally as profit-taking followed a two-day bounce and money rotated toward Micron and AMD.
PepsiCo (PEP) eased about 1.7% after a slight earnings miss, reporting $2.20 a share against the $2.23 consensus on revenue of $24.18 billion, a shade under estimates. International demand stayed strong, but North American food and beverage volumes softened as shoppers traded down, and the reaffirmed full-year outlook was not enough to offset the volume signal.
Key Macro Data Today
Thursday's calendar was thin but pointed, and the labor read leaned firm.
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims (wk 7/4) | 215K | 218K | Below forecast; labor still tight |
The claims reading, the lowest in three weeks, hands the Fed's hike camp another data point and is part of why September hike odds jumped during the session. The Treasury also sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 pm, a routine afternoon read on demand for long-dated paper with the yield near 5%.
Notable Earnings This Session
The second-quarter season cracked open with one marquee name and an otherwise quiet slate.
Pre-Open
PepsiCo (PEP) opened the reporting season with a slight miss and a reaffirmed outlook (see Top Movers). The signal for staples is the North American consumer: volumes softened as budgets tightened, a caution that will follow every packaged-food name into the quarter.
Post-Close
The after-close slate was bare. Delta Air Lines (DAL) opens the airline season before Friday's bell, with the Street looking for $1.48 a share on revenue of $18.78 billion; Delta has topped Wall Street's earnings consensus four quarters running.
Drivers
1. The SK Hynix listing is the week's real test. The Korean memory maker priced its Nasdaq shares late Thursday and starts trading Friday under the ticker SKHY, in what would rank as the largest American depositary receipt debut on record at $29 billion. How the stock holds up will tell subscribers whether this week's chip bounce has real buyers behind it or was a two-day cover of oversold positions, with memory pricing the question the market keeps circling back to.
2. Delta Air Lines reports before the open and sets the tone for travel demand into the back half of the year. Revenue is expected to grow near 13% while earnings fall almost 30% from a year ago, the scissors of higher labor and fuel costs against a full-price consumer, and management's read on corporate versus leisure bookings will matter more than the headline.
3. Oil is the variable that can undo the calm. WTI near $72.50 and Brent near $77 have taken back part of the geopolitical premium on the view that Gulf shipping keeps flowing, but Trump's blockade talk and the threat to strike Iran "hard again" leave the Strait of Hormuz one headline away from repricing. Tanker traffic through the strait is the signal, and it stayed normal on Thursday.
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