Ringside · Post-Bell · August 21
- Purchasing managers pegged output at 56.0, the briskest expansion in fifty-two months.
- Utilities fell 2.28% with the thirty-year yield at 5.276%; Sempra alone lost 5.14%.
- Robinhood jumped 13.70% to $108.13 on private-market funds and a British crypto launch.
Indexes
Every index finished higher and almost none of them finished the week that way. One 9:45 a.m. Eastern release separated the winners from the losers: S&P Global's flash output survey read 56.0 versus 54.5 in July, with the services component at a twenty-month peak, and the firm now sees third-quarter growth near 3% annualized against 1.5% in the second quarter. Chris Williamson, its chief business economist, said the numbers showed "U.S. business is booming." Long-dated Treasuries took that as one more reason to retrace nothing, and the thirty-year yield closed at 5.276% against Thursday's 5.237%, which is why anything valued as a bond substitute spent the afternoon underwater. The Dow's 0.98% gain was more than double what the Nasdaq Composite managed, an odd ordering for a day built on strong growth. Five days of damage still stand: the S&P 500 lost 1.43% on the week and the Nasdaq Composite 2.05%, ending a three-week run of gains for both.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,674.37 | +0.43% | 7,660.06 – 7,697.11 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,180.46 | +0.43% | 26,049.29 – 26,269.85 |
| Dow Jones | 53,277.01 | +0.98% | 52,768.87 – 53,355.92 |
| Russell 2000 | 3,017.87 | +0.85% | 3,000.05 – 3,020.24 |
| VIX | 15.13 | -5.50% | 15.08 – 15.88 |
Sector Heat Map
Ten of eleven sectors rose, and the eleventh accounted for most of what happened.
| Sector | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Materials (XLB) | +2.14% | Copper and gold both firm |
| Health Care (XLV) | +1.29% | Third gain in four days |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +1.15% | Retail results carried it |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.93% | |
| Staples (XLP) | +0.79% | |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.65% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.27% | |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.11% | Chips capped the upside |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 0.00% | |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.17% | |
| Utilities (XLU) | -2.28% | Worst down day in August |
Cyclicals beat defensives everywhere but staples, and the utilities loss was more than double any other decline the sector has taken since July ended.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The front of the curve has not moved all August while the far end keeps grinding higher, which is the shape that punishes utilities and rewards banks.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.19% | Thursday's H.15 reading |
| 5-Year | 4.424% | |
| 10-Year | 4.738% | Up 4.2 basis points |
| 30-Year | 5.276% | Second-highest close of 2026 |
Only the two-year is stale, taken from Thursday's H.15 release; the other three are Friday closes on one benchmark series. Against that two-year, the gap to the ten-year is roughly 55 basis points.
| Commodity / FX | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Oct) | $87.06 | +0.26% |
| Brent crude | $94.01 | +0.25% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,665.80 | +2.07% |
| Natural gas | $2.795 | +1.27% |
| Copper | $6.582 | +1.75% |
| Dollar Index | 98.845 | +0.10% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1680 | -0.06% |
Each commodity level above is an exchange settlement rather than the later screen quote, and crude is the October contract now that September has expired. Both oil benchmarks booked a second straight weekly advance, which Reuters attributed to the American blockade and the threat of harsher penalties on Iranian exports. Gold rose the most of the group and still sits beneath the high it set in January.
Technicals
The S&P 500 sits 0.39% clear of a 20-day average at 7,644.43 and 1.77% over the 50-day at 7,541.05, leaving the August 13 close of 7,798.99 a 1.6% climb away. Weaker is the Nasdaq 100: at 29,308.86 it finished 0.05% under a 50-day average of 29,324.90, a line it also closed beneath on Thursday. Small caps did the repair work, the Russell 2000 at 3,017.87 recovering its 20-day of 3,004.48 and the round number it lost on Wednesday, though the August 14 closing high of 3,068.42 remains 1.7% above.
Rates offered no such ambiguity. Ten-year and thirty-year yields both closed at the top of the range they have held through the back half of August, and Tuesday's 5.285% on the long bond is the level that has capped it.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Target (TGT) closed at $165.44, a 52-week closing high, and its intraday $165.48 was the best price the stock has seen in a year. With the 20-day average at $150.79, the distance from trend is 9.7% and nothing overhead is left on the chart.
Deere (DE) at $647.47 extended Thursday's earnings move, clearing a 50-day of $605.26 by a wide margin, with the 52-week closing high of $662.49 now 2.3% higher. Merck (MRK) also finished at a 52-week closing high, $152.55, which puts it 19.2% over a 50-day average of $128.00 and in an unusual spot for a large drugmaker.
Breakdowns
Sempra (SRE) dropped to $82.89, under its 20-day of $86.68, its 50-day of $90.32 and its 200-day of $91.43. The 52-week closing low at $79.41 is 4.2% further down and is the only structure left.
Semiconductors added a third session of damage. The VanEck fund (SMH) finished at $560.42, beneath a 20-day average of $562.94 and 4.9% under the 50-day at $589.30. Chips have lost 4.66% in five sessions against less than a third of that for the broad market.
