Indexes

The ceasefire that had capped oil and calmed equities for a week fell apart before the opening bell, and the market spent Wednesday sorting winners from losers rather than selling everything at once. President Trump declared the memorandum with Tehran effectively over after the two sides traded fresh strikes across the Gulf, and with Washington also revoking the waiver that let Iranian crude reach buyers, Brent spiked toward $80 intraday before settling near $76.60, up about 6%. The damage concentrated in the rate- and credit-sensitive corners of the market: the Dow, heavy with banks and industrials, dropped 586 points, or 1.11%, to 52,339.15, with JPMorgan and Visa each off about 2%. What kept the broad market from a worse day was semiconductors, the very group that had led the two prior sessions lower. Nvidia rose 3.5% on a report that Beijing will let its largest AI firms buy the company's H200 chips, and Broadcom jumped 4.8% on a $30 billion Apple supply agreement, enough to lift the Nasdaq Composite to a 0.15% gain even as the S&P 500 slipped 0.35% to 7,477.62. The number that framed the day was the roughly one-point gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq: an energy-and-chips bid set against a cyclical retreat, not a wholesale flight from risk.

Sector Heat Map

The board split cleanly along the day's two stories, the oil spike and the rate scare, with only energy and the chip end of technology able to hold green.

Nine of eleven sectors fell, and the two that rose were the ones levered to the day's shocks; the selling ran through the rate- and growth-sensitive middle of the market, which is why the Dow fell far harder than the Nasdaq.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

The bond market again refused its usual crisis role. Yields held near two-week highs rather than falling, because an oil shock revives inflation risk and the June minutes handed the hawks fresh cover, a combination that outweighs the reflex to buy Treasuries when missiles fly. The dollar drew the haven flow instead, and gold eased as the currency and real yields firmed.

Technicals

The S&P 500 closed about 0.8% under Monday's 7,537 record but stayed above its rising 20- and 50-day averages, with first support near 7,455 and the record the level to reclaim. The Nasdaq Composite, lifted by chips, edged back toward 25,860 and held inside the June breakout zone that has framed the advance. On rates, the 10-year at 4.55% sits near the top of its two-week range; the spring high near 4.69% is the next marker if the selling extends, while the 2-year at 4.18% stays penned by the Fed's hold. The cleanest breakout of the day was Broadcom, which cleared the top of its June range on the Apple agreement; its intraday path is below. Working the other way, JPMorgan lost the shelf near $292 that had supported it since June as the credit-sensitive trade came apart.

Broadcom (AVGO), hourly: a gap higher and a steady climb after the $30 billion Apple supply deal.

Top Movers

Gainers

Broadcom (AVGO) climbed about 4.8%, the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, after Apple committed to buy more than $30 billion of its US-made connectivity chips over five years. The market read it two ways: a multiyear revenue anchor for Broadcom's wireless business, and confirmation that Apple will keep designing around Broadcom silicon rather than bring it in-house. The $1.5 billion Fort Collins expansion gave the deal a reshoring stamp that plays well in Washington, and chip-equipment names firmed alongside it.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose about 3.5%, reversing two days of losses, after Bloomberg reported that Beijing will let Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek buy its H200 processors. Even with a possible cap below 200,000 units and a training-only restriction, the report reopened a China channel the market had written off, and Marvell and the memory names firmed in sympathy.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) each added around 2% as crude jumped, extending the energy complex's run as the one direct way to trade a supply shock.

Losers

JPMorgan (JPM) fell about 2%, leading a broad bank retreat as the oil jump and the hawkish minutes raised the risk that higher-for-longer rates crimp loan demand and credit quality. Visa slid with it, and the group did most of the damage to the Dow.

Home Depot (HD) dropped about 3%, the weakest Dow component, on the same rate worry that has dogged housing-linked names all summer.

GE Vernova (GEV) also fell about 3%, handing back part of a strong run as higher yields pressured the richly valued power-equipment trade.

Levi Strauss (LEVI) eased about 2% ahead of its after-close report, the session's one marquee result and an early read on discretionary spending and how tariffs are landing in apparel costs; analysts looked for roughly $0.24 in earnings on $1.52 billion in revenue. The airlines fell in sympathy with the fuel spike, Delta among them, with its own report due Friday.

Nvidia (NVDA), daily: a 3.5% bounce off the two-day chip slide on the China H200 report.

JPMorgan (JPM), daily: losing its June shelf as banks led the Dow lower.

Key Macro Data Today

The Fed minutes were the day's scheduled event; the rest of the calendar was second-tier.

The minutes confirmed a committee divided nine to nine over whether another hike is needed this year, but every word predated Friday's soft payrolls report, which is why September hike odds still eased to about 55% from roughly two-thirds a week ago.

Notable Earnings This Session

Pre-Open

The pre-open slate was effectively empty; second-quarter season does not begin in earnest until the large banks open the books on July 14.

Post-Close

After the close, Levi Strauss (LEVI) was the one name worth watching, a read on how freely shoppers are spending and on how tariffs are filtering into apparel prices.

Drivers

1. Whether Wednesday's exchange proves a contained flare-up or the opening of a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will set the tone for every risk asset. WTI near $72.80 and Brent near $76.60 already carry a war premium, and the usual pressure valve is narrow: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories sit at their lowest since 1983, leaving little room for a release to blunt another spike. The tell to watch is whether shippers keep transiting the strait or begin rerouting, the line between a headline and a lasting supply problem.

2. The minutes settled little. With the committee split nine to nine and Chair Warsh keeping his own view off the record, the September debate now turns on incoming data. Thursday's jobless claims are the next scheduled reading, and the 10-year at 4.55% has room toward its spring high near 4.69% if the labor market holds firm.

3. The semiconductor bounce did the heavy lifting Wednesday, but it rests on a report about Chinese purchases that Beijing has yet to formalize and an Apple deal already in the price. The next hard test is fundamental rather than headline-driven, and it begins when JPMorgan and the other large banks report on July 14.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily: a modest pullback from Monday's record as the oil shock hit cyclicals.

Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE), daily: another leg higher as crude jumped on the Gulf strikes.