Ringside · Pre-Bell · August 21
- Squeezed shorts drove bitcoin beyond $77,000, a 22.8% gain since last Friday
- Flash purchasing managers' surveys land at 9:45 Eastern, with prices paid the number to find
- Ross Stores indicated 8.0% higher at $247.26 after a $2.66 quarter against $1.92 expected
Indexes
Five sessions of damage are what American futures are trying to walk back this morning, and the attempt is a modest one. Every major benchmark is on course for a losing week, the S&P 500 down 1.86% since last Friday and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.48%, which would end a three-week winning streak for both, per Reuters. The cause sits in the government bond market rather than in anything corporate: yields rose all week on debt-supply and inflation worries, the thirty-year touched its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, and Wednesday's intervention from the Treasury bought exactly one session of calm. Asia was the constructive part of the overnight, led by Hong Kong.
| Futures | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,687.75 | +0.25% | |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,479.50 | +0.41% | Best of the four |
| YM (Dow) | 53,037.00 | +0.31% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 3,018.60 | +0.34% | Reclaims 3,000 |
Futures levels above were read at 6:48 a.m. Eastern and measured from Thursday's settlements. European trading has been similarly restrained, with Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain all within a percent of where they finished Thursday as the London session ran, so they get this clause instead of four table rows.
| Asia | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | 26,009.46 | +1.21% | Two sessions higher |
| Kospi | 6,912.95 | +0.88% | |
| CSI 300 | 4,619.55 | +0.58% | |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,016.36 | -0.30% | Tokyo the exception |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The front of the curve has been the immovable object of this month. Two-year paper has held near 4.19% while the ten-year has climbed to 4.696%, leaving 50.6 basis points between them.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.19% | Wednesday's H.15 reading |
| 5-Year | 4.387% | |
| 10-Year | 4.696% | Erased Wednesday's rally |
| 30-Year | 5.237% | Under Tuesday's 5.285% |
The five-, ten- and thirty-year levels are Thursday's closes and the two-year is Wednesday's H.15 reading, the most recent published. Trading Economics had the ten-year at 4.693% in early European hours, and Benzinga quoted the two-year at 4.18%. For the table underneath, this letter uses one benchmark series, Trading Economics, read shortly before 7:00 a.m. Eastern, so that a single contract convention survives Thursday's September crude expiry.
| Commodity / FX | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,580.66 | +1.44% | Still under January's high |
| Silver | $69.76 | +2.48% | Two-month high |
| WTI crude | $86.07 | -0.88% | |
| Brent crude | $93.04 | -0.79% | |
| Natural gas | $2.776 | +1.58% | |
| Copper | $6.572 | +1.74% | |
| Dollar Index | 98.637 | -0.26% | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1704 | +0.22% | |
| USD/JPY | 158.57 | -0.30% |
Precious metals are the one asset class with an unbroken week. Silver at $69.76 is the strongest of them, and gold at $4,580.66 remains far below the high it set in January despite the move. Crude is giving back a fraction of Thursday's 2.9% jump while Washington and Tehran trade statements rather than concessions.
Technicals
Thursday's close leaves the S&P 500 at 7,641.16, which is 0.13% above its 20-day average of 7,631.31 and 1.44% above the 50-day of 7,532.90. Recovering the August 13 record of 7,798.99 would take a 2.07% advance, and nothing has come close since. The Nasdaq 100 is the weaker of the two: at 29,213.16 it closed 0.33% under its 50-day of 29,308.88, the first close beneath that line since August 6, with the 20-day at 29,087.15 as the next support. Small caps are wedged between their own averages, the Russell 2000 at 2,992.43 sitting 0.26% under a 20-day of 3,000.09 and 0.34% over a 50-day of 2,982.24, and the futures are indicating a return above the round number at the open. Rates offer no comparable indecision: the ten-year has now retraced the entire buyback rally in two sessions, and until the thirty-year trades back under 5.19%, where it closed on Wednesday, the long end has not conceded anything.
Breakouts
Ross Stores (ROST) would open above both averages it lost this month. The indicated $247.26 clears a 20-day of $246.81 and a 50-day of $234.33 in a single gap, and puts the 52-week high of $257.00 within 3.9%. Strategy (MSTR) at $122.39 in early trading stands 22.8% above its 50-day of $99.70 after spending most of August below it; the 100-day at $127.34 is the first real obstacle, 4.0% higher.
