Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jul 8
- US forces struck more than 80 Iranian targets overnight; WTI jumped about 5% to $74 and Brent neared $77.
- Stock futures fell across the board, with the S&P down 0.9%, the Dow down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%, and the VIX climbed to 18.
- June FOMC minutes land at 2 p.m. ET: nine of nineteen policymakers penciled in at least one more 2026 rate hike.
Indexes
The calm that carried the Dow above 53,000 on Monday broke overnight, and the trigger was not the market's own machinery but the Persian Gulf. After three commercial ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command hit more than 80 Iranian targets, Iran said it fired on American facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, and Washington revoked the waiver that had let Iranian crude reach buyers. Oil gapped higher and equity futures sold off in tandem.
| Future | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ES) | 7,486.00 | -0.86% | Back below Tuesday's 7,504 close |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) | 29,040.00 | -1.20% | Chips lead the retreat again |
| Dow (YM) | 52,622.00 | -1.08% | Surrenders the 53,000 line |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) | 2,962.90 | -1.20% | Slips further under 3,000 |
Europe opened firmly lower, with only energy shares in the green. Britain's FTSE 100 fell about 1.5%, Germany's DAX dropped roughly 2.2%, France's CAC 40 lost close to 2%, and the broad Stoxx 600 gave back about 1.5%. Asia split along its exposure: Tokyo and Seoul, heavy in chips and reliant on imported crude, took the brunt, while Hong Kong and Taipei held firmer and Australia's ASX 200 finished flat as banks and energy offset weaker miners.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The bond market is not offering its usual haven this time. Yields rose rather than fell, because the shock is an energy-supply shock that revives inflation risk, and that outweighs the reflex to buy Treasuries in a crisis. The dollar caught a bid and gold, oddly for a war-escalation morning, slipped as the currency and real yields firmed.
| Rates & Vol | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.14% | Anchored by the Fed's pause |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.56% | One-month high on oil |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.00% | Back at the round number |
| 2s10s spread | +42 bp | Steeper as the long end sells |
| VIX | 18.15 | Up from 15.6, a two-week high |
| FX & Commodities | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.0 | Haven demand lifts it above 101 |
| WTI Crude | $74.10 | Up roughly 5% on the strikes |
| Brent Crude | $76.50 | Highest since late June |
| Gold | $4,070 | Eases as the dollar firms |
| Nat Gas | $3.30 | Firmer on Gulf LNG risk |
Technicals
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,504, and this morning's futures point to an open near 7,460, which would drop the index onto first support around 7,470 and leave the July 6 record of 7,537 as the level to reclaim. A clean break of 7,470 opens the door toward 7,400. The Nasdaq Composite at 25,819 sits just above its June breakout shelf near 25,600. On rates, the 10-year at 4.56% has pushed to the top of its range; a close above 4.60% would put the spring high near 4.69% back in play, while the 2-year at 4.14% stays boxed in by the Fed's hold. Energy is where the action sits this morning. The sector ETF gapped above a two-month base at the open, while Micron, which lost its 20-day average on Tuesday, is testing lower again.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts. Exxon Mobil (XOM), near $152, is clearing the top of the range it has held since May as crude spikes, with the spring high the next marker overhead if oil sustains the move. The broader energy complex broke out with it, the one group catching a bid on a red morning.
Breakdowns. Micron (MU), around $938, lost its 20-day average on Tuesday's chip selling and is pressing lower again, with Monday's low the last shelf before a deeper pullback. Nvidia (NVDA), near $197, is sliding back toward its multi-week low and risks losing $195, a level that has held on each recent test.
Top Movers
Gainers
Exxon Mobil (XOM) traded higher near $152, extending Tuesday's roughly 3% gain as WTI jumped about 5% on the overnight strikes. Integrated oil is the most direct way the market has to express a supply shock, and the read for the group is simple: as long as Hormuz stays hazardous, the crude premium sticks. Chevron and ConocoPhillips advanced alongside it.
Losers
Micron (MU) slipped again from about $938, still working off Tuesday's memory-driven decline as risk came out of chips. The pressure is valuation and sentiment rather than any change in its sold-out high-bandwidth memory book.
Nvidia (NVDA) eased toward $197 with the group, the AI-hardware trade giving back ground for a second session.
American Airlines (AAL) fell from $17.20 as the jet-fuel spike hit the carriers; Delta and United also traded lower into Delta's report on Friday, which now lands with fuel costs moving against it.
Macro Calendar
| Event | Time ET | Note |
|---|---|---|
| June FOMC minutes | 2:00 pm | The session's main event |
| 10-Year note auction | 1:00 pm | Demand read after Tuesday's 3-year |
| Wholesale inventories (May) | 10:00 am | Second-tier |
The minutes are the release that matters. They cover Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, which ended in a unanimous hold at 3.50%–3.75% but a projection showing nine of nineteen policymakers expecting at least one more hike this year. The market will read the record for how many of those nine are voting members, because a hawkish tilt concentrated among non-voters implies a smaller September coalition than the dot count suggests. One caveat travels with the whole exercise: the meeting predates Friday's soft payrolls report.
Earnings Today
The before-open slate is bare, with the S&P 500 calendar effectively empty. After the close, Levi Strauss (LEVI) is the one name worth watching, a read on discretionary spending and on how tariffs are filtering into apparel costs. The heavy reporting starts next week when the big banks open second-quarter season.
Drivers
1. Oil holds the session. Whether the overnight strikes prove a contained exchange or the start of a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will set the tone for every risk asset today. WTI near $74 and Brent near $76.50 already carry a fresh war premium, and the usual pressure valve is narrower than usual: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories sit at their weakest since 1983, leaving little room for a stockpile release to blunt a further spike.
2. The FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. ET are the day's scheduled event, and they arrive into a market already leaning hawkish. Fed funds futures now imply roughly one and a half hikes over the coming year, a sharp reversal from the rate-cut pricing of the spring. If the record shows the June hold was a close call, yields that are already at a one-month high have room to press higher; the 10-year note auction at 1 p.m. offers an earlier tell on how much supply the market can absorb.
3. The chip trade remains the market's other fault line. Micron and Nvidia are lower for a second day on the same valuation worry that Samsung's cautious memory commentary stirred, and a risk-off tape gives sellers cover. The next hard test of the AI story is fundamental, not technical, and it arrives Tuesday, July 14, when JPMorgan and the other large banks open earnings season.