Levels, Revisited
Micron (MU) recovered the 50-day average it gave up on Wednesday, closing at $966.78 against a line at $964.59. Two sessions was all it took.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at $270.24 held Tuesday's breakout, within 1.2% of the high it set that day. Deere's $620.94 breakout from Thursday added another 4.27%, the strongest follow-through of the week.
TJX Companies (TJX) has not bounced. At $140.53 the stock stays below all three of its averages, with the one-year closing low of $135.50 sitting 3.7% underneath.
Coinbase (COIN) closed at $186.49, still 6.1% short of the 200-day average at $198.53 that Thursday's issue named as the real test. Home Depot (HD) at $335.61 stayed under the averages it lost, and Boeing (BA) at $214.20 has not retaken its 200-day at $219.52 either.
Top Movers
Gainers
Robinhood Markets (HOOD), +13.70% to $108.13. The brokerage moved on corporate news rather than on the coin: it is accelerating launches of closed-end funds holding private companies, with Ventures Fund II priced at $25 a share and targeting $225.5 million to $255.5 million, and it opened crypto trading to eligible British customers through Bitstamp UK. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $123 from $118 the same morning. The advance took back a 200-day average at $96.08 surrendered only a week ago. Coinbase (COIN) rose 8.20% to $186.49 and Strategy (MSTR) 6.10% to $119.25 alongside bitcoin, which Yahoo Finance called its best week in two years.
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), +5.61% to $96.42. Adjusted earnings of $1.36 a share beat a $1.17 consensus on revenue of $6.09 billion against $5.97 billion expected, with comparable club sales up 11.9%, or 3.1% excluding the fuel pumps. Membership fee income grew 9.9% to $135.6 million, and guidance rose to $4.60-$4.80 a share from $4.40-$4.60. After Walmart's Thursday disappointment, the read for value retailers is that the trade-down shopper exists and is filling the tank.
Tesla (TSLA), +5.14% to $362.86. Nevada's Transportation Authority voted unanimously to grant a commercial robotaxi permit covering up to 5,000 Cybercab vehicles in Clark County. The stock still closed under a 50-day average of $365.86.
Target (TGT), +4.54% to $165.44. Wednesday's quarter is still being priced in: revenue of $26.54 billion rose 5.3% and operating income nearly doubled to $2.56 billion, lifting the margin to 9.6% from 5.2%. Wolfe Research upgraded the shares to Outperform and Gordon Haskett moved its target to $170.
Ross Stores (ROST), +4.39% to $239.04. The off-price chain earned $2.66 a share against a $1.92 consensus on sales up 13% to $6.26 billion. Buyers gave back half of it from an indication near $247 before the open, which says something about how much of the beat was the $253 million of tariff refunds inside it.
Losers
Marvell Technology (MRVL), -5.57% to $237.04. Two sessions of buying on the company's arrangement with Alphabet carried the stock to $251.01 on Thursday, and Friday handed a chunk of that back with no fresh news attached. Shares remain 6.77% higher on the week and above a 50-day average of $233.85, with options pricing a move near 12% around next Thursday's results.
OSI Systems (OSIS), -5.21% to $206.73. The security-screening manufacturer traded as low as $186.50, a fresh 52-week low, after guiding fiscal 2027 revenue to a midpoint roughly 2% under consensus. It then climbed all afternoon and closed above the $197.73 that had been the floor of its range, a better outcome than the 12.9% decline indicated before the open.
Flowers Foods (FLO), -2.11% to $6.95, a 52-week closing low after Thursday's cut to the full-year outlook.
Key Macro Data Today
One release carried the session, and it did two things at once.
| Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flash output index (Aug) | — | 54.5 | 56.0 |
| Flash services PMI (Aug) | 54.0 | 54.6 | 56.8 |
| Flash manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 53.9 | 53.9 | 53.2 |
Services did the lifting and factories went the other way, the flash manufacturing output index falling to 51.9 from 53.9, a thirteen-month low that S&P Global attributed to fading safety-stock building and supplier delays at their worst in four years. What matters for September is the cost side: input inflation ran at a six-month low and prices charged at a ten-month low. Strong volumes with cooling costs is the friendly version of this for equities, and it did not stop long-dated yields from rising anyway.
Notable Earnings This Session
A thin summer Friday, with one report worth reading and nothing behind it.
Pre-Open
BJ's Wholesale Club is covered above. Flowers Foods also reported, earning 21 cents against 23 cents expected on sales of $1.193 billion.
Post-Close
Nothing reported after the bell.
Next week ends the lull. Nvidia publishes second-quarter results on Wednesday the 26th after the close, and Marvell follows on Thursday the 27th.
Drivers
- The thirty-year yield enters next week 0.9 basis points below Tuesday's 5.285%, the peak of the current move. Treasury's expanded buyback bought one session of relief on Wednesday and the market took it back within two. Secretary Bessent details the Iran plan at a Monday press conference; whether he adds anything on the size of those operations is what the bond desk will listen for.
- Kevin Warsh speaks in Wyoming on Friday the 28th, his first keynote as Fed chair, with the market pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a September rate increase rather than a cut. The published theme is financial innovation and payments, which is not the subject anyone will be waiting on.
- Nvidia (NVDA) reports Wednesday after the close. The stock lost 4.64% this week and finished Friday at $214.72, holding above a 50-day average of $207.58 and 8.9% below its 52-week closing high of $235.74.