Breakdowns
OSI Systems (OSIS) is indicated at $189.98, which would be a fresh 52-week low, taking out the $197.27 that had marked the bottom of its range. Its 200-day average of $254.91 is 34.2% above that price, so there is no nearby structure to argue with. Flowers Foods (FLO) at $6.84 would print a 52-week low of its own, having closed Thursday at $7.10.
Top Movers
Gainers
Ross Stores (ROST), +8.0% to $247.26. The off-price chain earned $2.66 a share against a $1.92 consensus and its own guidance of $1.85 to $1.93, with roughly 60 cents of that coming from tariff refunds. Sales rose 13% to $6.26 billion and same-store sales gained 10% on traffic rather than ticket, which is the distinction that matters after Walmart reported 2.6% American comparable growth on Thursday. Management lifted the full-year forecast to $8.61 to $8.77, and even excluding the $253 million refund the operating margin expanded 205 basis points against a plan of 130 to 150. TJX and Burlington are the read-across for the rest of the group.
Strategy (MSTR), +8.9% to $122.39. The largest corporate holder of bitcoin is the highest-beta way to own the overnight move, and it has gained 31.5% since last Friday's close of $93.04.
Coinbase (COIN), +5.4% to $181.61. The exchange is up 22.3% on the week, and its 200-day average of $199.25 is the level that would confirm the recovery rather than the 100-day it already sits above. Trading volume, not legislation, is what converts a bitcoin rally into Coinbase revenue, and the Clarity Act has still not passed the Senate.
Robinhood (HOOD), +4.4% to $99.24. The brokerage would open back above a 200-day average of $96.28 after closing Thursday at $95.10, with the 50-day of $99.87 immediately overhead.
Losers
OSI Systems (OSIS), -12.9% to $189.98. The security-screening and electronics manufacturer earned a record $3.78 a share on a non-GAAP basis in the fourth quarter, but revenue fell 4% to $484.1 million and missed, and fiscal 2027 sales guidance of $1.875 billion to $1.930 billion has a midpoint roughly 2% under consensus. The board authorized another million shares of repurchases, bringing the remaining total to 1,078,731, an announcement that reads as a floor and rarely functions as one on the day.
Flowers Foods (FLO), -4.0% to $6.84. The bakery company earned 21 cents a share against 23 cents expected on sales of $1.193 billion, and it cut its full-year outlook, which is the part doing the damage.
Key Macro Data Today
One release carries the session, and it arrives fifteen minutes after the open.
| Release | Time (ET) | Prior | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global flash PMIs (Aug) | 9:45 a.m. | 54.5 | July composite; manufacturing sub-index the one to read |
July's composite reading of 54.5, up from 51.9 in June, was the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since October 2025, and it came with a detail that has aged badly: input cost inflation ran at its highest level since November 2022 and pushed output prices to a one-year high. Two regional factory surveys have already surprised to the upside this week, so the manufacturing sub-index is close to priced. The prices-paid components are not.
Earnings Today
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) is the only name of substance before the bell, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern, and there is nothing worth naming after it. Its grocery and gasoline mix makes it the week's fourth read on the household, after Home Depot, Walmart and Ross Stores, and the membership renewal rate is where the value shopper shows up first. The shares were quoted at $91.50 in early trading, still under a 50-day average of $91.55.
Drivers
- Purchasing managers' surveys at 9:45 a.m. Eastern close a week in which the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed readings both landed far above forecast. A third strong manufacturing figure would leave the long end of the curve with no reason to retrace anything, but the sub-index worth finding is prices paid. With CME's FedWatch showing roughly a one-in-three chance of a September increase, a hot cost reading is what moves that number, and it moves the thirty-year with it.
- Crypto-linked equities have to be carried over a weekend. Better than $4 billion of positions have been liquidated across the market in two days, the large majority of them bearish, per CoinDesk, and forced covering is a different buyer than conviction. Bitcoin was quoted at $77,344 on Friday morning, and Bloomberg reports that the week's advance would be its largest since March 2024 if it survives the last session. Strategy, Coinbase and Robinhood have each outrun the coin on a percentage basis since last Friday.
- Next week supplies what this one lacked. Bessent details the Iran plan at Monday's press conference, central bankers gather in Jackson Hole from Thursday the 27th with Chair Kevin Warsh giving his first keynote there on Friday the 28th, and Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday the 26th after the close.